A Fuzzy-ANP Approach for Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation of Grid-Side Commercial Storage Project
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- (1)
- A comprehensive benefit evaluation index system has been established, which fully takes into account the actual operation status of grid-side energy storage projects and has more practical and theoretical value than financial evaluation. Refer to existing researches and literatures [17,18,19,20,21], take energy efficiency, economic benefit, social benefit, and environmental benefit as the four dimensions of the comprehensive benefit evaluation index system.
- (2)
- Summarized the current grid-side energy storage business modes in China. Consider the differences among modes, different indicators in the evaluation index system for specific business mode are selected to evaluate the comprehensive benefits, which can avoid the ambiguity of the evaluation process and ensure the accuracy of evaluation results.
- (3)
- Considering that the energy storage industry is in a rapid and unstable stage, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) and comprehensive fuzzy evaluation methods are combined to apply the comprehensive benefits evaluation of grid-side energy storage projects.
- (4)
- Through the empirical analysis of 100-megawatt storage project, the key influencing factors of comprehensive benefits are extracted. It would help promote the innovation and breakthrough of energy storage policy mechanism and ensure the orderly and sustainable development of energy storage.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation Index System of Grid-Side Commercial Storage Project
2.1.1. Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation Index System
Energy Efficiency
Economic Benefits
Social Benefits
Environmental Benefits
2.1.2. Benefit Evaluation System of Large-Scale Energy Storage Projects under Different Business Modes
2.2. Fuzzy-ANP Evaluation Method of Grid-Side Commercial Storage Project
- (1)
- Unqualified function
- (2)
- Qualified function
- (3)
- Good function
- (4)
- Excellent function
3. Results
3.1. Evaluation Indicators Values of Zhenjiang Storage Project
3.1.1. Energy Efficiency Indicators Values
3.1.2. Economic Indicators Values
3.1.3. Social and Environmental Indicators Values
3.2. Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation of Zhenjiang Storage Project
3.2.1. Index System Weight Determination
3.2.2. Fuzzy Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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First Level Indicator | Second Level Indicator | Third Level Indicator | Indicator Preference | Explanation |
---|---|---|---|---|
Energy efficiency (A) | Technology | Cell voltage (A1) | + | Standard voltage of each battery |
Energy Density (A2) | + | Effective storage capacity of per unit mass of material | ||
Power density (A3) | + | Effective storage power of per unit mass of material | ||
Self-discharge rate (A4) | − | The retain ability when the battery with open circuit state | ||
Application | Cycle life (A5) | + | The maximum cycle number that the system could withstand | |
Charge and discharge efficiency (A6) | + | The ratio of the released energy to the initial energy | ||
Stability (A7) | + | Ability to maintain stable operation under external influence | ||
Responsiveness (A8) | + | Required time for system response | ||
Economic benefits (B) | Cost | Construction cost (B1) | − | Construction cost of project |
Capacity cost (B2) | − | Cost of configuring battery system | ||
Power cost (B3) | − | Cost of conversion equipment and other facilities | ||
Operation and maintenance cost (B4) | − | Operation & maintenance costs and rental fees of storage systems | ||
Profit | Peak-to-valley price spread (B5) | + | Profit from peak shaving and valley filling with storage system | |
Saving investment (B6) | + | Saving investment of grid equipment due to storage system | ||
Government subsidy (B7) | + | Policy subsidy rewards of energy storage systems | ||
Network loss reduction (B8) | + | Annual revenue from reducing line loss due to storage system | ||
Recycle revenue (B9) | + | Recyclable value at the end of the energy storage system life | ||
Social benefits (C) | Reliability | Change value of power shortage rate (C1) | + | =LOLP with storage − LOLP without storage LOLP: loss of load probability |
Change value of power available rate (C2) | + | =ASAI with storage − ASAI without storage ASAI: average service availability index | ||
Frequency regulation benefit | Frequency regulation multiple (C3) | + | = σfwith storage/σfwithout storage σf: frequency standard deviation | |
Frequency regulation contribution rate (C4) | + | =(CPSwith storage − CPSwithout storage)/CPSwithout storage CPS: control performance standard | ||
Environmental benefits (D) | Clean consumption | Change rate of clean consumption (D1) | + | =(NCwith storage − NCwithout storage)/NCwithout storage NC: regional new energy consumption amount |
Low carbon reduction | Emission reduction revenue (D2) | + | =Emission cost of thermal power unit × (Storage charge quantity + NCwith storage − NCwithout storage) |
Indicators | A | B1 | B2 | B3 | B4 | B5 | B6 | B7 | B8 | B9 | C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | D1 | D2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mode A | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | ||||
Mode B | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | ||||
Mode C | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | ||||||||||
Mode D | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ |
Indicator | A1 | A2 | A3 | A4 | A5 | A6 | A7 | A8 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Value | 3.6 | 160 | 1200 | 1% | 10,000 | 95% | 7 | 9 |
Scenario | LOLP (%) | EENS (MWh × a−1) | BPECI (h × a−1) | ASAI (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 3.2035 × 10−5 | 34.5100 | 0.28063 | 99.9967965 |
2 | 3.2315 × 10−5 | 34.8110 | 0.28308 | 99.9967686 |
Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|
CPS | 143.70 | 145.33 | 143.58 | 154.72 |
A1 | A2 | A3 | A4 | A5 | A6 | A7 | A8 | B4 | B5 | B6 | B7 | B8 | C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | D1 | D2 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A1 | |||||||||||||||||||
A2 | |||||||||||||||||||
A3 | |||||||||||||||||||
A4 | |||||||||||||||||||
A5 | √ | ||||||||||||||||||
A6 | √ | ||||||||||||||||||
A7 | √ | √ | √ | √ | |||||||||||||||
A8 | |||||||||||||||||||
B4 | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | |||||||||||
B5 | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | ||||||||
B6 | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | ||||||||
B7 | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | ||||||
B8 | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | |||||||
C1 | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | |||||
C2 | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | ||||||
C3 | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | |||||||||
C4 | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | ||||||||
D1 | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | ||||||||
D2 | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ |
A1 | A2 | A3 | A4 | A5 | A6 | A7 | A8 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.18434 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A2 | 0.10917 | 0 | 0.05911 | 0.0742 | 0.13172 | 0.04176 | 0 | 0 |
A3 | 0.16706 | 0.0477 | 0 | 0.03882 | 0.10387 | 0.05295 | 0 | 0 |
