Predicting Energy Savings of the UK Housing Stock under a Step-by-Step Energy Retrofit Scenario towards Net-Zero
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Context
1.2. Literature Review
Source | Location | Objective/Originality | Retrofitting Approach | Evaluation Criteria | Scenarios | Number of Reference Buildings |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
[18] | Greece | To use reference buildings of the Hellenic building stock for demonstrating the energy performance and the potential energy savings from typical and advanced energy conservation measures (ECMs). | Single-step renovation | −Thermal energy consumption savings (%) −Thermal energy consumption savings (%) | −Existing situation −Standard scenario (meets the requirements of the Greece national regulations) −Advanced scenario (higher energy efficient measures) | 24 |
[19] | Ireland | To investigate the economic and carbon case for thermal retrofit measures to the Irish existing detached, oil centrally heated, rural housing stock. | Single-step renovation | −Heat energy consumption (kWh/m2) −Cost savings (Millions €) −Carbon savings (Millions of tonnes of CO2) | −Existing situation −Standard scenario (meets the Irish National Insulation Programme Better Energy Homes grant-aided scheme) | 10 |
[12] | Region of South Tyrol in northern Italy | To generate retrofit scenarios for building stocks according to available budget for building retrofit. The methodology creates a step-by-step retrofit plan and prioritises the buildings to be retrofitted using a Levelized Cost of Saved Energy (LCSE). | Step-by-step retrofit plan | −Energy saved in % Specific cost (€/m 2) −Levelized Cost of Saved Energy (€/kWh) | −Existing situation −Standard scenario (minimum legal and normative requirements) −Deep renovation scenario (nearly zero-energy building) | 16 |
[23] | Sweden | To describe in detail the current energy usage of Swedish residential buildings, and to assess the technical energy savings and cost-effectiveness associated with implementing the EEMs in the Swedish residential stock. | Single-step renovation | −Technical energy saving potentials (TWh/year) −CO2 emissions (Mt CO2/year) −Potential reductions (% of baseline) | −Existing situation −Standard scenario (meets the specific energy targets of Swedish regulations) | 300 |
[20] | Piedmont region. (Italy) | To use reference buildings to investigate potentialities of energy savings and CO2 emission reductions from the present state to a renovated state of the residential building stocks of the Piedmont region. | Single-step renovation | −CO2 emissions for space heating and Domestic Hot Water (DHW) in tonnes −Annual primary energy demand for space heating and DHW in Gwh −Potential energy saving (% of baseline) | −Existing situation −Standard scenario (minimum legal and normative requirements) −Deep renovation scenario (nearly zero-energy building) | 32 |
[21] | Southern Italy (Bari) | To obtain an estimate, on an urban scale, of the energy needs and CO2 emissions of the public residential buildings of Bari. | Single-step renovation | −CO2 emissions (tonnes/year) −Specific primary energy demand (kWh/m2a) −Cost-benefit analysis was performed using the Net Present Value method (€) | −Existing situation −Standard scenario (minimum legal and normative requirements) −Deep renovation scenario (nearly zero-energy building) | 5 |
[22] | Italy | To investigate the energy saving and global cost reduction associated with the implementation of different energy refurbishment actions on the existing Italian residential buildings. | Single-step renovation | −Energy saving (%) −Payback period (years) −Primary energy savings [kWh/m2a] −Global cost reduction [€/m2] | −Existing situation −Deep renovation scenario (meet the requirements of Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy, and Sustainable Economic Development) | 120 |
[26] | Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic | To analyse heterogeneous data sources and collect the information of the housing stock under a common comparison framework of building typology data between countries. | Single-step renovation | −Primary energy saving potential (%) −The total primary energy demand for heating and DHW of the residential building stock (petajoule /year). | −Existing situation −Deep renovation (nearly zero-energy building) | 7 |
[25] | city of Bilbao, northern Spain | To propose the application of the cost optimal method on an urban scale, aiming to identify the suitable range of energy performance reasonable to promote in different types of buildings. | Single-step renovation | −Space heating demand (kWh/m2) −DHW solar contribution factors −Annual photovoltaic outputs (kWh/kW) −Global cost (€) −Payback period −Energy saving potential (%) | −Existing situation −Renovation levels ranging between the Spain Building Technical Code regulation compliance and EnerPHit levels. | 34 |
[24] | Catalonia (Spain) | To evaluate the potential of energetic savings of the dwellings in Catalonia and its economic impact, according to different scenarios of efficiency that have been defined according to current regulations. | Single-step renovation | −Heating and cooling energy demand (GWh/year) −CO2 Emissions (tonnes/year) −Total individual investment for each category dwelling (€) −Total investment for all building stock (€) −Cost of kg CO2 saved (€/kg CO2) | −Existing situation −Renovation according to Technical Code of Buildings (CTE) for Spain [8] −Renovation according to Ecoefficiency Decree (DEC) for Catalonia −Technical potential savings considering 100% rehabilitation −Potential savings considering 2% rehabilitation | 13 |
[9] | UK | To produce a UK stock model to evaluate the impact of LETI retrofit targets at a national level. | Single-step renovation | −Space heating demand (kWh/m2/year) −Energy use intensity (kWh/m2/year) | −Existing housing stock −LETI target range for retrofit | 486 |
1.3. Originality of the Work
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. The National Residential Building Typology
2.2. Energy Balance of Residential Buildings and Validation of the Model
- (1)
- Use the Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) software for the calculation of the energy consumption of the 20 typologies representing the UK housing stock. The Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) is the UK Government’s National Calculation Methodology for assessing the energy performance of dwellings.
