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Energies 2019, 12(8), 1447; https://doi.org/10.3390/en12081447

Damage Probability Assessment of Transmission Line-Tower System Under Typhoon Disaster, Based on Model-Driven and Data-Driven Views

1
School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
2
Electric Power Research Institute, Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510080, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 28 February 2019 / Revised: 12 April 2019 / Accepted: 15 April 2019 / Published: 16 April 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Energy Fundamentals and Conversion)
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Abstract

Under the typhoon disaster, the power grid often has serious accidents caused by falling power towers and breaking lines. It is of great significance to analyze and predict the damage probability of a transmission line-tower system for disaster prevention and reduction. However, some problems existing in current models, such as complicated calculation, few factors, and so on, affect the accuracy of the prediction. Therefore, a damage probability assessment method of a transmission line-tower system under a typhoon disaster is proposed. Firstly, considering the actual wind load and the design wind load, physical models for calculating the damage probability of the transmission line and power tower are established, respectively based on model-driven thought. Then, the damage probability of the transmission line-tower system is obtained, combining the transmission line and power tower damage probability. Secondly, in order to improve prediction accuracy, this paper analyzes the historical sample data containing multiple influencing factors, such as geographic information, meteorological information, and power grid information, and then obtains the correction coefficient based on data-driven thought. Thirdly, the comprehensive damage probability of the transmission line-tower system is calculated considering the results of model-driven and data-driven thought. Ultimately, the proposed method is verified to be effective, taking typhoon ‘Mangkhut’ in 2018 as a case study. View Full-Text
Keywords: typhoon; damage probability; prediction model; correction coefficient; transmission line-tower system; data analysis typhoon; damage probability; prediction model; correction coefficient; transmission line-tower system; data analysis
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Hou, H.; Geng, H.; Huang, Y.; Wu, H.; Wu, X.; Yu, S. Damage Probability Assessment of Transmission Line-Tower System Under Typhoon Disaster, Based on Model-Driven and Data-Driven Views. Energies 2019, 12, 1447.

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