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Article

Two-Source Capture-Recapture Method to Estimate the Incidence of Acute Flaccid Paralysis in the Marches Region (Italy)

by
Pamela Barbadoro
1,2,*,
Aurora Luciani
1,
Matteo Ciotti
1,
Marcello Mario D’Errico
1,2 and
on behalf of the AFP Working Collaborative Group
3,†
1
Department of Biomedical Science and Public Health, Università Politecnica delle Marche, via Tronto 10/A, 6, 60121 Ancona, Italy
2
Infection Control Unit, AOU Ospedali Riuniti di Ancona, via Conca, 60126 Torrette di Ancona, Italy
3
School of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine, Department of Biomedical Science and Public Health, Università Politecnica delle Marche, via Tronto 10/A, 6, 60121 Ancona, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
†
AFP Working Collaborative Group: Anna Marigliano, Antonella D’Alleva, Claudia Recanatini, Marina Di Vincenzo, Jacopo Dolcini, Lara Rita Napolitano, Valerio Pasquale Di Buono, Marco Lombardi.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(24), 9400; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17249400
Submission received: 15 September 2020 / Revised: 28 November 2020 / Accepted: 28 November 2020 / Published: 15 December 2020
Versions Notes

Abstract

A combination of high infant immunization coverage and surveillance of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases, plays a critical role in polio eradication. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of AFP, to evaluate the completeness of AFP ascertainment during the years, age groups and gender, and to define the main associated diagnosis among children aged under 15 in the Marches region of Italy. Analysis was performed on data from the active AFP surveillance system and the hospital discharge records in the 2006–2014 period. The two-source capture-recapture method was applied. After cross-validation, 30 AFP compatible conditions as defined by the WHO were identified, with an incidence estimate of 1.91 cases of AFP per 100,000 children under 15 years (95% CI = 1.4–2.6/100,000). Guillain–Barrè syndrome was the most common diagnosis. A significant difference (p < 0.05) has been registered in the estimated probability of case ascertainment in females. The reasons for the lower reporting of cases in females are unknown. Specific research and the implementation of a more sensitive surveillance system are essential in verifying potential inequalities and to succeed in the polio eradication initiative.
Keywords: acute flaccid paralysis; poliomyelitis; surveillance systems; sensitivity; epidemiologic surveillance/methods; epidemiologic methods; socioeconomic factors; Italy acute flaccid paralysis; poliomyelitis; surveillance systems; sensitivity; epidemiologic surveillance/methods; epidemiologic methods; socioeconomic factors; Italy

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MDPI and ACS Style

Barbadoro, P.; Luciani, A.; Ciotti, M.; D’Errico, M.M.; on behalf of the AFP Working Collaborative Group. Two-Source Capture-Recapture Method to Estimate the Incidence of Acute Flaccid Paralysis in the Marches Region (Italy). Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 9400. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17249400

AMA Style

Barbadoro P, Luciani A, Ciotti M, D’Errico MM, on behalf of the AFP Working Collaborative Group. Two-Source Capture-Recapture Method to Estimate the Incidence of Acute Flaccid Paralysis in the Marches Region (Italy). International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(24):9400. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17249400

Chicago/Turabian Style

Barbadoro, Pamela, Aurora Luciani, Matteo Ciotti, Marcello Mario D’Errico, and on behalf of the AFP Working Collaborative Group. 2020. "Two-Source Capture-Recapture Method to Estimate the Incidence of Acute Flaccid Paralysis in the Marches Region (Italy)" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 24: 9400. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17249400

APA Style

Barbadoro, P., Luciani, A., Ciotti, M., D’Errico, M. M., & on behalf of the AFP Working Collaborative Group. (2020). Two-Source Capture-Recapture Method to Estimate the Incidence of Acute Flaccid Paralysis in the Marches Region (Italy). International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(24), 9400. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17249400

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