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Article

COVID-19 Vaccine Priority Strategy Using a Heterogenous Transmission Model Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the Republic of Korea

1
Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Korea
2
Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hallym University College of Medicine, Chuncheon 24252, Korea
3
Division of Public Health Emergency Response Research, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Cheongju 28159, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Eunha Shim
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18(12), 6469; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126469
Received: 7 May 2021 / Revised: 8 June 2021 / Accepted: 12 June 2021 / Published: 15 June 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Computational Modeling in Biology and Medicine)
(1) Background: The vaccine supply is likely to be limited in 2021 due to constraints in manufacturing. To maximize the benefit from the rollout phase, an optimal strategy of vaccine allocation is necessary based on each country’s epidemic status. (2) Methods: We first developed a heterogeneous population model considering the transmission matrix using maximum likelihood estimation based on the epidemiological records of individual COVID-19 cases in the Republic of Korea. Using this model, the vaccine priorities for minimizing mortality or incidence were investigated. (3) Results: The simulation results showed that the optimal vaccine allocation strategy to minimize the mortality (or incidence) was to prioritize elderly and healthcare workers (or adults) as long as the reproductive number was below 1.2 (or over 0.9). (4) Conclusion: Our simulation results support the current Korean government vaccination priority strategy, which prioritizes healthcare workers and senior groups to minimize mortality, under the condition that the reproductive number remains below 1.2. This study revealed that, in order to maintain the current vaccine priority policy, it is important to ensure that the reproductive number does not exceed the threshold by concurrently implementing nonpharmaceutical interventions. View Full-Text
Keywords: mathematical modeling; COVID-19; vaccine priority; reproductive number; maximum likelihood estimation; healthcare worker mathematical modeling; COVID-19; vaccine priority; reproductive number; maximum likelihood estimation; healthcare worker
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MDPI and ACS Style

Ko, Y.; Lee, J.; Kim, Y.; Kwon, D.; Jung, E. COVID-19 Vaccine Priority Strategy Using a Heterogenous Transmission Model Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the Republic of Korea. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 6469. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126469

AMA Style

Ko Y, Lee J, Kim Y, Kwon D, Jung E. COVID-19 Vaccine Priority Strategy Using a Heterogenous Transmission Model Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the Republic of Korea. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(12):6469. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126469

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ko, Youngsuk, Jacob Lee, Yeonju Kim, Donghyok Kwon, and Eunok Jung. 2021. "COVID-19 Vaccine Priority Strategy Using a Heterogenous Transmission Model Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the Republic of Korea" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 12: 6469. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126469

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