The results of the MILP optimization are the time series of the power of the CAES plant, the power of the electrolyzer (if present), as well as the time series of the state of charge of both the compressed air storage and the hydrogen storage (if present). The simulation results were analyzed and compared with a set of the criteria, which included the revenue and plant parameters such as operating hours and carbon emissions. The yearly revenue included operating costs such as energy purchase in the day-ahead market for charging mode and electrolysis, natural gas and carbon emission costs, and startup costs. The startup costs represent the cost of the wear of the components. The revenue corresponds to the objective functions of use cases DA and DAF. For use cases MR and MRF, the proceeds for providing energy in the minute-reserve market were added to the results of the objective function to calculate the revenue since these proceeds were omitted during the optimization. The revenue did not include investment costs for plant enhancements.
3.1. Revenue
Figure 3 shows the revenue for the participation in the day-ahead market (use case DA) for years 2015 to 2019 and the average per year. The current Huntorf plant resulted in an average yearly revenue of EUR 1.2 Mio. The fossil retrofit (CP+R) showed the highest average revenue with almost EUR 7 Mio per year. This plant variation is a combination of plant variations C+ and R with the addition of a higher rated power in charging and discharging mode. The Plant variation with recuperation (R) showed a significant increase in revenue compared to the current plant, whereas the plant variation with increased storage capacity (C+) only showed a slight increase. In conclusion, the improvement of fuel consumption due to recuperation has a higher impact on the revenue than the increase in storage capacity and power, because the costs for natural gas and carbon dioxide emissions are an extensive factor of the revenue.
The yearly revenue of plant variations including electrolysis depends on the rated power of the electrolyzer: higher rated powers result in higher revenues if investment costs are omitted. With high rated power, the electrolyzer has a higher flexibility regarding the timing of operation and thus buying energy in the day-ahead market. The yearly revenue for plant variation H20 was lower than the revenue of the base plant Huntorf, but plant variations H120 and H470 showed higher yearly revenues than the Huntorf plant and variation C+. The retrofit plant variations CP+R and CP+RH showed considerably higher yearly revenues than the rest of the plant variations. For the current natural gas and carbon emission prices, the fossil retrofit yielded higher revenues on average than the emission-free hydrogen production and combustion of the retrofit CP+RH.
The yearly revenue varied through the years for every plant variation. This is due to the fact that the day-ahead market prices are dependent on various circumstances such as residual load, renewable energy generation capacity, and the prices of fossil resources. High average energy prices and a high variation lead to higher yearly revenues. The lowest average price (EUR 29.00/) and low variation (50% of the prices ranged between EUR 22.32/ and EUR 34.97/, which is a difference of only EUR 12.65/) caused the lowest yearly revenue in 2016. In 2018, the average price was EUR 44.47/, and 50% of the hourly price values ranged between EUR 34.45/ and EUR 54.87/ (difference of EUR 20.42/). The yearly revenue was highest for 2018 for all plant variations without electrolysis.
For 2016, the revenue of the retrofit with hydrogen (CP+RH) was higher than the revenue of the fossil retrofit (CP+R) because the average day-ahead market price was lower, which means that energy for the electrolyzer, which is bought in the day-ahead market, was cheaper. For 2018, the revenue of the fossil retrofit was notably higher than the revenue of CP+RH. The average of the day ahead market prices was higher, and therefore, the energy for the electrolyzer was more expensive.
In 2020, the average day-ahead market prices were low (EUR 30.96/
) and the variation was high (50% of values in range of EUR 18.51/
) [
25]. It is suspected that the yearly revenue will be lower than for 2018, but higher than for 2016 and that the retrofit with hydrogen will yield a higher revenue than the fossil retrofit.
Figure 4 shows the revenue shares for use case DA for 2019. The resulting revenue, which is shown in
Figure 3, is the sum of the positive bars minus the sum of the negative bars. The costs for natural gas and carbon dioxide emissions were the biggest cost factors. For plant variations with recuperation (R and CP+R), the fuel efficiency resulted in lower costs for natural gas and carbon emissions, which resulted moreover in higher costs on the day-ahead market because of the higher operating hours in charging mode. For plant variation H470, the high rated power of the electrolyzer resulted in high flexibility, which led to the electrolyzer operating mostly during times with negative day-ahead market prices. This resulted in positive day-ahead market proceeds for the operation of the electrolyzer. The costs for startups were insignificantly low with only 0.7% to 4.1% of the yearly revenue.
The previous results were based on a natural gas price of EUR 20/
and a carbon price of EUR 25/t, which represent the current circumstances (base scenario). The MILP optimization was also performed for two other scenarios shown in
Table 3. The second scenario represents the predicted prices by 2025 based on the German Fuel Emissions Trading Act. The third scenario represents the price predictions by 2040 based on the Fuel Emissions Trading Act and the findings by the International Energy Agency [
28].
