China’s Energy Transition in the Power and Transport Sectors from a Substitution Perspective
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Cleaner Energy Resource and Policies in Power and Transport Sectors
2.1. Cleaner Energy Potential and Accessibility
2.1.1. Natural Gas
2.1.2. Nuclear and Renewable Power
2.2. Energy Policy for Energy Substitution
2.2.1. Power Sector
2.2.2. Transport Sector
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. The LCOE Formula for the Power Sector
3.2. Total Ownership Costs (TOC) and Life Cycle Emissions Method for Transport Sector
3.3. Cost Assumptions Used
3.3.1. Generation Cost Assumptions
3.3.2. Transport Sector Assumptions
4. Results
4.1. Power Sector
4.2. Transport Sector Cost
4.2.1. BEVs and PHEVs versus Conventional Vehicles
4.2.2. Natural Gas as an Alternative Energy to Replace Gasoline or Diesel-Fueled Vehicles
4.3. Subsidy Impacts
4.4. Fuel and Electricity Prices
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
BEV | Battery electric vehicle |
CBM | Coalbed Methane |
EV | Electric vehicle |
FIT | Feed-in-Tariff |
GHG | Greenhouse Gas |
HREP | High Renewable Energy Penetration |
IEA | International Energy Agency |
INDC | Intended Nationally Determined Contribution |
LCOE | Levelized cost of electricity |
LNG | Liquefied Natural Gas |
MSRP | Manufacturer suggested retail price |
NGCC | Natural Gas Combined Cycle |
NGV | Natural gas vehicle |
OECD | Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development |
PHEV | Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle |
RE | Renewable energy |
tcm | trillion cubic meters |
OCC | Overnight Capital Cost |
URR | Ultimately recoverable resource |
Appendix A
Process | GHG (kg CO2 eq/KWh) |
---|---|
Coal production | 9.888 × 10−2 |
coal | 1.890 × 10−2 |
equipment transportation | 4.136 × 10−4 |
equipment production | 1.537 ×10−5 |
power plant construction | 1.537 ×10−5 |
Power plant operation | 9.143 ×10−4 |
Total | 1.02 |
Process | CO2 | CH4 | N2O |
---|---|---|---|
Building materials transportation | 7.48 × 10−3 | 3.80 × 10−7 | 3.68 × 10−5 |
power plant construction | 1.40 | 6.21 × 10−3 | 9.34 × 10−5 |
retirement | 1.40 × 10−1 | 6.21 × 10−4 | 9.34 × 10−6 |
Fuel production | 66 | 2.77 | 5.77 × 10−4 |
fuel transportation | 3.42 × 10−1 | 8.00 × 10−4 | 1.22 × 10−3 |
combustion for power generation | 371 | 4.51 × 10−2 | 0 |
Total | 439 | 2.82 | 1.94 × 10−3 |
Process | Material | Energy |
---|---|---|
Uranium mining | 0.495 | 1.83 |
The transformation of uranium and uranium enrichment | 0.84 | 0.314 |
Diffusion decommissioning project | 0.079 | - |
fuel fabrication facility | 0.00787 | 0.21 |
nuclear power plant | 0.451 | 1.96 |
postprocessing | - | 5.29 |
waste disposal | - | 0.433 |
Total | 1.87 | 10 |
Categories | GHG(g CO2 eq/KWh) |
---|---|
Rolled steel | 3.43 |
concrete | 6.07 |
diesel | 2.18 |
inundated area | 7.56 |
Total | 19.24 |
Process | GHG (g CO2 eq/KWh) |
Trees obtain | 6.39 |
smash | 12.76 |
transportation | 14.78 |
Electricity generation | 44.41 |
Sub-total | 78.34 |
Upstream manufacture | |
equipment | 26.36 |
construction | 6.11 |
water | 3.07 |
lubricating oil | 0.35 |
Sub-total | 35.9 |
Total | 114.23 |
