The Spatial-Temporal Variation Characteristics of Natural Vegetation Drought in the Yangtze River Source Region, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Datasets
2.2.1. Hydro-Meteorological Data
2.2.2. Land Use/Land Cover Data
2.2.3. Soil Map and Soil Properties
2.2.4. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Data
2.3. Methodology
2.3.1. Drought Index and Drought Identification
Standardized Water Supply-Demand Index (SSDI)
Drought Event Identification Based on Theory of Runs
- 1.
- Drought duration (DD) is defined as the time between the initiation and termination of a drought event, which is expressed in months in this study.
- 2.
- Drought severity (DS) is the sum of SSDIs during the drought duration.
- 3.
- Drought peak (DP) is the maximum absolute value of SSDIs of a drought event.
- 4.
- Drought coverage area (DA) is the region affected by the drought, which is calculated as follows:
2.3.2. Trend Analysis for Drought Characteristic
Linear Regression Analysis
Mann–Kendall Test
2.3.3. Calculation of Bivariate Probability and Return Period via Copula Function
Selection of Marginal Distributions
Selection of Copulas
Bivariate Probability and Return Period
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Time-Series Comparison of SSDI and SPEI with NDVI
3.2. Temporal and Spatial Variability of Drought Characteristics
3.2.1. Temporal Variability of Droughts
3.2.2. Spatial Pattern of Drought Characteristics
3.2.3. Effect of Time Scales on Drought Characteristics
3.2.4. Sensitivity of Drought Characteristics to the Temperature
3.3. Regional Bivariate Probability and Return Period
3.3.1. Selection of the Marginal Distributions and Copulas
3.3.2. Regional Bivariate Probability of Drought Events
3.3.3. Bivariate Return Period of Drought Events
3.4. Spatial Distribution of Bivariate Probability and Return Period in the YRSR
4. Conclusions
- The time-series of SSDI and Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Drought Index (SPEI) with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were compared in this study. There exists a higher correlation between constructed SSDI and NDVI. This result indicated that the constructed SSDI was reliable and can reflect the comprehensive characteristics of the ecological drought information more easily and effectively.
- The YRSR had witnessed the most severe drought episodes in the periods of late-1970s, mid-1980s and mid-1990s, but the SSDI showed a wetting trend since the mid-2000s, mainly because of a warmer and wetter climate in the most recent 10 years. However, the climate change has different effects on the dry condition at seasonal scales. The drought affected areas in spring, summer and autumn have decreased since 2000 while this area in winter has increased. The drought duration and severity showed a spatial variation among different regions in the YRSR. Generally, droughts in the Southern YRSR were relatively more severe with longer drought duration, implying that the Southern YRSR was an area that had been facing challenging drought conditions. The average drought duration and severity in the YRSR would be less susceptible to changes in temperature when the increase temperature was above 1.0 °C. However, the characteristics would be more susceptible to temperature in the YRSR when the increase temperature were above 1.0 °C. The average drought duration and severity is shown to increase by 20.7% and 32.6% with a 1 °C increase in temperature for the hypothetical scenarios with ΔT > 1 °C.