Figure 5 shows the average revenue for years 2015 to 2019 for these three scenarios. For all plant variations except the retrofit with hydrogen, the revenue declined significantly when the natural gas and carbon prices rose. For the natural-gas-fueled plant variations, the revenue in 2025 was one third less on average than for the base scenario, and the revenue in 2040 was only 20% of the base scenario. For plant variations that use hydrogen in the high-pressure combustion chamber, the impact of the natural gas and carbon prices on the yearly revenue was less severe. For plant variation CP+RH, the revenue was constant because the plant did not use any natural gas in the combustion process. When both retrofit plant variations were compared, the revenue of the fossil one in 2025 was lower than the revenue of the one with hydrogen combustion in the same scenario. In 2040, the revenue of plant variation CP+R was only a quarter of the revenue of CP+RH.
Figure 6 compares the yearly revenue for the four implemented use cases: participation in the day-ahead market with and without forecast uncertainty (DA and DAF) and additional participation in the minute-reserve market (MR and MRF) with a natural gas price of EUR 20/
and a carbon price of EUR 25/t. Revenues for use case MR were the highest, and revenues for use case DAF were the lowest. The lowest yearly revenue with EUR 0.48 Mio was recorded for use case DAF and plant variation H20. The fossil retrofit CP+R showed the highest yearly revenue with EUR 6.96 Mio when participating in the day-ahead market, as well as the minute-reserve market with perfect forecasting (use case MR).
The revenues for the use cases that include participation in the minute-reserve market were between 2% and 48% higher than the revenues for use cases DA and DAF. The forecast uncertainty resulted in a decrease of revenue between 6% and 29%. The highest differences among the use cases were recorded for plant variation H20. The fossil retrofit CP+R showed the lowest differences among the use cases. This led to the conclusion that higher absolute revenues result in lower deviations among use cases.
3.2. Operation Parameters
The feasibility and plausibility of the previously presented use cases can be assessed and compared with criteria representing the operation parameters: operating hours, utilization, number of starts, and carbon emissions.
Figure 7 shows the average operating hours per year in charging mode (compressor) and discharging mode and of the electrolyzer when participating in the day-ahead market (use case DA). The operating hours in charging mode ranged between 138 h and 3730 h. Since the natural gas and carbon emission costs were the biggest factor of the revenue, the increase of fuel efficiency resulted in more opportunities to discharge and thus in more operating hours in charging mode. Additionally, the fossil retrofit (CP+R) offered more flexibility due to the increased storage capacity, which resulted in four-times higher operating hours than for the current Huntorf plant. For the plant variations with electrolysis, the operating hours in charging mode depended mainly on the rated power of the electrolyzer. The operating hours in charging mode for plant variation H20 were the lowest because with only 20 MW of electrolysis; the charging duration of the hydrogen storage was much higher than the charging duration of the compressed air storage. When comparing the retrofit plant variations with and without hydrogen combustion, it became obvious that the operating hours of the fossil retrofit were significantly higher than those of the retrofit with hydrogen combustion, even though the revenue was only slightly higher.
The operating hours in discharging mode ranged between 45 h and 1239 h and were significantly lower than in charging mode because the full cycle discharging duration was only a quarter of the charging duration (amount of time needed to fully discharge/charge the storage). The operating hours in discharging mode showed the same differences among plant variations as the operating hours in charging mode.
The operating hours of the electrolyzer ranged between 151 h and 1330 h per year. Even though plant variation H20 showed high operating hours of the electrolyzer, the operating hours in charging and discharging mode were very low. This was due to the fact that the rated power of the electrolyzer was only 20 MW and it took 150 h to fully charge the hydrogen storage. The rated power of the electrolyzer of the retrofit CP+RH was only 30 MW higher than the rated power of plant variation H470, but the operating hours of the electrolyzer were significantly higher. This was based on the recuperation of the retrofit, which resulted in a higher fuel efficiency and more opportunities to both discharge and charge.
When the plant participated additionally in the minute-reserve market (use case MR), the operating hours in both charging mode and discharging mode, as well as of the electrolyzer were slightly lower for all plant variations, but the decrease was less than 15%. When providing minute-reserve power, the plant increased revenue by being in standby. Plant variations with lower operating hours (Huntorf, C+, R, H20, H120, H470, and CP+RH) showed slightly higher operating hours if the forecast uncertainty was implemented with the rolling horizon approach. However, plant variations with high operating hours (R and CP+R) showed a decrease in operating hours for use cases DAF and MRF.