Photovoltaic Solar Power Manufacturing | GHG Emissions (g CO2 eq/KWh) |
---|---|
Quartz mining | 0.202 |
transportation | 34.6 |
UMG-Siredox reaction | 0.4 |
UMG-Si production | 2.88 |
SoG-Si production | 21.3 |
ingotting | 1.3 |
wafer cutting | 3.38 |
Cell production | 6.32 |
module production | 6.32 |
system integration | 7.91 |
Manufacturing subtotal | 50.16 |
Photovoltaic power station operation | 0.05 |
transmission | 3.11 |
Power station disposal | 5.81 |
Total | 60.13 |
Wind Turbine | Material | Tons |
Rotor | synthetic resin | 154 |
fiberglass | 106 | |
pigging | 190 | |
cabin | iron | 480 |
steel | 560 | |
silicon dioxide | 9.6 | |
copper | 9.1 | |
fiberglass | 0.9 | |
synthetic resin | 1.3 | |
tower | steel | 2100 |
Transformer Substation | ||
transformer | silicon dioxide | 0.6 |
steel | 11 | |
copper | 4.8 | |
computer | - | 5 |
Bauarbeit | ||
Drum tower foundation | concrete | 8300 |
rebar | 990 | |
electric substation | concrete | 160 |
rebar | 7.9 | |
Operations and Maintenance | ||
blade | synthetic resin | 52.1 |
fiberglass | 35.9 | |
dynamo | silicon dioxide | 0.72 |
copper | 7.9 | |
steel | 17 |
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Types of reserves | Conventional | Shale Gas | Coalbed Methane | Tight Gas |
---|---|---|---|---|
Resources | 56 [20] | 31.6 [21], 8.6 [22] | - | - |
Geologically | 35 [20], 68 [23] | 122 [24] | 36.8 [25] | 17.4–25.1 [25] |
Recoverable | 40 [23] | 22 [26] | 10.9 [25] | 8.8–12.1 [25] |
Reserves | 30 [26] | - | - | - |
Remaining recoverable resources | - | - | 9 [27], 9.5 [28] | - |
Proven reserves | 3.7 [29], 5.94 [30] | - | - | - |
Recoverable, proven and probable reserves | 5 [29] | - | - | - |
Technically recoverable reserves | - | 25.1 [31] | - | 12 [31] |
Technically and economically producible reserves | 3.09 [30] | - | - | - |
Ultimately recoverable resources | 5.28–12.82 [32] | - | 2.77–31.68 [32] | 1.5–10.31 [32] |
Source | Capacity (GW) | Generation (TWh/y) |
---|---|---|
Theoretical hydropower | 694 [39] | 6082.9 [39] |
Technically exploitable hydropower | 542 [39] | 2473.9 [39] |
Economically exploitable hydropower | 402 [39], | 1750 [39], 1700 [41] |
Technically exploitable wind energy | 2548 [39] | 7644 [39] |
Wind power (10 m) | 250 GW (onshore) | 2000 [41] |
750 GW (offshore) | ||
Wind power (50 m) | 2000–2500 | 4000–5000 [41] |
Solar photovoltaic | - | 1296–6480 [39], 128,000 (theoretical) [41], 8000–69,900 [38] |
Concentrate solar power (CSP) | 3900–32,700 [38] | 6600–60,700 [38] |
Biomass | - | 1500–1750 [41] |
Tidal energy | 20 [39] | >620 GWh [39] |
Wave | - | >1500 [39] |
Total | - | >12,666 |
Policies | Description | References |
---|---|---|
Natural Gas Utilization Policy | Natural gas saving and improving energy efficient | [46] |
Revised Natural Gas Utilization Policy | Highlight the role of natural gas share in primary energy consumption and encourage natural gas used as fuel preferentially in residential, manufacturing, electricity and transportation sectors | [46] |
Renewable Energy Law | Enlarge the share of renewable energy, safeguard energy security and achieve the goal of sustainable economic development | [47] |
