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An Assessment of Near-to-Mid-Term Economic Impacts and Energy Transitions under “2 °C” and “1.5 °C” Scenarios for India

Marine and Renewable Energy Ireland, Environment Research Institute, University College Cork, T23XE10 Cork, Ireland
Division of Energy Technology, Department of Space, Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden
Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute of Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan
Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Katsura Campus, Kyoto 615-8510, Japan
Global Centre for Environment and Energy, Ahmedabad University, Ahmedabad 380009, Gujarat, India
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2018, 11(9), 2213;
Received: 8 August 2018 / Revised: 14 August 2018 / Accepted: 15 August 2018 / Published: 24 August 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Low Carbon Energy Systems)
PDF [2050 KB, uploaded 24 August 2018]


The goal of limiting global temperature rise to “well below” 2 °C has been reaffirmed in the Paris Agreement on climate change at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21). Almost all countries submitted their decarbonization targets in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and India did as well. India’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of national GDP in 2030 by 33–35% compared to 2005. This paper analyzes how India’s NDC commitments compare with emission trajectories consistent with well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C global temperature stabilization goals. A top-down computable general equilibrium model is used for the analysis. Our analysis shows that there are significant emission gaps between NDC and global climate stabilization targets in 2030. The energy system requires significant changes, mostly relying on renewable energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. The mitigation costs would increase if India delays its abatement efforts and is locked into NDC pathways till 2030. India’s GHG emissions would peak 10 years earlier under 1.5 °C global temperature stabilization compared to the 2 °C goal. The results imply that India would need financial and technological support from developed countries to achieve emissions reductions aligned with the global long-term goal. View Full-Text
Keywords: NDC; computable general equilibrium model; 1.5 °C target; India NDC; computable general equilibrium model; 1.5 °C target; India

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Mittal, S.; Liu, J.-Y.; Fujimori, S.; Shukla, P.R. An Assessment of Near-to-Mid-Term Economic Impacts and Energy Transitions under “2 °C” and “1.5 °C” Scenarios for India. Energies 2018, 11, 2213.

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