The utilization of a component can be assessed with the ratio of full load hours divided by operating hours. The compressor of the CAES plant operates always at rated power, which resulted in the utilization of one. Even though the power in discharging mode can be adjusted between 100 MW and 321 MW, the turbine almost always operated with rated power in all market-orientated use cases (utilization > 95%). The power of the electrolyzer offers more flexibility than the turbine and can be adjusted between 5% and 100% of the rated power. However, the utilization was greater than 85% for every use case.
The number of starts was minimized in all use cases by adding the startup cost component to the objective function.
Figure 8 shows the average number of starts per year in charging mode (compressor) and discharging mode (turbine) and of the electrolyzer for use case DA (participation in the day-ahead market). With around 4800 h in operation in charging mode for the fossil retrofit and over 400 starts, the average duration the plant operated in charging mode was around 12 h at a time, which was less than half of the amount of time it took for the compressed air energy storage to be fully charged. For the retrofit with hydrogen combustion, the average operating time for one charging cycle was around 7 h. In conclusion, fewer operating hours resulted in a shorter average charging duration each start.
The number of starts in discharging mode was almost the same as the number of starts in charging mode. The average discharging cycle duration for the current Huntorf plant was 2 h and for the fossil retrofit 3.5 h. This was due to the higher storage capacity of the retrofit. The number of starts of the electrolyzer ranged between 60 and 130 starts. The higher rated power of the electrolyzer resulted in a lower number of starts. The average charging cycle duration was 10.2 h for the smallest electrolyzer (H20) and 2.6 h for the biggest electrolyzer (H470).
If the plant participated additionally in the minute-reserve market, the number of starts decreased. This was due to the fact that the plant could realize revenue when being in standby and providing minute-reserve power. For most plant variations, the number of starts increased when considering the forecast uncertainty. The average duration of one charging or discharging cycle was shorter because the plant may have to stop operating if the forecast changes.
An often discussed disadvantage of diabatic CAES is the carbon emissions. Carbon emissions are proportional to the operating hours in discharging mode and additionally depend on the type of fuel used. The current Huntorf plant and plant variations C+, R, and CP+R use natural gas in both combustion chambers. Hydrogen is used in the high-pressure combustion chamber, while natural gas is used on the low-pressure combustion chamber in plant variations H20, H120, and H470. For plant variation CP+RH, the carbon emissions are zero because hydrogen is burned both in the high-pressure and the low-pressure combustion chamber. The minimization of carbon emissions was an objective of the optimization since the carbon price was included in the fuel costs.
Figure 9 shows the average amount of carbon emissions per year for all use cases. Emissions ranged between 0 t and 105,710 t per year. Plant variations H20, H120, and H470 showed low carbon emissions with less than 10,000 t per year because of the hydrogen combustion. The difference between the amount of carbon emissions of the plant variation with increased storage capacity (C+) and recuperation (R) was small, even though the operating hours in discharging mode of plant variation R were twice as high as for plant variation C+. This was due to the increased fuel efficiency. Carbon emissions for the fossil retrofit were significantly higher than those of the other plant variations because of the high operating hours and combustion of natural gas in both combustion chambers.
3.3. Summary
The retrofit of the Huntorf CAES plant with increased storage capacity, rated charging and discharging power, and recuperation and with natural gas combustion showed the highest yearly revenue. The yearly revenue could be improved by 480% with this retrofit in comparison to the current Huntorf plant. The improvement of fuel consumption due to recuperation had a higher impact on the revenue than the increase in storage capacity and power, because the costs for natural gas and carbon dioxide emissions were the driving factors of the revenue. The yearly revenue of the plant variations including electrolysis depended on the rated power of the electrolyzer: higher rated powers resulted in higher revenues (investment costs were omitted). If the retrofit was fueled with hydrogen, the revenue could be improved by 365%. Revenues for the use cases with a rolling horizon optimization considering forecast uncertainty were only slightly less than the revenues for use cases with perfect forecasts. The yearly revenue of any plant variation increased slightly if the plant participated in the minute-reserve market in addition to the day-ahead market.
For the current natural gas and carbon emission prices, the proposed fossil retrofit with natural gas combustion yielded higher revenues on average than the emission-free retrofit with hydrogen production and combustion. For the natural-gas-fueled plant variations, the revenue was one third less on average by 2025 than for the base scenario, and by 2040, the revenue was only 20% of the base scenario due to rising natural gas and carbon emission prices. If carbon prices rose to EUR 55/ and higher, the CO2-emission-free retrofit with hydrogen would be more profitable than the retrofit with natural gas combustion.
High revenues did not necessarily lead to high operating hours or a high number of starts. Operating hours varied broadly depending on the plant variation. The hydrogen retrofit showed significantly lower operating hours than the fossil retrofit, even though the difference in revenue was small.