Distance to Default and Misspecification of Corporate Economic Value Added
Abstract
1. Introduction
1.1. Objectives
- The distance-to-default cost is incorporated into the weighted average cost of capital.
- The default-free capital structure is incorporated into the computation of a default-free EVA.
- Examine the firm-specific and macroeconomic determinants of default-free EVA.
1.2. Contribution
1.3. The Association Between the Cost of Capital, Credit Risk and Economic Value Added
1.3.1. Effects of Debt Financing on EVA
1.3.2. Effects of Credit Risk on the Cost of Capital
2. Data and Variables
2.1. Data
2.2. Dependent Variable
2.3. Derivation of the Default-Free EVA
2.4. Independent Variables
2.5. Control Variables
3. Results and Discussion
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
| EVA | Default-Free EVA | Stochastic Default-Free EVA | Stochastic Default-Free WACC | WACC | Default-Free WACC | |
| Mean | 384.5509447 | 126.4339641 | 125.5992825 | 0.098424354 | 0.033078576 | 0.098383086 |
| Standard Error | 76.16925315 | 151.3878502 | 151.3315683 | 0.020412005 | 0.005519291 | 0.020412721 |
| Median | 109.8978716 | 97.83826602 | 97.69121552 | 0.013758325 | 0.014132857 | 0.013722186 |
| Mode | 2653.064259 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 0.030052225 | #N/A |
| Standard Deviation | 834.3923628 | 1658.37081 | 1657.754272 | 0.223602313 | 0.060460803 | 0.223610153 |
| Sample Variance | 696,210.6151 | 2,750,193.742 | 2,748,149.226 | 0.049997994 | 0.003655509 | 0.0500015 |
| Kurtosis | 9.500701539 | 36.0434522 | 36.0852818 | 20.5755644 | 17.83248355 | 20.57515883 |
| Skewness | 1.563628926 | −5.117325453 | −5.12271833 | 4.081020198 | 3.735588433 | 4.080963656 |
| Range | 7742.937988 | 16,782.21159 | 16,776.92838 | 1.645842925 | 0.479501026 | 1.64670473 |
| Minimum | −2701.902003 | −11,784.98074 | −11,784.71219 | −0.022749713 | −0.049404182 | −0.023613639 |
| Maximum | 5041.035985 | 4997.230851 | 4992.216194 | 1.623093212 | 0.430096843 | 1.623091092 |
| Sum | 46,146.11337 | 15,172.07569 | 15,071.9139 | 11.81092247 | 3.969429136 | 11.80597028 |
| Count | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 |
| Long-Term Debt Ration | Short-Term Debt Ratio | LN Total Assets | Cash Conversion Cycle | Interest Coverage Ratio | Total Liabilities to EBITDA | |
| Mean | 0.319593461 | 0.244744059 | 8.85185537 | −13.6841719 | 2.592612675 | 66.71918472 |
| Standard Error | 0.005248095 | 0.001353555 | 0.018339582 | 32.38085271 | 1.653187791 | 6.835606103 |
| Median | 0.234336483 | 0.209342696 | 9.011260475 | 97.2728528 | 0.5 | 12.32995641 |
| Mode | 0.017611899 | 0 | 9.99501787 | 0 | 0 | 42.98427673 |
| Standard Deviation | 0.645323596 | 0.166437719 | 2.255097563 | 3981.660042 | 203.2816068 | 840.5294303 |
| Sample Variance | 0.416442544 | 0.027701514 | 5.085465017 | 15,853,616.69 | 41,323.41165 | 706,489.7232 |
| Kurtosis | 991.4200502 | 4.719212532 | −0.030932953 | 244.5043029 | 254.6261325 | 464.0980921 |
| Skewness | 24.08147254 | 1.675938393 | −0.50871517 | 6.758729143 | 4.083227744 | 13.25223201 |
| Range | 32.79090308 | 1.527968154 | 13.4707092 | 152,739.8029 | 11,336.65 | 61,086.3 |
| Minimum | 0.000227355 | −0.008576998 | 0.641853886 | −74,264.80288 | −4044 | −24,023.5 |
| Maximum | 32.79113043 | 1.519391156 | 14.11256309 | 78,475 | 7292.65 | 37,062.8 |
| Sum | 4832.25313 | 3700.530177 | 133,840.0532 | −206,904.6792 | 39,200.30365 | 1,008,794.073 |
| Count | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 |
| Sales Growth | Debt to Equity Ratio | Earnings per Share | Dividend per Share | GDP Growth | Inflation Rate | |
| Mean | 0.027291501 | 1.980211106 | 273.2104804 | 4825.064522 | 0.011750271 | 0.025521168 |
| Standard Error | 0.001769357 | 0.479192274 | 16.06149027 | 346.4046626 | 0.000105531 | 0.000127121 |
| Median | 0.001103068 | 0.895815006 | 0.368291463 | 0 | 0.012166613 | 0.023605015 |
