This section focuses on interpreting the estimation results and discussing the results with related theories and previous research.
4.1. Findings
Table 2 presents the descriptive statistics for the dependent, independent, and control variables used in the research model. The ETR variable reflects the proportion of tax paid by enterprises relative to their pre-tax income, with a mean value of 0.1912 and a standard deviation of 0.0839. This suggests that, on average, firms in the sample pay approximately 19.12% of their pre-tax income in taxes. In terms of accrual-based earnings management, the proxies AEM1, AEM2, and AEM3 each report a mean value of 0.0822, indicating that the enterprises manage earnings through accruals equivalent to about 8.22% of their total assets. Similarly, real earnings management, measured using EM1, EM2, and EM3, shows average values of 0.0974, 0.0627, and 0.1094, respectively. These figures imply that managers engage in earnings management of approximately 9.74%, 6.27%, and 10.94% of the total assets through operational activities such as manipulating cash flows, production costs, and discretionary expenditures. Finally, FE, which represents gender diversity on the board of directors, has a mean of 0.1534 and a standard deviation of 0.1663. This indicates that female directors constitute roughly 15.34% of board members, a relatively low proportion. For instance, based on the typical board size of 11 members regulated by Vietnam’s Enterprise Law, this equates to only one or two female directors per board.
Table 3 presents the correlation matrix of the variables used in the research model. The results indicate that the proxies for earnings management exhibit a negative univariate linear correlation with the tax avoidance variable, significant at the 10% level. Furthermore, the correlations among the independent variables are all below 0.8, suggesting a relatively low degree of association and reducing initial concerns about multicollinearity.
In addition, the results of autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity tests are presented in
Table 4. As shown, the Wooldridge test for autocorrelation rejects the null hypothesis of no serial correlation, with a
p-value of 0.0000, indicating the presence of autocorrelation in the error terms. Similarly, the results of the Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity showed that all
p-values are below the 10% significance level. This led to the rejection of the null hypothesis, confirming that heteroskedasticity is also present. These findings suggest that the model’s residuals violate classical assumptions, necessitating robust estimation techniques.
Table 5,
Table 6,
Table 7 and
Table 8 present the relationship between earnings management (EM) and corporate tax avoidance (TAXV) under FEM and REM regressions. Based on their results, it can be seen that there is an inconsistency in the direction of the impact of earnings management variables on corporate tax avoidance. Specifically, when using models with AEM variables, the impact of earnings management on tax avoidance is often negative and statistically significant, indicating that accounting earnings management can reduce the level of tax avoidance. However, when using EM variables, the results are unstable: some models show a positive impact, and some are not statistically significant, reflecting the ambiguity in the relationship. This inconsistency may originate from endogeneity as well as from the phenomenon of heteroscedasticity, which cannot be resolved by FEM and REM estimation, reducing the reliability of the estimates. These are common limitations in panel data analysis and need to be controlled in the next steps of the GMM analysis.
The tables below present the relationship between earnings management (EM) and corporate tax avoidance (TAXV) and assess the role of female board participation (FEIB) as a control variable (
Table 9 and
Table 10) and a moderator variable, EM × FEIB (
Table 11 and
Table 12). The GMM regression results presented in these tables show that the model’s suitability and reliability have been verified through important diagnostic tests. Specifically, the AR(2) tests indicate that all
p-values exceed the 0.1 significance threshold, indicating that there is no second-order serial correlation in error terms, a necessary condition to ensure the validity of the GMM estimate (
Arellano & Bover, 1995;
Blundell & Bond, 1998). In addition, the Hansen test for the validity of the instrumental variables also gives positive results, with most
p-values ranging from 0.1 to 0.4, following the suggestions of
Roodman (
2009). This shows that the instruments used in the model are appropriate and show no signs of misuse. Furthermore, the difference-in-Hansen test continues to confirm the exogeneity of the instrument subsets with high
p-values (
p-value ≥ 0.5), confirming that they are exogenous and appropriate for the system estimations. These results collectively support the robustness of the instrument set and justify the use of the System-GMM estimator over the Difference-GMM alternative. After using the two-step System-GMM estimation, the results show consistency in the direction of the impact of earnings management and the control variables on corporate tax avoidance.
