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Open AccessArticle

Effectiveness of Social Measures against COVID-19 Outbreaks in Selected Japanese Regions Analyzed by System Dynamic Modeling

1
Graduate School of Technology Management, Ritsumeikan University, Osaka 567-8570, Japan
2
Discovery Research Laboratories, Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd., Kyoto 601-8550, Japan
3
TDB Center for Advanced Empirical Research on Enterprise and Economy, Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo 186-8603, Japan
4
Life Style by Design Research Unit, Institute for Future Initiatives, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan
5
Center for Research and Education on Drug Discovery, The Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences in Hokkaido University, Sapporo 060-0812, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(17), 6238; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176238
Received: 17 July 2020 / Revised: 13 August 2020 / Accepted: 19 August 2020 / Published: 27 August 2020
In Japan’s response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), virus testing was limited to symptomatic patients due to limited capacity, resulting in uncertainty regarding the spread of infection and the appropriateness of countermeasures. System dynamic modelling, comprised of stock flow and infection modelling, was used to describe regional population dynamics and estimate assumed region-specific transmission rates. The estimated regional transmission rates were then mapped against actual patient data throughout the course of the interventions. This modelling, together with simulation studies, demonstrated the effectiveness of inbound traveler quarantine and resident self-isolation policies and practices. A causal loop approach was taken to link societal factors to infection control measures. This causal loop modelling suggested that the only effective measure against COVID-19 transmission in the Japanese context was intervention in the early stages of the outbreak by national and regional governments, and no social self-strengthening dynamics were demonstrated. These findings may contribute to an understanding of how social resilience to future infectious disease threats can be developed. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; system dynamics; new infectious disease COVID-19; system dynamics; new infectious disease
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MDPI and ACS Style

Niwa, M.; Hara, Y.; Sengoku, S.; Kodama, K. Effectiveness of Social Measures against COVID-19 Outbreaks in Selected Japanese Regions Analyzed by System Dynamic Modeling. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 6238. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176238

AMA Style

Niwa M, Hara Y, Sengoku S, Kodama K. Effectiveness of Social Measures against COVID-19 Outbreaks in Selected Japanese Regions Analyzed by System Dynamic Modeling. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(17):6238. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176238

Chicago/Turabian Style

Niwa, Makoto; Hara, Yasushi; Sengoku, Shintaro; Kodama, Kota. 2020. "Effectiveness of Social Measures against COVID-19 Outbreaks in Selected Japanese Regions Analyzed by System Dynamic Modeling" Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 17, no. 17: 6238. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176238

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