- (2)
- Use the frequencies expressing the number of buildings per typology to derive the total energy consumption per typology. National statistics are used to quantify the number of buildings. The numbers of buildings in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland (see Table 2) were taken from the English Housing Survey 2019–20 [32], the Welsh Housing Conditions Survey 2017–18 [33], the Scottish House Condition Survey 2019 [34], and the Northern Ireland House Condition Survey 2016 [35], respectively. The heated floor area, the values of expenditure coefficient (for the space and water heating systems), and the characteristics of permanent dwellings for each of 20 typologies are based on information from BRE [36].
- (3)
- Sum up the thermal energy consumption of all classes to derive the balance of the energy consumption in the residential building sector.
- (4)
- Validate the energy balance against national data on energy consumption taken from the UK national statistics [37].
2.3. Elaboration of Step-by-Step Renovation Packages and Energy Performance Assessment
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Energy Balance Results
3.2. Energy Saving Potential
4. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Dwelling Type | England | Scotland | Wales | Northern Ireland | Existing Permanent UK + Predicted |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SFH Pre–1919 | 646 | 122 | 82 | 46 | 896 |
SFH 1919–1944 | 644 | 50 | 33 | 12 | 739 |
SFH 1945–1964 | 1086 | 33 | 32 | 41 | 1192 |
SFH 1965–1980 | 1502 | 115 | 92 | 69 | 1778 |
SFH Post 1980 | 1915 | 255 | 150 | 159 | 2479 + 124.36 |
TH Pre–1919 | 3211 | 116 | 245 | 30 | 3602 |
TH 1919–1944 | 2767 | 96 | 63 | 54 | 2980 |
TH 1945–1964 | 2674 | 313 | 166 | 80 | 3233 |
TH 1965–1980 | 1971 | 291 | 171 | 111 | 2544 |
TH Post 1980 | 1592 | 202 | 131 | 125 | 2050 + 102.84 |
MFH Pre–1919 | 996 | 58 | 18 | inc. within other categories | 1072 |
MFH 1919–1944 | 317 | 93 | inc. within other categories | inc. within other categories | 410 |
MFH 1945–1964 | 563 | 78 | inc. within other categories | inc. within other categories | 641 |
MFH 1965–1980 | 943 | 44 | inc. within other categories | inc. within other categories | 987 |
MFH Post–1980 | 1169 | 42 | inc. within other categories | inc. within other categories | 1211 + 60.75 |
AB Pre–1919 | 12 | 184 | inc. within other categories | 5 | 201 |
AB 1919–1944 | 21 | 34 | inc. within other categories | 2 | 57 |
AB 1945–1964 | 73 | 95 | 20 | 4 | 192 |
AB 1965–1980 | 187 | 98 | 40 | 9 | 334 |
AB Post–1980 | 97 | 177 | 60 | 32 | 366 + 18.36 |
Total permanent 2020 | 26,964 | ||||
Estimated permanent 2022 | 27,270 |
Dwelling Type | Number of Dwellings in Thousands | Average Heated Floor Area (m2) | Total Heated Floor Area—Entire UK Building Stock (Thousands m2) | Space Heating Demand (kWh/m2 Heated Floor Area) | Final Energy Consumption (kWh/m2 Heated Floor Area) | Total Space Heating Demand—Entire UK Building Stock (KTOE) | Total Final Energy Consumption—Entire UK Building Stock (KTOE) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SFH Pre–1919 | 896 | 198 | 177,408 | 211.65 | 284.99 | 3229.16 | 4348.13 |
SFH 1919–1944 | 739 | 153.41 | 113,369.99 | 251.2 | 323.11 | 2449.15 | 3150.30 |
