Adaptive Clustering Long Short-Term Memory Network for Short-Term Power Load Forecasting
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- (1)
- To enhance the accuracy of short-term load forecasting (STLF), we utilize a bee-foraging learning particle swarm optimization (BFLPSO) algorithm [27] to adaptively optimize the parameters of MDSC, thereby improving clustering performance.
- (2)
- We employ a 9-dimensional load feature vector as SVM classification features to determine the similar cluster for the prediction day. Subsequently, LSTM is utilized to generate the power load curve for the predicted day.
- (3)
- Experiments are conducted using one year of historical load data from a substation in Foshan City, Guangdong Province, China. The experimental results validate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm.
2. Clustering Process
2.1. MDSC Clustering Algorithm
2.2. Optimizing the Parameters of MDSC with BFLPSO
2.3. The Steps of the Clustering Process
3. Prediction Process
3.1. Load Characteristic Vector
3.2. Similar Cluster Selection Based on SVM
3.3. LSTM Training
3.4. The Steps of Prediction Algorithm
4. Experiment and Analysis
4.1. Experimental Environment
4.2. Experimental Data
4.3. Analysis of Experimental Results
4.3.1. Experiment 1: Clustering Experiment
4.3.2. Experiment 2: Prediction Experiment
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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Algorithm | The Number of Clusters | SSE | DBI |
---|---|---|---|
BFLPSO-MDSC | 3 | 1357.22 | 0.14 |
PSO-MDSC | 3 | 1365.77 | 0.16 |
DBSCAN | 3 | 1540.66 | 1.48 |
K-Means | 3 | 1528.11 | 0.76 |
Prediction | Statistical Project | ACLSTM | PSO-MDSC-LSTM | LSTM | RNN | GRU |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
the first day | MAPE(%) | 8.05 | 8.21 | 8.27 | 8.18 | 8.55 |
EMAX(%) | 39.46 | 38.66 | 23.69 | 43.27 | 28.77 | |
EMIN(%) | 0.30 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.55 | |
MAE | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.15 | |
MSE | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | |
R2 | 0.65 | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.63 | |
the second day | MAPE(%) | 11.45 | 11.61 | 14.67 | 15.60 | 16.32 |
EMAX(%) | 44.97 | 60.02 | 35.82 | 50.44 | 44.90 | |
EMIN(%) | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.40 | 4.88 | |
MAE | 0.19 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.19 | |
MSE | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.05 | |
R2 | 0.12 | −0.29 | −0.49 | −0.47 | 0.09 |
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Qi, Y.; Luo, H.; Luo, Y.; Liao, R.; Ye, L. Adaptive Clustering Long Short-Term Memory Network for Short-Term Power Load Forecasting. Energies 2023, 16, 6230. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16176230
Qi Y, Luo H, Luo Y, Liao R, Ye L. Adaptive Clustering Long Short-Term Memory Network for Short-Term Power Load Forecasting. Energies. 2023; 16(17):6230. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16176230
Chicago/Turabian StyleQi, Yuanhang, Haoyu Luo, Yuhui Luo, Rixu Liao, and Liwei Ye. 2023. "Adaptive Clustering Long Short-Term Memory Network for Short-Term Power Load Forecasting" Energies 16, no. 17: 6230. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16176230