Amendments to the Renewable Energy Law | Further, strengthen the process through which renewable electricity projects are connected to the grid and dispatched efficiently | [48] |
Related Regulations on Renewable Energy Generation | Propose the standard development for renewable energy generation industry | [49] |
Policy guidance document | Re-emphasize the need for priority dispatch for renewable energy | [50] |
Relative Policies on Deepening the Reform of Power Industry No. 9 Document | Envisage China to further optimize its energy mix and improve the share of renewable energy in electricity generation | [51] |
Sources | Policies | Amount | References |
---|---|---|---|
Natural gas | Value-added tax refund; feed-in tariffs for gas-fired power | - | [52] |
Nuclear power | Feed-in tariff | $0.071/KWh | [17,53] |
Onshore wind power | Four-category FITs | $0.084–0.0165/KWh | [54] |
Notice on the Taxation of the Comprehensive Utilization of Resources and Other Value-additional | 50% discount in value-added tax | [55] | |
Solar PV | Two-category FITs | $0.18/KWh and $0.19/KWh | [56] |
Announcement of Value-added Policies for PV Generated Electricity | 50% discount in value-added tax | [57] |
Country | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 |
---|---|---|---|---|
US | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
China | 0.69 | 0.71 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
India | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.54 |
Brazil | 0.98 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 |
Turkey | 0.57 | 0.66 | 0.73 | 0.77 |
Categories | Units (2015 USD) | Coal | NGCC | Nuclear | Wind | Biomass | Solar PV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Construction Time | years | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Overnight Capital Cost | $/kW | 704 | 593 | 2751 | 1282 | 1701 | 1484 |
WACC | % | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
Fixed O&M | $/kW | 10.23 | 16.17 | - | 26.466 | 17.8695 | 8.679 |
Variable O&M | $/KWh | 0.006105 | 0.00231 | 0.02145 | - | - | - |
Project Life | years | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
Capacity Factor | % | 54% | 54% | 85% | 26% | 54% | 16% |
Heat Rate | BTU/KWh | 8740 | 6333 | 10,479 | - | 13,500 | - |
Fuel Cost | $/MMBTU | 2.60205 | 9.9759 | 1.221 | 0 | 4.10685 | 0 |
GHG emission tax | $/tonne (2030) | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
Generation Technologies | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Coal | 884,000 | 1,083,388 | 1,079,878 | 1,052,150 |
NG | 66,370 | 110,355 | 125,909 | 130,119 |
Nuclear | 26,080 | 50,500 | 64,000 | 66,000 |
Wind | 129,340 | 317,088 | 632,176 | 1,103,944 |
Biomass | 10,300 | 39,306 | 39,304 | 39,304 |
Solar PV | 43,180 | 157,025 | 500,235 | 1,048,858 |
Hydropower | 267,099 | 313,973 | 402,363 | 440,752 |
Generation Technologies | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Coal | 884,000 | 979,000 | 1,044,000 | 1,115,000 |
NG | 66,370 | 110,000 | 143,000 | 170,000 |
Nuclear | 26,080 | 55,000 | 86,000 | 110,000 |
Wind | 129,340 | 200,000 | 267,000 | 321,000 |
Biomass | 10,300 | 30,000 | 41,000 | 48,000 |
Solar PV | 43,180 | 100,000 | 151,000 | 194,000 |
