A Gravity-Based Food Flow Model to Identify the Source of Foodborne Disease Outbreaks
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Gravity Model
2.1. Method
2.2. Model Inputs
2.2.1. Area of Analysis and Zone Delineation
2.2.2. Inter-Zonal Distance Estimation
2.2.3. Intra-Zonal Distance Estimation
2.2.4. Retailer Revenue Estimation
2.2.5. Consumption Potential Estimation
2.2.6. Observed Trip Data
2.3. Model Calibration
2.4. Gravity Model Results
2.4.1. Food Flow Distribution
- (i)
- How many postal zones are supplied by a retailer zone?
- (ii)
- What proportion of goods are expected to be sold intra-zonally to consumers?
2.4.2. Revenue Estimation of Food Retailers in Affected Regions
2.4.3. Implication of Gravity Model Results
3. Application: Retailer Brand Identification
3.1. Retail Brand Source Identification Model
3.1.1. Network Model
3.1.2. Transmission Model
- The contaminated quantity is fixed and is composed of individual contaminated units that neither spread nor recover from contamination as they travel through the supply network.
- Each unit travels independently through the supply network.
- Each transition of a unit from one node to the next entails an independent transmission direction.
3.1.3. Traceback Algorithm: Bayesian Inference
3.2. Model Evaluation
3.2.1. Food Network Models
Food Network A (with Gravity Model)
Food Network B (without Gravity Model)
3.2.2. Outbreak Simulation
3.2.3. Modeling Results
3.2.4. Interpretation of Results
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Parameter | Flow Threshold | ||
---|---|---|---|
>0% | >5% | >10% | |
Number of supplied consumer zones | 49 | 5.3 | 2.6 |
Proportion of intra-zonal flows | 28.5% |
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Schlaich, T.; Horn, A.L.; Fuhrmann, M.; Friedrich, H. A Gravity-Based Food Flow Model to Identify the Source of Foodborne Disease Outbreaks. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 444. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17020444
Schlaich T, Horn AL, Fuhrmann M, Friedrich H. A Gravity-Based Food Flow Model to Identify the Source of Foodborne Disease Outbreaks. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(2):444. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17020444
Chicago/Turabian StyleSchlaich, Tim, Abigail L. Horn, Marcel Fuhrmann, and Hanno Friedrich. 2020. "A Gravity-Based Food Flow Model to Identify the Source of Foodborne Disease Outbreaks" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 2: 444. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17020444
APA StyleSchlaich, T., Horn, A. L., Fuhrmann, M., & Friedrich, H. (2020). A Gravity-Based Food Flow Model to Identify the Source of Foodborne Disease Outbreaks. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(2), 444. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17020444