The Impact of an Electrical Mini-grid on the Development of a Rural Community in Kenya
1.1. Mini-grids in the Context of Electrification Research
1.2. Country Context and Site Selection
1.2.1. Site Selection
1.2.2. Site characteristics
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Household Level
- What is your household expenditure?
- What is your expenditure on kerosene?
- On a set of steps representing wealth from 1–10 (poorest to richest), on which step would you be today?
- How many pieces of fruit do you eat on a typical day?
- Does your household have access to electricity? (from rechargeable battery up to grid)
2.2. Business Level
- When did you open your business? (year, month)
- What is your daily expenditure and income?
- What are your opening hours?
- What proportion of your customers come from outside the trading centre?
2.3. Community Level
2.4. Mini-Grid Level
2.4.1. Community-Based Operation and Governance
2.4.2. Design of the Solar Photovoltaics Power System
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Household-Level Results
3.1.1. Household Expenditure and Perceived Financial Wellbeing
3.1.3. Access to Electricity
3.2. Trading Centre-Level Results
3.3. Community-Level Results
3.4. Mini-Grid Operation
3.4.1. Community-Based Operation and Governance
3.4.2. Design of the Solar Photovoltaics Power System
3.4.3. Business Model
Conflicts of Interest
|Population density||P > 50 people/km2||Avoid areas that have transient, semi-nomadic populations|
|Distance from grid or existing decentralized power system to centroid of sub-location||D > 5 km||Avoid areas where grid connection or infilling is highly likely in the future a|
|Population density-distance product||P.D > 1000||Select areas with significant population density but nevertheless far from the existing network|
|Surrounding constituency indicated as soon to be fully electrified in the 2009 Rural Electrification Masterplan?||No||Avoid areas slated for imminent investment in grid extension or decentralized power system|
|District||Number of Selected Sub-Locations||Population of Selected Sub-Locations||Land Area of Selected Sub-Locations (km2)||Average Population Density of Selected Areas (people/km2)||Indicated in REM as Fully Electrified?|
|Security||PV panels and cabling are more difficult to steal and/or vandalize as the access ladder is normally locked in the plant room. In addition, the risk of accidental damage by people or animals (by digging, throwing objects, etc.) is reduced.|
|Shading||Raising the panels up reduces risk of shading from trees, buildings and other obstructions, which could otherwise result in loss of performance of the array.|
|Rainwater||In a semi-arid area, water is a valuable commodity. Rainwater is stored in two 10000 litre tanks and sold by the co-operative for 10 KES per 20 litre container.|
|Land use||By housing the plant room and manager’s office underneath the canopy, the total amount of land taken by the facility is minimized. This helps in locations where land ownership is a sensitive issue, such as Kenya.|
|Shelter||The canopy provides a shaded area used for community meetings. Previously, meetings were held in the open, with limited shade from a tree. Additionally, the canopy shades the plant room, reducing the temperature of the electrical equipment.|
|Rain splash||Ground mounted panels would be likely to be exposed to soil thrown up by heavy rain from bare earth surfaces.|
|Cleaning||Cleaning requires someone to climb up a ladder onto the canopy and clean with a long-handled brush. As the panels are not visible, they are ‘out of sight out of mind’ to a certain extent. Dirty panels would be more obvious and cleaning would be easier and safer on the ground, however risk is minimised by a walkway set into the canopy at a safe distance from the edge. The canopy has sufficient slope that it will self-clean during the rainy seasons.|
|Cost||The canopy and rainwater tanks added 17% to the capital investment requirement for the mini-grid, which is discussed in Section 3.4.|
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|Dependent Variable a|
|ln(HH expenditure)||ln(paraffin exp.)||Step of wealth ladder||Pieces of fruit per day||Access to Electricity|
|(OLS)||(OLS)||(OLS)||(OLS)||(linear probability OLS)|
|Intervention group (0 or 1)||0.012||0.135**||−0.313 ***||−0.018||0.082 **|
|(−0.113, 0.137)||(0.026, 0.244)||(−0.539, −0.087)||(−0.100, 0.063)||(0.018, 0.145)|
|Time (0 or 1)||0.388 ***||0.042||0.062||0.309***||−0.012|
|(0.267, 0.508)||(−0.061, 0.145)||(−0.156, 0.280)||(0.231, 0.387)||(−0.067, 0.043)|
|Intervention: Time||−0.235 ***||−0.143 *||0.526***||0.516***||0.334 ***|
|(−0.412, −0.058)||(−0.298, 0.011)||(0.206, 0.846)||(0.401, 0.631)||(0.217, 0.451)|
|Constant||8.398 ***||5.328 ***||3.753 ***||0.113 ***||0.316 ***|
|(8.312, 8.483)||(5.256, 5.401)||(3.599, 3.907)||(0.058, 0.169)||(0.273, 0.360)|
|Residual Std. Error||0.921 (df = 1670)||0.692 (df = 1246)||1.667 (df = 1672)||0.599 (df = 1674)||0.468 (df = 1668)|
|F Statistic||16.882 *** |
(df = 3; 1670)
(df = 3; 1246)
|8.316 *** |
(df = 3; 1672)
|165.201 *** |
(df = 3; 1674)
|25.226 *** |
(df = 3; 1668)
|Case||Capital as Fraction of original||Project Lifetime (years)||Growth in daily demand in t years (kWh)||Tariff (KES)||Battery life (years) a||IRR (%) b||NPV with 5% Discount Rate (100,000 KES) b|
|As designed, predicted growth and tariff||100%||20||min(7t, 28)||200||10||13||94.6|
|As designed, lower tariff||100%||20||min(7t, 28)||75||10||0||(−50.0)|
|Actual demand and tariff||100%||20||min(7.5 + 1.5t, 28)||75||15 (expected)||(−2)||(−64.0)|
|As above, no canopy||83%||20||min(7.5 + 1.5t, 28)||75||15 (expected)||(−1)||(−47.0)|
|Aggressive cost reductions||50%||20||min(7.5 + 1.5t, 28)||75||15 (expected)||3||(−13.0)|
|As above, higher tariff||50%||20||min(7.5 + 1.5t, 28)||100||15 (expected)||7||10.0|
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Bahaj, A.; Blunden, L.; Kanani, C.; James, P.; Kiva, I.; Matthews, Z.; Price, H.; Essendi, H.; Falkingham, J.; George, G. The Impact of an Electrical Mini-grid on the Development of a Rural Community in Kenya. Energies 2019, 12, 778. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12050778
Bahaj A, Blunden L, Kanani C, James P, Kiva I, Matthews Z, Price H, Essendi H, Falkingham J, George G. The Impact of an Electrical Mini-grid on the Development of a Rural Community in Kenya. Energies. 2019; 12(5):778. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12050778Chicago/Turabian Style
Bahaj, AbuBakr, Luke Blunden, Christopher Kanani, Patrick James, Isaac Kiva, Zoë Matthews, Heather Price, Hildah Essendi, Jane Falkingham, and Gerard George. 2019. "The Impact of an Electrical Mini-grid on the Development of a Rural Community in Kenya" Energies 12, no. 5: 778. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12050778