SFH 1945–1964 | 1192 | 134.4 | 160,204.8 | 263 | 340.63 | 3623.51 | 4693.01 |
SFH 1965–1980 | 1778 | 123.08 | 218,836.24 | 192.83 | 273.15 | 3629.04 | 5140.58 |
SFH Post 1980 | 2603 | 149.35 | 388,758.05 | 64.43 | 105.41 | 2154.10 | 3524.08 |
TH Pre–1919 | 3602 | 104.62 | 376,841.24 | 249.12 | 349.53 | 8073.57 | 11,327.81 |
TH 1919–1944 | 2980 | 93.01 | 277,169.8 | 254.47 | 359.39 | 6065.70 | 8566.63 |
TH 1945–1964 | 3233 | 87.72 | 283,598.76 | 257.67 | 365.01 | 6284.44 | 8902.30 |
TH 1965–1980 | 2544 | 85.32 | 217,054.08 | 189.18 | 278.03 | 3531.36 | 5189.83 |
TH Post–1980 | 2121 | 98.4 | 208,706.4 | 62.96 | 114.88 | 1130.05 | 2061.91 |
MFH Pre–1919 | 1072 | 70 | 4200 | 189.44 | 196.48 | 68.43 | 70.97 |
MFH 1919–1944 | 410 | 60 | 24,600 | 211.98 | 156.23 | 448.46 | 330.53 |
MFH 1945–1964 | 641 | 63 | 40,383 | 203.77 | 210.46 | 707.68 | 730.93 |
MFH 1965–1980 | 987 | 62 | 61,194 | 168.6 | 174.34 | 887.29 | 917.50 |
MFH Post–1980 | 1271 | 62 | 78,802 | 59.79 | 81.16 | 405.20 | 550.04 |
AB Pre–1919 | 201 | 68 | 13,668 | 149.84 | 156.86 | 176.13 | 184.38 |
AB 1919–1944 | 57 | 59 | 3363 | 118.68 | 140.06 | 34.32 | 40.51 |
AB 1945–1964 | 192 | 56 | 10,752 | 186.29 | 188.52 | 172.26 | 174.32 |
AB 1965–1980 | 334 | 63 | 21,042 | 154.26 | 177.11 | 279.15 | 320.50 |
AB Post–1980 | 384 | 68 | 26,112 | 74.11 | 90.96 | 166.42 | 204.26 |
Total calculated (KTOE) = | 43,515.43 | 60,428.51 | |||||
Total statistics = | 22,394.24 | 37,751.49 | |||||
Overestimation | 48% | 37% |
Year | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final energy consumption (KTOE) | 49,410 | 40,883 | 44,441 | 44,891 | 38,680 | 40,281 | 39,713 | 38,446 | 39,507 | 38,395 | 39,276 |
Space heating demand (KTOE) | 34,627.33 | 25,694.56 | 28,456.15 | 28,522.22 | 23,904.19 | 25,386.24 | 26,133 | 23,640 | 24,232 | 23,386 | 23,826 |
Year | Estimated Total Final Energy Consumption (KTOE) | Estimated Space Heating Demand (KTOE) |
---|---|---|
2021 | 38,506.20 | 23,099.03 |
2022 | 37,751.49 | 22,394.24 |
Dwelling Type | Number of Dwellings in Thousands | Average Heated Floor Area (m2) | Total Heated Floor Area—Entire UK Building Stock (Thousands m2) | Adapted Space Heating Demand | Adapted Final Energy Demand (kWh/m2 Heated Floor Area) | Adapted Total Space Heating Demand—Entire UK Building Stock (KTOE) | Adapted Total Final Energy Consumption—Entire UK Building Stock (KTOE) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SFH Pre–1919 | 896 | 198 | 177,408 | 172 | 223 | 2627.12 | 3416.66 |
SFH 1919–1944 | 739 | 153.41 | 113,369.99 | 134 | 183 | 1306.77 | 1790.46 |
SFH 1945–1964 | 1192 | 134.4 | 160,204.80 | 108 | 155 | 1490.46 | 2147.10 |
SFH 1965–1980 | 1778 | 123.08 | 218,836.24 | 118 | 169 | 2232.23 | 3189.03 |
SFH Post–1980 | 2603 | 149.35 | 388,758.05 | 60 | 95 | 2030.73 | 3191.03 |
TH Pre–1919 | 3602 | 104.62 | 376,841.24 | 109 | 172 | 3538.34 | 5578.64 |
TH 1919–1944 | 2980 | 93.01 | 277,169.80 | 101 | 157 | 2426.57 | 3750.78 |
TH 1945–1964 | 3233 | 87.72 | 283,598.76 | 105 | 172 | 2581.38 | 4196.21 |
TH 1965–1980 | 2544 | 85.32 | 217,054.08 | 91 | 146 | 1703.33 | 2733.08 |
TH Post–1980 | 2121 | 98.4 | 208,706.40 | 68 | 114 | 1236.85 | 2060.62 |
MFH Pre–1919 | 1072 | 70 | 4200 | 68 | 96 | 24.64 | 622.32 |
