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Open AccessArticle

Evacuate or Stay? A Typhoon Evacuation Decision Model in China Based on the Evolutionary Game Theory in Complex Networks

by Dian Sun 1,2, Lupeng Zhang 3,* and Zifeng Su 4,5
1
School of Public Policy & Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
2
Center for Crisis Management Research (Sponsored by Beijing Planning Office of Philosophy & Social Science), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
3
School of Public Administration, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China
4
School of Economics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
5
Finance Research and Development Center, China Development Bank, Beijing 100032, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(3), 682; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17030682
Received: 12 December 2019 / Revised: 12 January 2020 / Accepted: 15 January 2020 / Published: 21 January 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Climate Change and Health)
The Chinese Government has played an important role in organizing the evacuation of typhoon disasters, and in-depth analysis of individual behavioral decisions is a prerequisite for adopting an effective emergency organization plan. Existing evacuation plans only consider how the Government issues the early warning and organizes the mandatory evacuation, but does not formulate effective policies to improve the efficiency of self-evacuation of evacuees and lacks the understanding of individual evacuation decision-making. Using game-based theory in a small-world network context, we build an evolutionary game model of evacuation decision diffusion between evacuees in the context of a complex network. The model simulates the effects of guaranteeing the evacuation order and providing material supplies on the evacuation decision diffusion in a small-world network in China. The results showed that various levels of policy-implementation led to different rates of evacuation. As the cost-reduction of the evacuation process increased, the evacuation response rate in the social system increased. In contrast, as the rate of reducing the non-evacuation cost decreased or the cost-reduction rate of non-evacuation increased, the evacuation response rate in the social system decreased. The study findings provided insights on emergency planning and the effectiveness of their implementation in social networks, which can be used to improve evacuation policy. View Full-Text
Keywords: emergency evacuation; evacuation decision-making; evolutionary game theory; evacuees emergency evacuation; evacuation decision-making; evolutionary game theory; evacuees
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Sun, D.; Zhang, L.; Su, Z. Evacuate or Stay? A Typhoon Evacuation Decision Model in China Based on the Evolutionary Game Theory in Complex Networks. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 682.

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