| Mode | 0 | 1.657250242 | −0.321143338 | 0 | 0.016778036 | 0.03097345 |
| Standard Deviation | 0.217566191 | 58.92311568 | 1974.9756 | 42,595.09828 | 0.012976508 | 0.015631223 |
| Sample Variance | 0.047335047 | 3471.933562 | 3,900,528.623 | 1,814,342,397 | 0.00016839 | 0.000244335 |
| Kurtosis | 79.76948825 | 11,521.73018 | 122.7669026 | 191.2706933 | 30.96626594 | 3.81989994 |
| Skewness | 1.425938597 | 100.7325797 | 8.34599473 | 12.402552 | −2.144085293 | 1.260251462 |
| Range | 7.954898819 | 7588.456522 | 81,091.25136 | 988,300.4107 | 0.170187531 | 0.10258972 |
| Minimum | −3.713572067 | −819.4565217 | −44,883.33333 | −0.410669841 | −0.086086712 | −0.0162336 |
| Maximum | 4.241326753 | 6769 | 36,207.91803 | 988,300 | 0.084100819 | 0.08635612 |
| Sum | 412.6474925 | 29,940.79192 | 4,130,942.463 | 72,954,975.57 | 177.6641006 | 385.8800534 |
| Count | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 |
| Economic Cycle | Entertainment | Software (System and Application) | Pharmacy Services | Medical Supplies | Diversified Co. | |
| Mean | 0.028624362 | 0.039021164 | 0.251124339 | 0.006878307 | 0.01223545 | 0.01223545 |
| Standard Error | 0.003059258 | 0.001574873 | 0.003526856 | 0.000672172 | 0.000894077 | 0.000894077 |
| Median | 0.147828944 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mode | −0.011299835 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Standard Deviation | 0.376176768 | 0.193651731 | 0.433674237 | 0.082652572 | 0.109938814 | 0.109938814 |
| Sample Variance | 0.14150896 | 0.037500993 | 0.188073344 | 0.006831448 | 0.012086543 | 0.012086543 |
| Kurtosis | 4.830101088 | 20.67495741 | −0.682402559 | 140.4383751 | 76.7678974 | 76.7678974 |
| Skewness | −2.452007787 | 4.761535744 | 1.147905799 | 11.93397665 | 8.874555929 | 8.874555929 |
| Range | 1.904184244 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Minimum | −1.622854597 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maximum | 0.281329647 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sum | 432.8003547 | 590 | 3797 | 104 | 185 | 185 |
| Count | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 |
| E-Commerce | Air Transport | Biotechnology | Semiconductor | Computer Software/Svcs | Internet | |
| Mean | 0.028306878 | 0.006878307 | 0.044378307 | 0.083399471 | 0.013756614 | 0.010714286 |
| Standard Error | 0.001348805 | 0.000672172 | 0.001674815 | 0.002248589 | 0.000947297 | 0.0008373 |
| Median | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mode | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Standard Deviation | 0.165853605 | 0.082652572 | 0.205940957 | 0.276494223 | 0.116482903 | 0.102957228 |
| Sample Variance | 0.027507418 | 0.006831448 | 0.042411678 | 0.076449055 | 0.013568267 | 0.010600191 |
| Kurtosis | 30.36667206 | 140.4383751 | 17.58618304 | 7.084210793 | 67.72904809 | 88.37378189 |
| Skewness | 5.688818447 | 11.93397665 | 4.425365165 | 3.013847001 | 8.349855642 | 9.505897761 |
| Range | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Minimum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maximum | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sum | 428 | 104 | 671 | 1261 | 208 | 162 |
| Count | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 |
| Telecom. Services | Industrial Services | Retail (General) | Transportation | Real Estate (General/Diversified) | Healthcare Equipment | |
| Mean | 0.026785714 | 0.016071429 | 0.053571429 | 0.010714286 | 0.005357143 | 0.016071429 |
| Standard Error | 0.001313089 | 0.001022698 | 0.001831256 | 0.0008373 | 0.000593661 | 0.001022698 |
| Median | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mode | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Standard Deviation | 0.161461958 | 0.125754458 | 0.22517745 | 0.102957228 | 0.072998605 | 0.125754458 |