A4 | 0.03874 | 0.02207 | 0.09557 | 0 | 0.06994 | 0.07936 | 0 | 0 |
A5 | 0.03874 | 0.0163 | 0.03692 | 0.03882 | 0 | 0.11245 | 0.11682 | 0 |
A6 | 0.03874 | 0.11602 | 0.026 | 0.05756 | 0.04935 | 0 | 0.35049 | 0 |
A7 | 0.03874 | 0.13261 | 0.22391 | 0.03258 | 0.05621 | 0.09039 | 0 | 0 |
A8 | 0.03612 | 0.13261 | 0.02579 | 0.04098 | 0.05621 | 0.09039 | 0 | 0 |
B4 | 0.05168 | 0.03591 | 0.06221 | 0.05941 | 0.01352 | 0 | 0.04323 | 0.02853 |
B5 | 0.03917 | 0.05664 | 0.03617 | 0.03839 | 0.0213 | 0.08035 | 0.01644 | 0.07141 |
B6 | 0.02969 | 0.02884 | 0.02504 | 0.02761 | 0.03397 | 0.01342 | 0.0303 | 0.05393 |
B7 | 0.0225 | 0.02196 | 0.01988 | 0.02 | 0.06553 | 0.0275 | 0.06029 | 0.03778 |
B8 | 0.01705 | 0.01672 | 0.01678 | 0.01467 | 0.02577 | 0.03882 | 0.00983 | 0.10886 |
C1 | 0.03827 | 0.05509 | 0.12704 | 0.07094 | 0.09103 | 0.05813 | 0.08401 | 0.07205 |
C2 | 0.05412 | 0.16603 | 0.08014 | 0.15484 | 0.04663 | 0.16571 | 0.13497 | 0.03877 |
C3 | 0.07654 | 0.03736 | 0.04803 | 0.03397 | 0.1063 | 0.03558 | 0.03865 | 0.27637 |
C4 | 0.10824 | 0.0187 | 0.02196 | 0.01743 | 0.03322 | 0.01776 | 0.01955 | 0.13313 |
D1 | 0.06362 | 0.06362 | 0.06362 | 0.03181 | 0.07158 | 0.02386 | 0.01909 | 0.14332 |
D2 | 0.03181 | 0.03181 | 0.03181 | 0.06362 | 0.02386 | 0.07158 | 0.07635 | 0.03583 |
Indicator | D2 | C3 | C4 | B4 | B7 | B8 | A6 | A7 | A8 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Limiting | 0.13744 | 0.007347 | 0.006773 | 0.007902 | 0.149637 | 0.081315 | 0.001145 | 0.00432 | 0.00011 |
Indicator | Excellent | Good | Qualified | Unqualified | Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
A1 | {3.25; 4} | {2.5; 3.25} | {1.75; 2.5} | {1; 1.75} | 3.6 |
A2 | {200; 250} | {150; 200} | {100; 150} | {50; 100} | 160 |
A3 | {1040; 1340} | {740; 1040} | {440; 740} | {140; 440} | 1200 |
A4 | {0; 5%} | {5%; 10%} | {10%; 15%} | {15%; 20%} | 1% |
A5 | {12,000; 16,000} | {8000; 12,000} | {4000; 8000} | {0; 4000} | 13,000 |
A6 | {95%; 100%} | {90%; 95%} | {85%; 90%} | {80%; 85%} | 95% |
A7 | {7.5; 10} | {5; 7.5} | {2.5; 5} | {0; 2.5} | 7 |
A8 | {7.5; 10} | {5; 7.5} | {2.5; 5} | {0; 2.5} | 9 |
B4 | {0; 326} | {326; 651} | {651; 977} | {977; 1304} | 460.7 |
B5 | {1617.5; 2156.6} | {1078.3; 1617.5} | {539.2; 1078.3} | {0; 539.2} | 1831.3 |
B6 | {7.5; 10} | {5; 7.5} | {2.5; 5} | {0; 2.5} | 6 |
B7 | {3954; 5272} | {2636; 3954} | {1318; 2636} | {0; 1318} | 3753.2 |
B8 | {6.93–9.24} | {4.62–6.93} | {2.31; 4.62} | {0; 2.31} | 6.97 |
C1 | {7.5; 10} | {5; 7.5} | {2.5; 5} | {0; 2.5} | 7 |
C2 | {7.5; 10} | {5; 7.5} | {2.5; 5} | {0; 2.5} | 8 |
C3 | {7.5; 10} | {5; 7.5} | {2.5; 5} | {0; 2.5} | 6 |
C4 | {7.5; 10} | {5; 7.5} | {2.5; 5} | {0; 2.5} | 9 |
D1 | {0.45; 0.6} | {0.3; 0.45} | {0.15; 0.3} | {0; 0.15} | 0.453 |
D2 | {246.6; 328.8} | {164.4; 246.6} | {82.2; 164.4} | {0; 82.2} | 294.3 |
Indicator | Value (unit: million yuan) | |
---|---|---|
Cost | B4 | 4.61 |
Profit | B5 | 18.31 |
B6 | 6.27 | |
B7 | 37.53 | |
B8 | 0.07 | |
D2 | 2.94 | |
Total revenue | 60.52 |
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Yang, H.; Fan, W.; Qin, G.; Zhao, Z. A Fuzzy-ANP Approach for Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation of Grid-Side Commercial Storage Project. Energies 2021, 14, 1129. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14041129
Yang H, Fan W, Qin G, Zhao Z. A Fuzzy-ANP Approach for Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation of Grid-Side Commercial Storage Project. Energies. 2021; 14(4):1129. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14041129
Chicago/Turabian StyleYang, Huijia, Weiguang Fan, Guangyu Qin, and Zhenyu Zhao. 2021. "A Fuzzy-ANP Approach for Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation of Grid-Side Commercial Storage Project" Energies 14, no. 4: 1129. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14041129