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Energies 2019, 12(7), 1374; https://doi.org/10.3390/en12071374

Solar Irradiance Forecasts by Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models with Different Horizontal Resolutions

1
Research Center for Photovoltaics, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Ibaraki 3058568, Japan
2
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan
3
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Chiba 2778564, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 7 March 2019 / Revised: 28 March 2019 / Accepted: 5 April 2019 / Published: 9 April 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Forecasting)
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Abstract

This study examines the performance of radiation processes (shortwave and longwave radiations) using numerical weather prediction models (NWPs). NWP were calculated using four different horizontal resolutions (5, 2 and 1 km, and 500 m). Validation results on solar irradiance simulations with a horizontal resolution of 500 m indicated positive biases for direct normal irradiance dominate for the period from 09 JST (Japan Standard Time) to 15 JST. On the other hand, after 15 JST, negative biases were found. For diffused irradiance, weak negative biases were found. Validation results on upward longwave radiation found systematic negative biases of surface temperature (corresponding to approximately −2 K for summer and approximately −1 K for winter). Downward longwave radiation tended to be weak negative biases during both summer and winter. Frequency of solar irradiance suggested that the frequency of rapid variations of solar irradiance (ramp rates) from the NWP were less than those observed. Generally, GHI distributions between the four different horizontal resolutions resembled each other, although horizontal resolutions also became finer. View Full-Text
Keywords: solar irradiance forecasts; numerical weather prediction model; different horizontal resolution; forecast errors; validation; ramp rates solar irradiance forecasts; numerical weather prediction model; different horizontal resolution; forecast errors; validation; ramp rates
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Ohtake, H.; Uno, F.; Oozeki, T.; Hayashi, S.; Ito, J.; Hashimoto, A.; Yoshimura, H.; Yamada, Y. Solar Irradiance Forecasts by Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models with Different Horizontal Resolutions. Energies 2019, 12, 1374.

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