| Sample Variance | 0.026069964 | 0.015814184 | 0.050704884 | 0.010600191 | 0.005328796 | 0.015814184 |
| Kurtosis | 32.37195709 | 57.25788569 | 13.72820657 | 88.37378189 | 181.7325406 | 57.25788569 |
| Skewness | 5.862394997 | 7.69742242 | 3.965651357 | 9.505897761 | 13.55391095 | 7.69742242 |
| Range | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Minimum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maximum | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sum | 405 | 243 | 810 | 162 | 81 | 243 |
| Count | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 |
| Wireless Networking | Advertising | Construction | Financial Svcs. (Div.) | Drugs (Biotechnology) | Food Processing | |
| Mean | 0.005357143 | 0.005357143 | 0.005357143 | 0.021428571 | 0.010714286 | 0.010714286 |
| Standard Error | 0.000593661 | 0.000593661 | 0.000593661 | 0.001177691 | 0.0008373 | 0.0008373 |
| Median | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mode | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Standard Deviation | 0.072998605 | 0.072998605 | 0.072998605 | 0.144812896 | 0.102957228 | 0.102957228 |
| Sample Variance | 0.005328796 | 0.005328796 | 0.005328796 | 0.020970775 | 0.010600191 | 0.010600191 |
| Kurtosis | 181.7325406 | 181.7325406 | 181.7325406 | 41.70275059 | 88.37378189 | 88.37378189 |
| Skewness | 13.55391095 | 13.55391095 | 13.55391095 | 6.610388368 | 9.505897761 | 9.505897761 |
| Range | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Minimum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maximum | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sum | 81 | 81 | 81 | 324 | 162 | 162 |
| Count | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 |
| Hotel/Gaming | Beverage (Soft Drink) | Retail (Automotive) | Automotive | Human Resources | Computers/Peripherals | |
| Mean | 0.005357143 | 0.005357143 | 0.005357143 | 0.010714286 | 0.005357143 | 0.010714286 |
| Standard Error | 0.000593661 | 0.000593661 | 0.000593661 | 0.0008373 | 0.000593661 | 0.0008373 |
| Median | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mode | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Standard Deviation | 0.072998605 | 0.072998605 | 0.072998605 | 0.102957228 | 0.072998605 | 0.102957228 |
| Sample Variance | 0.005328796 | 0.005328796 | 0.005328796 | 0.010600191 | 0.005328796 | 0.010600191 |
| Kurtosis | 181.7325406 | 181.7325406 | 181.7325406 | 88.37378189 | 181.7325406 | 88.37378189 |
| Skewness | 13.55391095 | 13.55391095 | 13.55391095 | 9.505897761 | 13.55391095 | 9.505897761 |
| Range | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Minimum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maximum | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sum | 81 | 81 | 81 | 162 | 81 | 162 |
| Count | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 |
| Broadcasting | Software (Internet) | Bank (Money Center) | Electronics | Aerospace/Defense | Heavy Truck and Equip | |
| Mean | 0.005357143 | 0.005357143 | 0.005357143 | 0 | 0.010714286 | 0.005357143 |
| Standard Error | 0.000593661 | 0.000593661 | 0.000593661 | 0 | 0.0008373 | 0.000593661 |
| Median | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mode | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Standard Deviation | 0.072998605 | 0.072998605 | 0.072998605 | 0 | 0.102957228 | 0.072998605 |
| Sample Variance | 0.005328796 | 0.005328796 | 0.005328796 | 0 | 0.010600191 | 0.005328796 |
| Kurtosis | 181.7325406 | 181.7325406 | 181.7325406 | 0 | 88.37378189 | 181.7325406 |
| Skewness | 13.55391095 | 13.55391095 | 13.55391095 | 0 | 9.505897761 | 13.55391095 |
| Range | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Minimum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maximum | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sum | 81 | 81 | 81 | 0 | 162 | 81 |
| Count | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 |
| Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration) | Beverage | Computer Services | Farming/Agriculture | Drug (Pharma) | Apparel | |
| Mean | 0.010714286 | 0.005357143 | 0.005357143 | 0.005357143 | 0.005357143 | 0.005357143 |
| Standard Error | 0.0008373 | 0.000593661 | 0.000593661 | 0.000593661 | 0.000593661 | 0.000593661 |
| Median | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mode | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Standard Deviation | 0.102957228 | 0.072998605 | 0.072998605 | 0.072998605 | 0.072998605 | 0.072998605 |
| Sample Variance | 0.010600191 | 0.005328796 | 0.005328796 | 0.005328796 | 0.005328796 | 0.005328796 |
| Kurtosis | 88.37378189 | 181.7325406 | 181.7325406 | 181.7325406 | 181.7325406 | 181.7325406 |
| Skewness | 9.505897761 | 13.55391095 | 13.55391095 | 13.55391095 | 13.55391095 | 13.55391095 |
| Range | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Minimum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maximum | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sum | 162 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 |
| Count | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 | 15,120 |
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| Variable | Model 1: Determinants of Observed EVA | Model 2: Determinants of Zero-Default EVA | Model 3: Determinants of Stochastic Zero-Default EVA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constant | 10.47572 (3.027) *** | 8.056842 (1.798) * | 7.99796 (1.792) * |
| Net Working capital ratio | 51.78647 (3.370) *** | 168.6697 (5.694) *** | 168.9547 (5.708) *** |
| Short-term Debt Ratio | −75.9448 (−1.918) ** | 14.07871 (0.248) | 13.3739 (0.236) |
| Firm size (ln Total Assets) | −22.7933 (−1.677) * | −40.0511 (−2.190) ** | −40.0768 (−2.194) ** |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 0.003833 (0.698) | 0.017539 (2.014) ** | 0.017616 (2.026) ** |
| Total Liabilities to EBITDA ratio | 0.022004 (5.486) *** | 0.034709 (8.270) *** | 0.034658 (8.266) *** |
| Sales Growth Rate | 49.99391 (9.721) *** | 56.73516 (8.165) *** | 56.54164 (8.146) *** |
| Earnings Per Share | 0.261856 (14.517) *** | 0.310334 (13.728) *** | 0.309417 (13.686) *** |
| Inflation Rate | 704.5796 (4.039) *** | 532.7791 (2.258) ** | 514.1045 (2.182) ** |
| Industry Dummy | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.4255 | 0.3257 | 0.3256 |
| S.E. of regression | 3553.902 | 8015.698 | 8015.766 |
| Durbin–Watson stat | 2.888 | 2.835 | 2.836 |
| Mean dependent var | 64.22 | 130.43 | 130.42 |
| S.D. dependent var | 3582.746 | 8081.638 | 8081.3 |
| Sum squared residuals | 1.88 × 1011 | 9.54 × 1011 | 9.54 × 1011 |
| J-statistic | 3.44 × 1000 | 2.142933 | 2.134608 |
| Prob(J-statistic) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
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Share and Cite
Eldomiaty, T.; Azzam, I.; Fouad, J.; Abdelazim, M.H. Distance to Default and Misspecification of Corporate Economic Value Added. J. Risk Financ. Manag. 2026, 19, 327. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19050327
Eldomiaty T, Azzam I, Fouad J, Abdelazim MH. Distance to Default and Misspecification of Corporate Economic Value Added. Journal of Risk and Financial Management. 2026; 19(5):327. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19050327
Chicago/Turabian StyleEldomiaty, Tarek, Islam Azzam, Jasmin Fouad, and Mohamed H. Abdelazim. 2026. "Distance to Default and Misspecification of Corporate Economic Value Added" Journal of Risk and Financial Management 19, no. 5: 327. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19050327
APA StyleEldomiaty, T., Azzam, I., Fouad, J., & Abdelazim, M. H. (2026). Distance to Default and Misspecification of Corporate Economic Value Added. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 19(5), 327. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19050327