MFH 1919–1944 | 410 | 60 | 24,600 | 93 | 12 | 198.57 | 270.79 |
MFH 1945–1964 | 641 | 63 | 40,383 | 109 | 147 | 378.72 | 511.42 |
MFH 1965–1980 | 987 | 62 | 61,194 | 91 | 132 | 483.64 | 697.49 |
MFH Post–1980 | 1271 | 62 | 78,802 | 71 | 95 | 487.40 | 650.39 |
AB Pre–1919 | 201 | 68 | 13,668 | 88 | 138 | 104.29 | 163.26 |
AB 1919–1944 | 57 | 59 | 3363 | 87 | 133 | 25.36 | 38.59 |
AB 1945–1964 | 192 | 56 | 10,752 | 84 | 125 | 78.08 | 115.87 |
AB 1965–1980 | 334 | 63 | 21,042 | 108 | 131 | 196.80 | 238.50 |
AB Post–1980 | 384 | 68 | 26,112 | 70 | 86 | 158.72 | 194.12 |
Total calculated (KTOE) = | 23,309.99 | 35,556.38 | |||||
Total statistics = | 22,394.24 | 37,751.49 | |||||
Over/Underestimation | 4% | −6% |
Dwelling Type | Existing | Windows + Systems | Roof and Floor Insulation | Exterior Wall Insulation + Door | Renewables | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final Energy Demand (kWh/m2/year) | Final Energy Demand (kWh/m2/year) | Energy Saving% | Final Energy Demand (kWh/m2/year) | Energy Saving% | Final Energy Demand (kWh/m2/year) | Energy Saving% | Final Energy Demand (kWh/m2/year) | Energy Saving% | |
SFH Pre–1919 | 224 | 125 | 44 | 76 | 66 | 72 | 68 | 52 | 77 |
SFH 1919–1944 | 184 | 84 | 54 | 77 | 58 | 70 | 62 | 47 | 74 |
SFH 1945–1964 | 156 | 96 | 39 | 81 | 48 | 76 | 51 | 53 | 66 |
SFH 1965–1980 | 169 | 91 | 46 | 78 | 54 | 77 | 55 | 8 | 95 |
SFH Post–1980 | 95 | 76 | 20 | 72 | 25 | 69 | 27 | 12 | 87 |
TH Pre–1919 | 172 | 85 | 51 | 80 | 54 | 77 | 56 | 3 | 98 |
TH 1919–1944 | 157 | 94 | 40 | 76 | 51 | 75 | 52 | 15 | 90 |
TH 1945–1964 | 172 | 88 | 49 | 76 | 56 | 76 | 56 | 22 | 87 |
TH 1965–1980 | 146 | 95 | 35 | 82 | 44 | 79 | 46 | 19 | 87 |
TH Post–1980 | 115 | 80 | 30 | 73 | 37 | 68 | 41 | 12 | 90 |
MFH Pre–1919 | 96 | 57 | 41 | 44 | 54 | 57 | 40 | 21 | 78 |
MFH 1919–1944 | 128 | 65 | 49 | 55 | 57 | 32 | 75 | 8 | 94 |
MFH 1945–1964 | 147 | 64 | 56 | 58 | 61 | 52 | 65 | 9 | 94 |
MFH 1965–1980 | 133 | 62 | 53 | 41 | 69 | 36 | 73 | 9 | 93 |
MFH Post–1980 | 96 | 58 | 40 | 53 | 45 | 51 | 47 | 12 | 87 |
AB Pre–1919 | 139 | 59 | 57 | 54 | 61 | 27 | 81 | 4 | 97 |
AB 1919–1944 | 133 | 64 | 52 | 55 | 58 | 53 | 60 | 5 | 97 |
AB 1945–1964 | 125 | 64 | 49 | 54 | 57 | 46 | 64 | 23 | 82 |
AB 1965–1980 | 132 | 73 | 44 | 69 | 47 | 59 | 55 | 20 | 85 |
AB Post–1980 | 86 | 47 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 38 | 56 | 7 | 92 |
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Bennadji, A.; Seddiki, M.; Alabid, J.; Laing, R.; Gray, D. Predicting Energy Savings of the UK Housing Stock under a Step-by-Step Energy Retrofit Scenario towards Net-Zero. Energies 2022, 15, 3082. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15093082
Bennadji A, Seddiki M, Alabid J, Laing R, Gray D. Predicting Energy Savings of the UK Housing Stock under a Step-by-Step Energy Retrofit Scenario towards Net-Zero. Energies. 2022; 15(9):3082. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15093082
Chicago/Turabian StyleBennadji, Amar, Mohammed Seddiki, Jamal Alabid, Richard Laing, and David Gray. 2022. "Predicting Energy Savings of the UK Housing Stock under a Step-by-Step Energy Retrofit Scenario towards Net-Zero" Energies 15, no. 9: 3082. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15093082