The Fire That Does Not Go Out: The Neglected Costs of Gas Flaring in Nigeria
Highlights
- The paper examines gas flaring as an environmental public health risk in Nigeria’s Niger Delta, where many communities live close to flare sites.
- It focuses on child health, assessing whether flaring exposure is associated with illness, poor nutrition, and mortality among children under 5 years of age.
- The study provides one of the first large-scale analyses of gas flaring and child health in Nigeria, where evidence has previously been limited.
- It generates new evidence on the wider health costs of routine gas flaring in a major oil-producing region.
- The findings suggest that gas flaring should be treated not only as an environmental issue but also as a child health concern.
- The study also shows how satellite data can help researchers assess environmental health risks in settings with limited monitoring data.
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data Sources
2.2. Method
3. Results and Discussion
| Flare Location by Satellite | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2013 Share | 2018 Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abia | 1027 | 2255 | 2601 | 1032 | 1096 | 1604 | 1556 | 1% | 0% |
| Akwa Ibom | 3715 | 6070 | 4992 | 5206 | 5059 | 5528 | 5350 | 1% | 1% |
| Anambra | 91 | 610 | 533 | 414 | - | - | - | 0% | 0% |
| Bayelsa | 39,400 | 38,600 | 45,100 | 32,500 | 42,000 | 42,600 | 50,000 | 9% | 11% |
| Delta | 46,900 | 59,000 | 54,500 | 59,600 | 45,500 | 66,800 | 107,000 | 14% | 23% |
| Edo | 12,200 | 18,100 | 18,200 | 18,800 | 7324 | 13,800 | 23,200 | 4% | 5% |
| Imo | 15,100 | 14,200 | 8608 | 6901 | 7961 | 6816 | 6053 | 3% | 1% |
| Ondo | 2434 | 2635 | 2447 | - | - | - | - | 1% | 0% |
| Rivers | 45,600 | 42,500 | 47,900 | 41,800 | 53,400 | 53,300 | 52,200 | 10% | 11% |
| Offshore | 194,000 | 236,000 | 204,000 | 181,000 | 181,000 | 182,000 | 226,000 | 56% | 48% |
| Total flaring by satellite estimates | 480,623 | 419,970 | 388,880 | 347,254 | 343,340 | 372,448 | 471,359 | 100% | 100% |
| Official flaring estimates from the DPR | 465,257 | 427,971 | 393,840 | 330,933 | 288,917 | 324,192 | 321,290 | ||
| Gap (as % of satellite total) | 3% | 2% | 1% | −5% | −16% | −13% | −32% |

4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
| Dataset | Source | Coverage | Period | Key Variables |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIIRS Nightfire Gas Flaring | NOAA/Suomi satellite via gasflaretracker.ng | All onshore and offshore flare sites in the Niger Delta, Nigeria | 2012–2018 (monthly) | Geographic coordinates of flare sites; monthly estimates of flare volume (MMCF) |
| Nigerian DHS (Round 6) | DHS Programme/NPC | Nationally representative; analysis restricted to the Niger Delta states + the Cross River | 2013 | Child morbidity (cough, respiratory symptoms, fever, and diarrhoea); anthropometrics (HAZ, WHZ, and WAZ); birth history and mortality; parental and household characteristics; cluster GPS coordinates (displaced up to 2 km urban and up to 10 km rural) |
| Nigerian DHS (Round 7) | DHS Programme/NPC | Nationally representative; analysis restricted to the Niger Delta states | 2018 | Same as DHS 2013 above |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | Cough Rate | Respiratory Issue Rate | Fever Rate | Diarrhoea Rate | Stunting Rate | Wasting Rate | Underweight Rate | Infant Mortality Rate | Child Mortality Rate | Under-5 Mortality Rate |
| Flaring exposure | 0.09 ** | 0.08 ** | 0.09 ** | −0.02 | 0.08 ** | 0.08 * | 0.10 ** | 0.01 | −0.01 | 0.00 |
| [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | |
| Wealth quintile | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.22 *** | −0.17 ** | −0.28 *** | −0.11 | −0.27 *** | −0.14 ** | −0.14 ** | −0.18 *** |
| [0.07] | [0.07] | [0.07] | [0.07] | [0.07] | [0.07] | [0.07] | [0.07] | [0.07] | [0.07] | |
| Poor roof rate | −0.02 | −0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | 0.05 | −0.06 | 0.02 | −0.05 |
| [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | |
| Poor wall rate | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.14 ** | −0.14 ** | 0.01 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.05 |
| [0.06] | [0.06] | [0.06] | [0.06] | [0.06] | [0.06] | [0.06] | [0.06] | [0.06] | [0.06] | |
| Persons per room | 0.10 ** | 0.10 ** | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.04] | |
| Reads newspaper rate | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.07 | −0.04 | −0.11 ** | −0.01 | −0.07 | 0.06 | −0.00 | 0.05 |
