Modelling of Waning of Immunity and Reinfection Induced Antibody Boosting of SARS-CoV-2 in Manaus, Brazil

Wei, Haozhen; Musa, Salihu S.; Zhao, Yanji; He, Daihai

doi:10.3390/ijerph19031729

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Modelling of Waning of Immunity and Reinfection Induced Antibody Boosting of SARS-CoV-2 in Manaus, Brazil

Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China

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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19(3), 1729; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031729

Submission received: 26 December 2021 / Revised: 30 January 2022 / Accepted: 31 January 2022 / Published: 2 February 2022

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Contributions of Government Measures, Meteorological Variations, and Human Activities on Transmissions of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and Novel Infectious Diseases)

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Abstract

It was reported that the Brazilian city, Manaus, likely exceeded the herd immunity threshold (presumably 60–70%) in November 2020 after the first wave of COVID-19, based on the serological data of a routine blood donor. However, a second wave started in November 2020, when an even higher magnitude of deaths hit the city. The arrival of the second wave coincided with the emergence of the Gamma (P.1) variant of SARS-CoV-2, with higher transmissibility, a younger age profile of cases, and a higher hospitalization rate. Prete et al. (2020 MedRxiv 21256644) found that 8 to 33 of 238 (3.4–13.9%) repeated blood donors likely were infected twice in Manaus between March 2020 and March 2021. It is unclear how this finding can be used to explain the second wave. We propose a simple model which allows reinfection to explain the two-wave pattern in Manaus. We find that the two waves with 30% and 40% infection attack rates, respectively, and a reinfection ratio at 3.4–13.9%, can explain the two waves well. We argue that the second wave was likely because the city had not exceeded the herd immunity level after the first wave. The reinfection likely played a weak role in causing the two waves.

Keywords: COVID-19; waning of immunity; boosting of immunity; reinfection

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MDPI and ACS Style

Wei, H.; Musa, S.S.; Zhao, Y.; He, D. Modelling of Waning of Immunity and Reinfection Induced Antibody Boosting of SARS-CoV-2 in Manaus, Brazil. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 1729. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031729

AMA Style

Wei H, Musa SS, Zhao Y, He D. Modelling of Waning of Immunity and Reinfection Induced Antibody Boosting of SARS-CoV-2 in Manaus, Brazil. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(3):1729. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031729

Chicago/Turabian Style

Wei, Haozhen, Salihu S. Musa, Yanji Zhao, and Daihai He. 2022. "Modelling of Waning of Immunity and Reinfection Induced Antibody Boosting of SARS-CoV-2 in Manaus, Brazil" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 3: 1729. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031729

APA Style

Wei, H., Musa, S. S., Zhao, Y., & He, D. (2022). Modelling of Waning of Immunity and Reinfection Induced Antibody Boosting of SARS-CoV-2 in Manaus, Brazil. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(3), 1729. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031729

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Modelling of Waning of Immunity and Reinfection Induced Antibody Boosting of SARS-CoV-2 in Manaus, Brazil

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