- The return periods of five sub-basins and the entire YRSR for case ‘‘∩” were longer than those in case ‘‘∪” and their spatial trends are highly consistent. High return periods were found in Qumar River Basin. While, low return periods were found in most areas of Togton River Basin and Dam River Basin, implying that severe ecological drought events occurred more frequently.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Drought Grade | Range of SSDI Value |
---|---|
Near normal | 1.00 > SSDI > −1.00 |
Moderate drought | −1.00 ≥ SSDI > −1.50 |
Severe drought | −1.50 ≥ SSDI > −2.00 |
Extreme drought | −2.00 ≥ SSDI |
Subregion | DD vs. DS | DD vs. DP | DS vs. DP | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Copula | Parameter (θ) | Copula | Parameter (θ) | Copula | Parameter (θ) | |
I | Frank | 33.094 | Frank | 8.192 | Frank | 10.202 |
II | Frank | 25.537 | Frank | 9.184 | Frank | 11.220 |
III | Frank | 31.090 | Frank | 7.205 | Frank | 8.897 |
IV | Frank | 32.708 | Frank | 9.804 | Frank | 11.906 |
V | Frank | 18.411 | Clayton | 2.042 | Clayton | 3.509 |
YRSR | Frank | 27.058 | Frank | 9.024 | Frank | 10.889 |
Region | T | DD | DS | DP | DD vs. DS Return Period | DD vs. DP Return Period | DS vs. DP Return Period | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Case∪ | Case ∩ | Case∪ | Case ∩ | Case∪ | Case ∩ | |||||
Subregion I | 5 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 6.0 |
10 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 0.6 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 15.7 | 7.6 | 14.5 | |
20 | 9.0 | 13.2 | 1.0 | 16.5 | 25.4 | 12.9 | 44.1 | 13.4 | 39.2 | |
50 | 12.5 | 18.4 | 2.0 | 35.1 | 87.1 | 28.5 | 204.2 | 29.2 | 173.7 | |
100 | 15.2 | 22.3 | 3.1 | 62.3 | 253.9 | 53.7 | 719.7 | 54.6 | 598.3 | |
Subregion II | 5 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 0.2 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 5.9 |
10 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 0.5 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 14.9 | 7.8 | 13.9 | |
20 | 8.2 | 12.6 | 1.0 | 16.0 | 26.7 | 13.3 | 40.6 | 13.7 | 36.7 | |
50 | 11.5 | 17.6 | 1.9 | 33.8 | 96.1 | 29.0 | 182.6 | 29.7 | 158.2 | |
100 | 14.0 | 21.4 | 3.0 | 60.4 | 289.5 | 54.3 | 633.5 | 55.1 | 536.3 | |
Subregion III | 5 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 6.0 |
10 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 0.4 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 15.4 | 7.7 | 14.3 | |
20 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 0.7 | 16.9 | 24.5 | 13.1 | 42.6 | 13.6 | 38.1 | |
50 | 11.6 | 16.6 | 1.2 | 36.0 | 81.6 | 28.7 | 194.9 | 29.4 | 167.1 | |
100 | 14.2 | 20.4 | 1.7 | 63.7 | 232.0 | 54.0 | 682.7 | 54.8 | 571.7 | |
Subregion IV | 5 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 5.8 |
10 | 6.6 | 9.8 | 0.5 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 14.5 | 7.9 | 13.6 | |
20 | 9.5 | 14.0 | 0.8 | 16.6 | 25.1 | 13.4 | 39.2 | 13.9 | 35.7 | |
50 | 13.3 | 19.6 | 1.3 | 35.4 | 85.4 | 29.2 | 174.1 | 29.9 | 151.8 | |
100 | 16.1 | 23.9 | 1.8 | 62.7 | 246.9 | 54.5 | 599.6 | 55.4 | 511.0 | |
Subregion V | 5 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.6 |
10 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 0.6 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 14.2 | 8.2 | 12.8 | |
20 | 9.3 | 14.3 | 1.0 | 16.8 | 24.6 | 13.6 | 38.0 | 14.5 | 32.1 | |
50 | 13.3 | 20.5 | 1.7 | 35.9 | 82.2 | 29.4 | 166.1 | 31.0 | 129.6 | |
100 | 16.4 | 25.3 | 2.4 | 63.6 | 234.5 | 54.8 | 567.8 | 56.7 | 422.9 | |
YRSR | 5 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 0.2 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 5.9 |
10 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 0.6 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 15.0 | 7.8 | 14.0 | |
20 | 7.9 | 12.3 | 1.0 | 16.1 | 26.3 | 13.2 | 41.0 | 13.7 | 37.2 | |
50 | 11.1 | 17.2 | 1.8 | 34.1 | 93.3 | 28.9 | 185.0 | 29.6 | 161.5 | |
100 | 13.5 | 20.9 | 2.7 | 60.9 | 278.6 | 54.2 | 643.0 | 55.0 | 549.6 |
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Yin, J.; Yuan, Z.; Li, T. The Spatial-Temporal Variation Characteristics of Natural Vegetation Drought in the Yangtze River Source Region, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 1613. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18041613
Yin J, Yuan Z, Li T. The Spatial-Temporal Variation Characteristics of Natural Vegetation Drought in the Yangtze River Source Region, China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(4):1613. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18041613
Chicago/Turabian StyleYin, Jun, Zhe Yuan, and Ting Li. 2021. "The Spatial-Temporal Variation Characteristics of Natural Vegetation Drought in the Yangtze River Source Region, China" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 4: 1613. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18041613