| [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.05] | |
| Rural | 0.02 | −0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 | −0.03 | 0.00 | −0.07 | 0.23 ** | −0.02 | 0.20 ** |
| [0.10] | [0.10] | [0.10] | [0.10] | [0.09] | [0.10] | [0.09] | [0.10] | [0.10] | [0.09] | |
| Year = 2018 | 0.00 | −0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | 0.00 | −0.00 | 0.00 |
| [0.08] | [0.08] | [0.08] | [0.08] | [0.08] | [0.08] | [0.08] | [0.08] | [0.08] | [0.08] | |
| Constant | −0.01 | 0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | 0.02 | −0.00 | 0.04 | −0.14 | 0.01 | −0.12 |
| [0.09] | [0.09] | [0.09] | [0.09] | [0.08] | [0.09] | [0.09] | [0.09] | [0.09] | [0.09] | |
| Observations | 603 | 603 | 603 | 603 | 595 | 595 | 595 | 603 | 603 | 603 |
| R-squared | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.03 |

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| Variable | Weighted Obs. | Mean | Std. Dev. | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Child Incidence of Disease | |||||
| Cough dummy (0/1) | 9722 | 0.17 | 0.38 | 0 | 1 |
| Respiratory issues dummy (0/1) | 9789 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 0 | 1 |
| Fever dummy (0/1) | 9720 | 0.19 | 0.39 | 0 | 1 |
| Diarrhoea dummy (0/1) | 9714 | 0.06 | 0.23 | 0 | 1 |
| Child Anthropometric Characteristics | |||||
| Stunted (1 if <−2 SD) | 6317 | 0.18 | 0.39 | 0 | 1 |
| Wasted (1 if <−2 SD) | 6316 | 0.09 | 0.29 | 0 | 1 |
| Underweight (1 if <−2 SD) | 6323 | 0.11 | 0.32 | 0 | 1 |
| Child Mortality | |||||
| Infant mortality (under 12 months) rate | 10,555 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0 | 1 |
| Child mortality (12–59 months) rate | 10,555 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0 | 1 |
| Under-5 mortality (0–59 months) rate | 10,555 | 0.07 | 0.25 | 0 | 1 |
| Child Characteristics | |||||
| Gender (boy child dummy) | 9789 | 0.51 | 0.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Age Of Child (years) | 9789 | 2.37 | 1.49 | 0 | 5 |
| Parental Characteristics | |||||
| Mother’s education (years) | 9788 | 9.97 | 3.94 | 0 | 20 |
| Age of Mother at first birth (years) | 9789 | 21.85 | 4.79 | 12 | 48 |
| Mother’s current partner’s education (years) | 9006 | 10.61 | 3.83 | 0 | 20 |
| Mother reads newspaper dummy (0/1) | 9771 | 0.27 | 0.44 | 0 | 1 |
| Household Characteristics | |||||
| Has TV Dummy (0/1) | 9562 | 0.73 | 0.44 | 0 | 1 |
| Poorest wealth quintile | 9789 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0 | 1 |
| Poorer wealth quintile | 9789 | 0.09 | 0.29 | 0 | 1 |
| Middle wealth quintile | 9789 | 0.23 | 0.42 | 0 | 1 |
| Richer wealth quintile | 9789 | 0.32 | 0.47 | 0 | 1 |
| Richest wealth quintile | 9789 | 0.34 | 0.47 | 0 | 1 |
| Fuel type: electricity/LPG/natural gas/biogas) | 9565 | 0.09 | 0.29 | 0 | 1 |
| Fuel type: kerosene | 9565 | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0 | 1 |
| Fuel type: (coal/charcoal/wood/straw/shrubs) | 9565 | 0.58 | 0.49 | 0 | 1 |
| Poor roof dummy (0/1) | 9561 | 0.06 | 0.23 | 0 | 1 |
| Poor wall dummy (0/1) | 9562 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 0 | 1 |
| Person per room (persons/room) | 9779 | 3.34 | 1.66 | 0.02 | 12 |
| Urban or rural (1 = urban/2 = rural) | 9789 | 1.52 | 0.50 | 1 | 2 |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | Child Has Cough | Child Has Respiratory Issues Symptoms | Child Has Fever | Child Has Diarrhoea | Child Is Stunted | Child Is Wasted | Child Is Underweight |
| Flaring exposure | 0.03 *** | 0.03 *** | 0.03 *** | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 ** | 0.01 * |
| [0.01] | [0.01] | [0.01] | [0.00] | [0.01] | [0.00] | [0.00] | |
| Boy child | 0.01 | 0.01 | −0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 * | 0.01 | 0.02 ** |
| [0.01] | [0.01] | [0.01] | [0.01] | [0.01] | [0.01] | [0.01] | |
| Mother education (years) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 ** | 0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 * |
| [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | |
| 1. Age (years) | 0.11 *** | 0.11 *** | 0.11 *** | 0.04 *** | 0.00 | 0.03 * | 0.01 |
| [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.01] | [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.02] | |
| 2. Age (years) | 0.07 *** | 0.06 *** | 0.10 *** | 0.01 | 0.10 *** | −0.04 * | 0.01 |
| [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.01] | [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.02] | |
| 3. Age (years) | 0.06 *** | 0.05 *** | 0.06 *** | −0.01 | 0.08 *** | −0.09 *** | −0.02 |