Hydropower | 267,099 | 365,000 | 410,000 | 454,000 |
Technology | Global Learning Rate (%) | Local Learning Rate (%) | Global Cost Component (%) | Local Cost Component (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Coal | 5 | 5 | 10 | 90 |
CCGT | 5 | 5 | 50 | 50 |
Nuclear | 1 | 1 | 5 | 95 |
Wind | 17 | 17 | 10 | 90 |
Biomass | 5 | 5 | 10 | 90 |
Solar PV | 20 | 20 | 10 | 90 |
Generation Technologies | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Coal | 1930 | 2094 | 2049 | 1687 |
NG | 1475 | 1789 | 1810 | 2010 |
Nuclear | 348 | 449 | 465 | 642 |
Wind | 107 | 141 | 148 | 233 |
Biomass | 427 | 710 | 769 | 1572 |
Solar PV | 230 | 517 | 566 | 1278 |
Vehicle Models | Type | MSRP ($) | Government Subsidy ($) | Energy Consumption Rate (/100 km) | Engine Displacement (L) | Curb Weight (kg) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAIC (Beijing) | E150 EV | BEV | 41,217 | 23,100 | 12.5 KWh | 0 | 1370 |
E150 | CV | 14,322 | 0 | 7.1 L | 1.3 | 1090 | |
Roewe e550 | PHEV | 42,867 | 13,695 | 12 KWh & 2.3 L | 1.5 | 1699 | |
Roewe 550 | CV | 31,317 | 0 | 6.8 L | 1.8 | 1532 | |
BYD | E6 400 | BEV | 51,117 | 18,810 | 19.5 KWh | 0 | 2380 |
M6 | CV | 24,882 | 0 | 9.40 L | 2.4 | 1760 | |
BYD-Qin | PHEV | 31,317 | 11,550 | 6.2 L & 2.5–3.0 KWh | 1.5 | 1720 | |
BYD-G6 | CV | 18,612 | 0 | 7.9 L | 1.5 | 1450 |
Process | Upstream CO2 | Upstream CH4 | Upstream N2O | Direct CO2 | Direct CH4 | Direct N2O | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
g/MJ | g/MJ | mg/MJ | g/MJ | g/MJ | mg/MJ | g CO2 e/L | |
Gasoline | 20.2 | 0.05 | 0.49 | 67.9 | 0.08 | 0.002 | 3120.26 |
Vehicle Types | Taxi | Heavy Duty |
---|---|---|
VKT | 350 km/day | 200 km/day |
Life time (years) | 10 | 10 |
Pa − Pc (USD) | 1650 | 11,500 |
Fuel price | ||
CNG | $0.7425/m3 | - |
LNG | - | $0.7425/m3 |
Gasoline | $0.924/L | - |
Diesel | - | $1.254/L |
Fuel consumption | ||
CNG | 8.2 m3/100 km | - |
LNG | - | 4.6 m3/100 km |
Gasoline | 8 L/100 km | - |
Diesel | - | 39 L/100 km |
WTW GHG emission (g CO2, e/km) | ||
CNG | 205 | - |
LNG | - | 191–198 |
Gasoline | 236 | - |
Diesel | - | 212 |
Generation Technologies | GHG Emissions (g CO2 e/KWh) |
---|---|
Coal | 1020 |
Natural gas | 520 |
Nuclear | 12 |
Onshore Wind | 207 |
Biomass | 114 |
PV | 60 |
Hydro | 19 |
Mix (2030) High renewable energy penetration scenario | 485 |
New Policies Scenario | 592 |
Vehicles | Costs Add(US $) | GHG Emissions Reduction(Tons) | Ec$/Ton |
---|---|---|---|
Taxi | −8307 | 40 | −210 |
Heavy duty | −52,833 | 10 | −5170 |
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Han, S.; Zhang, B.; Sun, X.; Han, S.; Höök, M. China’s Energy Transition in the Power and Transport Sectors from a Substitution Perspective. Energies 2017, 10, 600. https://doi.org/10.3390/en10050600
Han S, Zhang B, Sun X, Han S, Höök M. China’s Energy Transition in the Power and Transport Sectors from a Substitution Perspective. Energies. 2017; 10(5):600. https://doi.org/10.3390/en10050600
Chicago/Turabian StyleHan, Shangfeng, Baosheng Zhang, Xiaoyang Sun, Song Han, and Mikael Höök. 2017. "China’s Energy Transition in the Power and Transport Sectors from a Substitution Perspective" Energies 10, no. 5: 600. https://doi.org/10.3390/en10050600