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Energies 2018, 11(10), 2850; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11102850

Schedule Modeling to Estimate Typical Construction Durations and Areas of Risk for 1000 MW Ultra-Critical Coal-Fired Power Plants

1
Korea East-West Power Agency Company, Ulsan 44543, Korea
2
Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology & Graduate School of Engineering Mastership, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Pohang 37673, Korea
3
Construction Engineering and Management, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0428, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 3 October 2018 / Revised: 18 October 2018 / Accepted: 19 October 2018 / Published: 22 October 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Policy in South Korea)
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Abstract

To date, Korea has built four 1000 MW gross-power ultra-critical coal-fired power plants. With the introduction of this new power plant type, there is a need for the development of best practices and lessons learned associated with its construction. One such need identified as a gap in literature is the early project planning estimation of project duration. To fill this research gap, this study utilized the Program Evaluation and Review Technique/Critical Path Method (PERT/CPM) and Monte Carlo simulations for estimating the appropriate construction duration at the planning stage of a new 1000 MW class coal-fired power plant project. Through the case study of the four Korean ultra-critical coal-fired power plants in operation, there was found an 85% likelihood of construction duration to be between 64 and 68 months. From interviews with subject matter experts, the most significant risk factors were found to be labor strikes and construction safety incidents. The findings within aid early planning decision makers by providing a replicable and accurate schedule estimation process. While the findings are based on Korean power plants, the results of this research can be used as a tool for coal-fired power plant construction schedule estimation worldwide. View Full-Text
Keywords: ultra-critical; coal-fired; power plant; schedule estimation; PERT/CPM; monte carlo; risk assessment ultra-critical; coal-fired; power plant; schedule estimation; PERT/CPM; monte carlo; risk assessment
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Lee, H.-C.; Lee, E.-B.; Alleman, D. Schedule Modeling to Estimate Typical Construction Durations and Areas of Risk for 1000 MW Ultra-Critical Coal-Fired Power Plants. Energies 2018, 11, 2850.

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