| [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.01] | [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.02] | |
| 4. Age (years) | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 *** | −0.03 *** | 0.04 * | −0.08 *** | −0.01 |
| [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.01] | [0.01] | [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.02] | |
| 5. Age (years) | −0.01 | −0.01 | 0.04 ** | −0.02 | 0.04 * | −0.08 *** | 0.00 |
| [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.01] | [0.03] | [0.02] | [0.02] | |
| Age of Mother at first birth (years) | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | |
| Mother’s partner’s education (years) | 0.00 ** | 0.00 *** | 0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 ** | −0.00 | −0.00 * |
| [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | |
| Has TV | −0.02 | −0.02 | 0.00 | −0.01 | 0.03 | −0.01 | 0.01 |
| [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.01] | [0.02] | [0.01] | [0.01] | |
| Poorer wealth quintile | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.07 ** | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.05] | [0.04] | [0.06] | [0.03] | [0.04] | |
| Middle wealth quintile | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.08 ** | −0.02 | 0.00 | −0.00 |
| [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.06] | [0.04] | [0.06] | [0.03] | [0.04] | |
| Richer wealth quintile | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.06 |
| [0.04] | [0.04] | [0.06] | [0.04] | [0.06] | [0.03] | [0.04] | |
| Richest wealth quintile | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.09 ** | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.06 |
| [0.05] | [0.05] | [0.06] | [0.04] | [0.06] | [0.03] | [0.04] | |
| Kerosene cooking fuel type | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| [0.03] | [0.03] | [0.03] | [0.01] | [0.03] | [0.02] | [0.02] | |
| Coal/charcoal/wood/straw shrubs cooking fuel type | −0.05 | −0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.04 | −0.00 | 0.03 |
| [0.03] | [0.03] | [0.03] | [0.01] | [0.03] | [0.02] | [0.02] | |
| Poor roof | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | −0.01 | 0.01 |
| [0.03] | [0.03] | [0.04] | [0.02] | [0.04] | [0.02] | [0.03] | |
| Poor wall | −0.00 | −0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 * | −0.02 | 0.00 |
| [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.01] | [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.02] | |
| Person per room | 0.01 ** | 0.01 ** | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | [0.00] | |
| Mother reads newspapers | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | 0.01 | −0.01 |
| [0.01] | [0.01] | [0.01] | [0.01] | [0.02] | [0.01] | [0.01] | |
| Rural | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 |
| [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.01] | [0.02] | [0.01] | [0.01] | |
| 2018. year | 0.05 *** | 0.06 *** | 0.06 *** | 0.00 | 0.03 * | −0.07 *** | −0.01 |
| [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.02] | [0.01] | [0.01] | [0.01] | [0.01] | |
| Constant | 0.10 | 0.11 * | 0.09 | 0.13 *** | 0.23 *** | 0.19 *** | 0.16 *** |
| [0.06] | [0.06] | [0.08] | [0.05] | [0.08] | [0.05] | [0.06] | |
| Observations | 9754 | 9803 | 9750 | 9754 | 6521 | 6523 | 6528 |
| R-squared | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
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© 2026 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license.
Share and Cite
Alimi, O.B.; Gibson, J. The Fire That Does Not Go Out: The Neglected Costs of Gas Flaring in Nigeria. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2026, 23, 430. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph23040430
Alimi OB, Gibson J. The Fire That Does Not Go Out: The Neglected Costs of Gas Flaring in Nigeria. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2026; 23(4):430. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph23040430
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlimi, Omoniyi Babatunde, and John Gibson. 2026. "The Fire That Does Not Go Out: The Neglected Costs of Gas Flaring in Nigeria" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 23, no. 4: 430. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph23040430
APA StyleAlimi, O. B., & Gibson, J. (2026). The Fire That Does Not Go Out: The Neglected Costs of Gas Flaring in Nigeria. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 23(4), 430. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph23040430