In the FEM/REM estimations (
Table 5,
Table 6,
Table 7 and
Table 8), the effects of AEM and REM on tax avoidance (TAXV1 and TAXV2) are inconsistent and mostly statistically insignificant, or even slightly negative. However, the results in
Table 9 and
Table 10 show that all six proxies of earnings management (including the three proxies of earnings management through accruals (AEM1, AEM2, and AEM3) and the three proxies of real earnings management (REM1, REM2, and REM3)) have a positive and statistically significant effect at the 1% level on TAXV1 and TAXV2. These results suggest that when dynamic and endogenous factors are not well controlled, as in FEM/REM, the true relationship between earnings management and tax avoidance may be misjudged or obscured. In
Table 9, the coefficient of AEM1 is 0.0258 (t = 3.98), while the coefficient of REM1 is 0.0364 (t = 6.80), indicating that firms that practice earnings management have a greater tendency to avoid taxes. For the FEIB variable, the results also show a clear differentiation between the two methods, with most of them being statistically insignificant in the FEM/REM estimations. In the GMM estimations, the FEIB variable exhibits a highly significant negative coefficient in all models, with values ranging from −0.0315 to −0.0943 (e.g., 0.0336 in AEM1, −0.0345 in REM1), indicating that the presence of women on the board of directors is negatively related to tax avoidance. In other words, a higher proportion of women on the management team is associated with fewer firm tax avoidance behaviors.
Table 10 extends the analysis with TAXAV2 as the dependent variable, an alternative measure of tax avoidance. The results maintain a similar trend, with AEM coefficients ranging from 0.0397 (AEM1) to 0.0630 (AEM3) and REM coefficients ranging from 0.0089 (REM3) to 0.0344 (REM2). Notably, AEM is often noted as a popular method of earnings management that is more influential than REM (
Richardson et al., 2016b). However, this study shows that the two indices, REM1 (based on discretionary cash flows from operations) and REM2 (based on discretionary production costs), have a stronger or equivalent impact on tax avoidance behavior than the AEM indices. Moreover, in the models using AEM, the EM coefficient is higher than that of TAXAV1, reflecting that accrual accounting has a stronger relationship with tax avoidance in the short term. Similarly, FEIB continues to have negative coefficients ranging from −0.0244 to −0.0764 and is significant at the 1% level, but the absolute values of the coefficients are lower than in
Table 9. All of these results will be discussed in detail in
Section 4.2.
In
Table 11 and
Table 12, when the interaction variable between earnings management and the proportion of women on the board of directors (EM × FEIB) is included, the results continue to confirm the positive relationship between EM and TAXV1 as well as TAXV2. In
Table 11, all coefficients of the interaction variable are negative and statistically significant at the 1% level, ranging from −0.1625 (REM2) to −0.6002 (AEM1). At the same time, the coefficient of EM increases significantly compared to that in
Table 9 (e.g., AEM1 increases from 0.0258 to 0.1095), reflecting that, in the absence of female leadership, the impact of earnings management on tax avoidance becomes more pronounced. In
Table 12, the coefficient of the interaction variable EM × FEIB continues to be statistically significant at the 1% level and ranges from −0.2629 (REM1) to −0.8552 (AEM1). These results confirm that female leadership also weakens the relationship between earnings management and tax avoidance. The coefficient of EM in the interaction model continues to increase, notably reaching values of 0.1771 (AEM1) and 0.1114 (REM3), reinforcing the argument that earnings management has a stronger impact on tax avoidance in the absence of women on the board of directors. In both tables, the individual effect of FEIB becomes unstable and is insignificant in some models, emphasizing the significance of the moderating role of the interaction variable. Indeed, the individual coefficient of FEIB in these models reflects the impact of female leadership on tax avoidance when the FEIB x EM interaction is zero, a rare case in practice. Therefore, the real impact of female leadership is only evident when firms engage in earnings management, which is reflected by the negative and highly significant coefficient of the interaction variable. These results suggest that female participation not only directly reduces the level of tax avoidance but also weakens the relationship between earnings management and tax avoidance.
