How Important Is Behavioral Change during the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Mathematical Modeling Study
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Epidemic Data
2.2. Social Distancing Strategies in Korea and Italy
2.3. Mathematical Model Considering Behavioral Change
2.4. Sensitivity Analysis: PRCC-LHS
3. Results
3.1. Data Fitting Result
3.2. Sensitivity Analysis
3.3. Analysis of Behavioral Change
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
COVID-19 | Coronavirus disease 2019 |
NPIs | Nonpharmaceutical interventions |
WHO | World Health Organization |
KDCA | Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency |
ISS | Italian National Institute of Health |
CFR | Case fatality ratio |
PRCC | Partial rank coefficient correlation |
LHS | Latin hypercube sampling |
BCT | Behavior change timing |
Appendix A. Reproductive Number R(t)
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Parameters | Korea | Italy | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Symbol | Description | Value (CI) | References | Value (CI) | References |
Number of people who changed their behavior per the number of daily incidence | 23,000 (15,000, 31,000) | data-fit | 1500 (1400, 1600) | data-fit | |
Transmission rate in normal susceptible group (per day) | 0.55 (0.49, 0.61) | data-fit | 0.40 (0.39, 0.40) | data-fit | |
Reduction ratio of transmission in the behavior-changed group | 0.074 (0.023, 0.13) | data-fit | 0.23 (0.023, 0.13) | data-fit | |
Latent period (days) | 2.1 | [24,25] | 2.1 | [24,25] | |
Infectious period (days) | 6 | [25,26] | 7.16 | [25,27] | |
Isolation period (days) | 20.7 | [23] | 20.7 | [23] | |
f | Case fatality ratio | 0.022 | [4] | 0.14 | [5] |
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Lee, J.; Lee, S.-M.; Jung, E. How Important Is Behavioral Change during the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Mathematical Modeling Study. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 9855. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189855
Lee J, Lee S-M, Jung E. How Important Is Behavioral Change during the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Mathematical Modeling Study. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(18):9855. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189855
Chicago/Turabian StyleLee, Jongmin, Seok-Min Lee, and Eunok Jung. 2021. "How Important Is Behavioral Change during the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Mathematical Modeling Study" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 18: 9855. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189855