A Gravity-Based Food Flow Model to Identify the Source of Foodborne Disease Outbreaks
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Gravity Model
2.1. Method
2.2. Model Inputs
2.2.1. Area of Analysis and Zone Delineation
2.2.2. Inter-Zonal Distance Estimation
2.2.3. Intra-Zonal Distance Estimation
2.2.4. Retailer Revenue Estimation
2.2.5. Consumption Potential Estimation
2.2.6. Observed Trip Data
2.3. Model Calibration
2.4. Gravity Model Results
2.4.1. Food Flow Distribution
- (i)
- How many postal zones are supplied by a retailer zone?
- (ii)
- What proportion of goods are expected to be sold intra-zonally to consumers?
2.4.2. Revenue Estimation of Food Retailers in Affected Regions
2.4.3. Implication of Gravity Model Results
3. Application: Retailer Brand Identification
3.1. Retail Brand Source Identification Model
3.1.1. Network Model
3.1.2. Transmission Model
- The contaminated quantity is fixed and is composed of individual contaminated units that neither spread nor recover from contamination as they travel through the supply network.
- Each unit travels independently through the supply network.
- Each transition of a unit from one node to the next entails an independent transmission direction.
3.1.3. Traceback Algorithm: Bayesian Inference
3.2. Model Evaluation
3.2.1. Food Network Models
Food Network A (with Gravity Model)
Food Network B (without Gravity Model)
3.2.2. Outbreak Simulation
3.2.3. Modeling Results
3.2.4. Interpretation of Results
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Parameter | Flow Threshold | ||
---|---|---|---|
>0% | >5% | >10% | |
Number of supplied consumer zones | 49 | 5.3 | 2.6 |
Proportion of intra-zonal flows | 28.5% |
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Schlaich, T.; Horn, A.L.; Fuhrmann, M.; Friedrich, H. A Gravity-Based Food Flow Model to Identify the Source of Foodborne Disease Outbreaks. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 444. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17020444
Schlaich T, Horn AL, Fuhrmann M, Friedrich H. A Gravity-Based Food Flow Model to Identify the Source of Foodborne Disease Outbreaks. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(2):444. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17020444
Chicago/Turabian StyleSchlaich, Tim, Abigail L. Horn, Marcel Fuhrmann, and Hanno Friedrich. 2020. "A Gravity-Based Food Flow Model to Identify the Source of Foodborne Disease Outbreaks" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 2: 444. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17020444