In addition, the control variables DEBT and LNTA have positive effects, while FEIB, FIXA, and FAGE consistently have significant negative effects on tax avoidance behavior, as shown in
Table 9,
Table 10,
Table 11 and
Table 12. DEBT (the financial leverage ratio) has a positive coefficient and is statistically significant at the 1% level in all models (e.g., DEBT (AEM1 and AEM3) is 0.0200 in
Table 10 and 0.0421 (AEM2) in
Table 11, while DEBT (REM1) is 0.0123 in
Table 10 and 0.0539 (REM2) in
Table 9), suggesting that firms with high debt ratios tend to avoid taxes more, possibly because the pressure from debt obligations motivates tax optimization behavior. Meanwhile, FIXA (the fixed asset ratio) has a negative coefficient in TAXV1 models and is statistically significant in many cases (e.g., FIXA (AEM1) is −0.0153 in
Table 9 and −0.0099 (AEM3) in
Table 11) but is mostly not statistically significant in the models with TAXAV2, except for when it has the value of −0.0093 (t = −2.79) in the REM2 model. This result suggests that large numbers of fixed assets may reduce the possibility of adopting flexible tax avoidance strategies due to their rigidity and transparency. LNTA (the logarithm of assets) has a positive and statistically significant coefficient ranging from 10% to 1% in the four tables. For example, LNTA (AEM1) is 0.0012 (t = 1.77) in
Table 9 and increases to 0.0038 (t = 3.09) in
Table 11 (AEM3), and LNTA in REM3 is 0.0012 (t = 2.48) in
Table 10 and increases to 0.0046 (t = 3.76) in
Table 12, suggesting that larger firms tend to have higher levels of tax avoidance, possibly because they have the resources and capabilities to implement more sophisticated tax strategies. FAGE (firm age) is always negative and highly statistically significant in all models. For example, FAGE in AEM1 is −0.0052 (t = −4.59) in
Table 11 and –0.0026 (t = −4.59) in
Table 12. Similarly, FAGE (REM2) is −0.0156 (t = −13.67) in
Table 11, while FAGE (REM1) is –0.0051 (t = −4.33) in
Table 11. These results suggest that older firms are less likely to avoid taxes because they have established a reputation and tend to better comply with the law.
4.2. Discussions
The empirical findings provide clear support for all three proposed hypotheses, interpreted through the frameworks of agency theory, political cost theory, and resource dependence theory. First, the regression results from
Table 9 and
Table 10 confirm a statistically significant and positive association between all proxies of earnings management (both accrual-based and real-activity-based) and corporate tax avoidance. This outcome is consistent with the predictions of agency theory (
Jensen & Meckling, 1976;
Desai & Dharmapala, 2009), which emphasizes the conflict of interest between managers and shareholders. Managers, incentivized by performance-linked compensation, may engage in earnings management to reduce taxable income and enhance reported profitability (
Amidu et al., 2019;
Kovermann & Velte, 2019). This behavior reflects managerial opportunism aimed at maximizing personal benefits. Previous empirical studies support this view, including those by
Hlel (
2024),
Thalita et al. (
2022), and
Amidu et al. (
2019), all of which found that earnings management is commonly used to support tax minimization strategies. These findings are also consistent with political cost theory (
Watts & Zimmerman, 1983), which posits that large firms may adopt conservative reporting practices to reduce public scrutiny and tax burdens. The consistent and significant results across models confirm Hypothesis 1 and reinforce the argument that earnings management is closely linked to tax avoidance behavior.
