South Africa’s Vice Chancellors’ Historical and Future Salary Predictors from 2016 to 2026
Abstract
1. Introduction
- To determine the benefits as a percentage of the fixed salary;
- To identify the relationship between the predictors and VCs’ salaries;
- To forecast and analyse the history of VC’s fixed and benefits costs from 2016 to 2026.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Literature Review
2.1.1. Agency Theory
2.1.2. Institutional Theory
2.1.3. Predictors of Executive Remuneration
2.2. Research Methodology
2.2.1. Research Design
2.2.2. Sample and Sampling Method
2.2.3. Source of Data
- The annual reports must be available on Google;
- They must list the student enrolment, revenue, and VC salaries;
- They must include the Statement of Financial Position and Statement of Comprehensive Income.
2.2.4. Data Collection Procedure
2.2.5. Conceptual and Operational Definitions of Variables
2.2.6. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Results
3.2. Benefits as a Percentage of Fixed Salary
3.3. Relationship Between Target and Predictor Variables
- Revenue: The 95% confidence interval does not include zero, indicating the correlation is statistically significant at the 5% level. The mean bootstrapped correlation coefficient was 0.7718. On average, there was a positive linear relationship between Revenue and Fixed.
- Debt ratio: The 95% confidence interval does not include zero, indicating the correlation is statistically significant at the 5% level. The mean bootstrapped correlation coefficient was 0.8427. On average, this suggests a positive linear relationship between the Debt ratio and Fixed Assets.
- Benefits: The 95% confidence interval does not include zero, indicating the correlation is statistically significant at the 5% level. The mean bootstrapped correlation coefficient was 0.8876. On average, there is a positive linear relationship between Benefits and Fixed.
- Total students: The 95% confidence interval does not include zero, indicating the correlation is statistically significant at the 5% level. The mean bootstrapped correlation coefficient was 0.7876. On average, there is a positive linear relationship between the Total Number of students and the Fixed Amount.
3.4. Historical and Forecast of VCs’ Benefits and Fixed Costs from 2024 to 2026
3.4.1. Benefits of Historical Salary Benefits and Forecasting
- Historical Data (Blue Line): This line reflects the actual ‘Benefits’ values from 2016 to 2023. You can see the specific amounts for each year (e.g., R114.61M in 2016, R160.09M in 2019, peaking at R190.21M in 2022, and then R162.90M in 2023). This line shows the past trend and any fluctuations in Benefits.
- Holt–Winters Fitted Values (Orange Line): This line represents the values that the Holt–Winters model calculated for the historical period (2016–2023) based on the identified trend (additive trend in this case). These fitted values try to capture the underlying pattern in the historical data, smoothing out some of the year-to-year variations. It is observable that how closely the orange line follows the blue line; the differences between them indicate the model’s error in capturing the exact historical values. For example, the fitted value for 2022 is R174.77M, which is lower than the actual R190.21M.
- Holt–Winters Forecast (Green Dashed Line): This line extends from the end of the historical data (2023) and shows the model’s predictions for the next three years (2024, 2025, and 2026). The forecast is based on the trend extrapolated from historical data. The forecast values are approximately R172.48M for 2024, R175.91M for 2025, and R179.34M for 2026. The upward slope of the dashed line indicates that the model forecasts a continued increasing trend in Benefits over the next three years (2024 to 2026).
3.4.2. Fixed Historical Salary and Forecasting
- Historical Data (Blue Line): This line shows the actual Fixed values from 2016 to 2023. You can see the specific amounts (e.g., R377.85M in 2016, R542.03M in 2019, R552.53M in 2022, and then R483.03M in 2023). This line shows the past trend and fluctuations in Fixed expenses.
- Holt–Winters Fitted Values (Orange Line): This line represents the Holt–Winters model’s calculated values for the historical period (2016–2023) based on its identified additive trend. Similar to Benefits, this line smooths the historical data. One can observe where the orange line deviates from the blue line, indicating where the model’s trend does not perfectly match the historical fluctuations. For instance, the fitted value for 2023 is R581.32M, while the actual value was R483.03M, reflecting a significant difference.
- Holt–Winters Forecast (Green Dashed Line): This line shows the model’s predictions for Fixed from 2024 to 2026. The forecast values were approximately R552.57M for 2024, R562.29M for 2025, and R572.00M for 2026. The upward slope of the dashed line suggests that the model forecasts a continued increasing trend in fixed expenses over the next three years, similar to Benefits.
4. Discussion
5. Managerial Implication(s)
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
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Maleka, M.J.; Mayavo, C. South Africa’s Vice Chancellors’ Historical and Future Salary Predictors from 2016 to 2026. J. Risk Financial Manag. 2025, 18, 550. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18100550
Maleka MJ, Mayavo C. South Africa’s Vice Chancellors’ Historical and Future Salary Predictors from 2016 to 2026. Journal of Risk and Financial Management. 2025; 18(10):550. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18100550
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaleka, Molefe Jonathan, and Crossman Mayavo. 2025. "South Africa’s Vice Chancellors’ Historical and Future Salary Predictors from 2016 to 2026" Journal of Risk and Financial Management 18, no. 10: 550. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18100550
APA StyleMaleka, M. J., & Mayavo, C. (2025). South Africa’s Vice Chancellors’ Historical and Future Salary Predictors from 2016 to 2026. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(10), 550. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18100550