Impact of Climate Change and Technological Innovation on the Energy Performance and Built form of Future Cities
2. Research Methodology
2.1. Formulating the Future Scenario
2.1.1. Global Warming and Climate Change
2.1.2. Transportation Model and Future Technologies
2.2. Energy Simulation
3.1. Correlation of Building/Transportation Energy Demands with Urban Built Form and Density
3.2. Correlation of PV Generation, Building/Transportation Energy Loads, Urban Built Form, and Density
3.3. PV Generation vs. EV Consumption
3.4. Heating to Cooling Ratio and Its Implications
3.5. Impact of the Cut-Off Angle on Building/Transportation Energy Loads
3.6. Comparison of the Energy Performance of the Different Built Forms
3.7. Comparison of the Building Energy Deman of 2050 with Present Time
- The results show that by 2050 buildings with greater plan depth and lower number of storeys (being equivalent to high site coverage and low plot ratio) will acquire higher values of Energy Equity that increase the possibility of building energy self-sufficiency. Although this trend is similar to the present scenario, the magnitude of Energy Equity is considerably lower in the future because of (i) additional cooling loads, and (ii) added EV charging to the building load.
- Unlike the present-day climate of London, increasing the cut-off angle mainly leads to a reduction in energy demand (with no effect on buildings with great plan depth), which shows the impact of having a cooling load as part of the building energy demand. It is also concluded that the building cooling load is more sensitive against the external environment changes such as varying the cut-off angle compared with heating loads.
- Having a similar geometry, the tunnel-court form indicates the highest Energy Equity and the lowest energy demand, while the pavilion form shows the poorest performance. Generally, court and tunnel-court forms show better energy performance in future climate scenarios compared with their performance in the present climate. Hence, it can be advised that for future urban developments in London, these two built forms are more advantageous in terms of energy to accommodate the changing climate.
- Finally, results of simulation trials indicate that the total building energy demand in 2050 is 40% higher, on average, than in the present climate, as a result of additional cooling load and EV charging consumption. This increase is much higher for buildings with a low heating to cooling ratio, which is the product of a specific combination of built form, density and geometrical parameters. For instance, this happens for buildings with small plan depth, a low cut-off angle and a high number of storeys, where their effect is magnified in pavilion and terrace forms. Hence, results from this study recommend that these configurations should be avoided for future urban developments in London to avoid excessive building cooling demand that has a higher contribution in environmental pollution compared with heating demand.
Conflicts of Interest
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Ahmadian, E.; Bingham, C.; Elnokaly, A.; Sodagar, B.; Verhaert, I. Impact of Climate Change and Technological Innovation on the Energy Performance and Built form of Future Cities. Energies 2022, 15, 8592. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15228592
Ahmadian E, Bingham C, Elnokaly A, Sodagar B, Verhaert I. Impact of Climate Change and Technological Innovation on the Energy Performance and Built form of Future Cities. Energies. 2022; 15(22):8592. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15228592Chicago/Turabian Style
Ahmadian, Ehsan, Chris Bingham, Amira Elnokaly, Behzad Sodagar, and Ivan Verhaert. 2022. "Impact of Climate Change and Technological Innovation on the Energy Performance and Built form of Future Cities" Energies 15, no. 22: 8592. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15228592