However, this study shows that indicators such as REM1 (based on discretionary cash flows from operations) and REM2 (based on discretionary production costs) have a stronger impact on tax avoidance than the AEM indicators in some models. This is because the institutional environment and accounting systems in developing countries are still in the process of being perfected, and enterprises tend to prioritize forms of earnings management that are difficult to detect, typically REM—disguised as normal business decisions (e.g., operating cash flows or production cash flows)—which is harder to trace than AEM, which leaves clear traces in accounting items such as provisions, depreciation, or revenue recognition (
Almaharmeh et al., 2024). Moreover, in the context of a tax system that does not have a strict separation between accounting profits and real taxable profits, the manipulation of costs and cash flows through real operations easily leads to higher tax avoidance efficiency. Indeed, AEM, with its clear reporting characteristics, is more easily detected by auditors or regulators, while REM is a less risky strategy for concealing tax avoidance through real earnings management (
Elmawazini et al., 2024). This result reflects the preferred difference in accounting practices that help businesses achieve their profit and tax objectives in the context of a developing economy.
Second, the findings support Hypothesis 2 by demonstrating a significant negative relationship between female board representation and corporate tax avoidance (
Table 9 and
Table 10). These findings reflect the governance-enhancing role of women in the boardroom, as suggested by agency theory. Female directors contribute to more effective monitoring, promote ethical standards, and reduce managerial discretion in tax-related decisions (
Kwamboka et al., 2025;
Zhang et al., 2022;
Amin et al., 2021). These results align with earlier studies such as those by
Richardson et al. (
2016a),
Hoseini et al. (
2019), and
Zhang et al. (
2022) which found that boards with higher levels of female participation are associated with lower levels of tax avoidance. This finding is further supported by resource dependence theory (
Hillman & Dalziel, 2003), which emphasizes that gender-diverse boards enhance a firm’s legitimacy and stakeholder trust. Aggressive tax practices can undermine external relationships and public reputation, whereas the presence of women in leadership helps promote transparency and compliance. Thus, female directors play a preventative role against high-risk or unethical tax strategies, contributing to more sustainable governance outcomes.
Third, the most significant theoretical contribution of this study lies in the confirmation of Hypothesis 3, where the interaction term (EM × FEIB) across all models in
Table 11 and
Table 12 exhibits a strong and statistically significant negative effect. This finding implies that the presence of women on corporate boards mitigates the extent to which earnings management contributes to tax avoidance. In other words, in firms without female directors, the practice of earnings management, whether through accounting adjustment (AEM) or real operation (REM), is associated with an increased tendency to engage in tax avoidance. However, when firms have female directors, this association becomes weaker or even reverses. These results align with the combined predictions of agency theory and political cost theory. Female directors—through their enhanced ethical awareness, risk aversion, and monitoring effectiveness—limit managers’ ability to exploit earnings management as a vehicle for tax avoidance (
Srinidhi et al., 2011;
Bart & McQueen, 2013). These results echo prior findings from
Riguen et al. (
2020) and
Giannarou and Tzeremes (
2025), which demonstrated that gender-diverse boards are more effective in supervising complex managerial decisions, particularly in ethically sensitive areas such as tax and auditing. Furthermore, this moderating role highlights the governance function of female directors. While earnings management alone increases tax avoidance, the presence of women on the board suppresses direct tax aggressiveness and also disrupts the transmission mechanism from earnings management to tax behavior. This dual effect of direct and moderating influence underscores the strategic importance of board gender diversity in constraining managerial opportunism and maintaining responsible corporate conduct.
Hence, the consistency of the findings in this study, especially in the context of an emerging economy like Vietnam, reinforces the importance of cultural and institutional factors in shaping the effectiveness of gender diversity. This study contributes to the literature by providing comprehensive evidence that not only supports the individual impacts of earnings management and gender diversity on tax avoidance but also sheds light on the interplay between these mechanisms, a dimension that has been underexplored in previous research.