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Open AccessArticle

An Improved Grey Model and Scenario Analysis for Carbon Intensity Forecasting in the Pearl River Delta Region of China

by Fei Ye 1, Xinxiu Xie 1, Li Zhang 1,* and Xiaoling Hu 2,*
1
School of Business Administration, South China University of Technology, 510640 Guangzhou, China
2
Guangdong Food and Drug Vocational College, Guangzhou, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2018, 11(1), 91; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11010091
Received: 14 November 2017 / Revised: 19 December 2017 / Accepted: 27 December 2017 / Published: 1 January 2018
In this paper, an improved grey model and scenario analysis, GA-GM(1,N) is proposed to forecast the carbon intensity in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, one of the most developed regions in China. Moreover, to show the advantage and feasibility of the proposed model, the forecasting results of the GA-GM(1,N) model are compared with that of a single-variable grey model (GM (1,1)) and a multivariable form (GM(1,N)). Data from one sample period (2005–2012) are used to develop the models, and data from another sample period (2013–2015) are used to test them. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is applied to measure the accuracy of prediction. The results show that, of the three models, GA-GM(1,N) produces the best carbon intensity forecasts, with MAPEs of 0.4–1.4% and 0.04–0.4% in the development and testing periods respectively. This indicates that the optimization of the genetic algorithm is effective. The realization of carbon reduction targets in different cities is also explored by combining grey models with scenario analysis. Only Guangzhou could achieve its reduction target under all scenarios, and it can serve as a reference for other cities. Policy recommendations are provided based on these results. View Full-Text
Keywords: carbon intensity forecasting; improved Grey model; genetic algorithm; scenario analysis; the Pearl River Delta region carbon intensity forecasting; improved Grey model; genetic algorithm; scenario analysis; the Pearl River Delta region
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Ye, F.; Xie, X.; Zhang, L.; Hu, X. An Improved Grey Model and Scenario Analysis for Carbon Intensity Forecasting in the Pearl River Delta Region of China. Energies 2018, 11, 91.

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