Next Article in Journal
Association between Statins and Retinal Vascular Occlusion: A Population-Based Cohort Study
Next Article in Special Issue
Factors Associated with the Work Engagement of Employees Working from Home during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan
Previous Article in Journal
Factors Influencing Turnover Intention among Male Nurses in Korea
Previous Article in Special Issue
Association of Visual Display Terminal Usage with Self-Rated Health and Psychological Distress among Japanese Office Workers during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Article

How Important Is Behavioral Change during the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Mathematical Modeling Study

1
Mathematics Department, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Korea
2
Department of Liberal Arts, Hongik University College of Engineering, Seoul 04066, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Takahiro Tabuchi, Naoki Kondo and Kota Katanoda
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18(18), 9855; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189855
Received: 26 July 2021 / Revised: 14 September 2021 / Accepted: 15 September 2021 / Published: 18 September 2021
How important is the speed and intensity of behavioral change due to government policies, such as enhanced social distancing or lockdown, when an emerging infectious disease occurs? In this study, we introduce a deterministic SEIR model considering the behavior-changed susceptible group to investigate the effect of the speed and intensity of behavioral change on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We used epidemiological data from South Korea and Italy for the simulation study, because South Korea and Italy were the first countries to report an outbreak of COVID-19 after China and the prevention and response policy of each government were similar during the first outbreak of COVID-19. Simulation results showed that it took approximately twenty fewer days in Korea than in Italy until 90% of susceptible individuals changed their behavior during the first outbreak. It was observed that the behavior-changed susceptible individuals reduced the COVID-19 transmission rate by up to 93% in Korea and 77% in Italy. Furthermore, if the intensity and speed of behavioral change in Italy were the same as in Korea, the expected number of cumulative confirmed cases would have been reduced by approximately 95%, from 210,700 to 10,700, until the end of the lockdown period. We assumed that behavioral change is influenced by the number of confirmed cases and does not take into account social and cultural differences, as well as the state of the healthcare system, between the two countries. Our mathematical modeling showed how important the high intensity and fast speed of behavioral change to reduce the number of confirmed cases in the early period of an epidemic are. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; mathematical modeling; nonpharmaceutical intervention; behavioral change; social distancing COVID-19; mathematical modeling; nonpharmaceutical intervention; behavioral change; social distancing
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Lee, J.; Lee, S.-M.; Jung, E. How Important Is Behavioral Change during the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Mathematical Modeling Study. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 9855. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189855

AMA Style

Lee J, Lee S-M, Jung E. How Important Is Behavioral Change during the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Mathematical Modeling Study. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(18):9855. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189855

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lee, Jongmin, Seok-Min Lee, and Eunok Jung. 2021. "How Important Is Behavioral Change during the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Mathematical Modeling Study" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 18: 9855. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189855

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop