Weather Conditions and Outdoor Fall Injuries in Northwestern Russia
Abstract
:1. Background
2. Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Study Population and Injury Data
2.3. Weather Conditions
2.4. Data Analysis
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Ethics Approval and Consent to Participate
References
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Weather Conditions | Cold Season 15 October–14 April (651 Days) | Warm Season 15 April–14 October (626 Days) |
---|---|---|
Mean daily air temperature, °C | ||
Minimum | −39.9 | −9.9 |
1st tertile | −7.0 | 9.0 |
Median | −3.1 | 12.2 |
2th tertile | −0.6 | 15.2 |
Maximum | 12.8 | 31.3 |
Mean daily atmospheric pressure, hPa | ||
Minimum | 964.2 | 971.0 |
1st tertile | 1002.2 | 1003.6 |
Median | 1007.5 | 1007.6 |
2th tertile | 1013.4 | 1011.1 |
Maximum | 1048.3 | 1038.5 |
Mean daily wind speed, m/s | ||
Minimum | 0.0 | 0.0 |
1st tertile | 2.4 | 2.1 |
Median | 2.9 | 2.5 |
2th tertile | 3.5 | 2.8 |
Maximum | 10.0 | 9.0 |
Mean daily relative humidity, % | ||
Minimum | 20.0 | 12.0 |
1st tertile | 82.2 | 65.2 |
Median | 86.0 | 72.0 |
2th tertile | 88.4 | 79.1 |
Maximum | 99.0 | 100.0 |
Amount of precipitation per 12 h measured at 6:00 p.m., mm | ||
Minimum | 0.0 | 0.0 |
1st tertile | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Median | 0.1 | 0.1 |
2th tertile | 0.4 | 0.3 |
Maximum | 10.0 | 14.0 |
Ground surface condition measured at 6:00 a.m., % of days | ||
Dry soil | 0.0 | 53.8 |
Moist soil | 10.1 | 41.1 |
Loose dry snow | 64.8 | 1.9 |
Compact or wet snow | 25.0 | 3.2 |
Characteristics | Cold Season 15 October–14 April, % (N = 717) | Warm Season 15 April–14 October, % (N = 408) | p |
---|---|---|---|
Sex, male | 48.1 | 51.7 | 0.246 |
Age group, years | <0.001 | ||
0–6 | 1.3 | 7.4 | |
7–17 | 17.6 | 22.5 | |
18–59 | 54.4 | 45.3 | |
60+ | 26.8 | 24.8 | |
Injury localization, ICD-10 | 0.023 | ||
S00-09: Head | 9.6 | 10.3 | |
S10-39: Trunk | 21.1 | 14.2 | |
S40-69: Upper extremity | 40.7 | 43.1 | |
S70-99: Lower extremity | 28.2 | 30.9 | |
Other | 0.4 | 1.5 | |
Injury severity, AIS | 0.816 | ||
1 Minor | 58.0 | 56.1 | |
2 Moderate | 31.4 | 33.1 | |
3 Severe, but not life-threatening | 10.6 | 10.8 | |
Hospitalization, yes | 10.7 | 13.2 | 0.210 |
Injury occurred on weekend * | 29.8 | 29.4 | 0.878 |
Time of injury, hours | 0.200 | ||
00:00–05:59 | 4.2 | 3.7 | |
06:00–11:59 | 20.8 | 18.5 | |
12:00–17:59 | 41.8 | 38.2 | |
18:00–23:59 | 26.4 | 29.6 | |
Not indicated | 6.9 | 10.1 |
Mechanisms | Cold Season 15 October–14 April, % (N = 717) | Warm Season 15 April–14 October, % (N = 408) | p |
---|---|---|---|
Mechanism of preceding activity | <0.001 | ||
Walking | 64.7 | 45.1 | |
Carrying something | 10.6 | 4.9 | |
Physical exercising | 8.1 | 8.8 | |
Going on a stairs | 7.4 | 5.6 | |
Working in a garden | 5.2 | 9.6 | |
Standing and sitting | 2.6 | 11.3 | |
Climbing up/down | 0.8 | 5.9 | |
Running | 0.6 | 8.8 | |
Accident mechanism | <0.001 | ||
Slipping | 82.7 | 27 | |
Stepping wrong or stumbling over something | 7.9 | 48.8 | |
Loss of balance and faintness | 5.7 | 14.7 | |
Other | 3.6 | 9.6 | |
Injury mechanism | <0.001 | ||
Fall on the same level | 83.7 | 71.8 | |
Fall on a stairs | 12.8 | 12.7 | |
Fall from a height | 3.5 | 15.4 |
Weather Conditions | N Days | N Cases | Simple Negative Binomial Regression | Multivariable Negative Binomial Regression * | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
APC, % (95% CI) | p | APC, % (95% CI) | p | |||
Mean daily air temperature, °C | ||||||
Low (≤−7.1) | 217 | 212 | −26.7 (−46.9, −6.6) | 0.009 | −20.7 (−42.0, 0.7) | 0.058 |
Med (−7.0 to −0.7) | 217 | 277 | Ref. | Ref. | ||
High (≥−0.6) | 217 | 228 | −20.4 (−41.6, 0.8) | 0.072 | −29.0 (−56.6, −1.4) | 0.039 |
Mean daily atmospheric pressure, hPa | ||||||
Low (≤1002.1) | 217 | 259 | 1.6 (−19.0, 22.1) | 0.882 | −1.4 (−21.4, 18.5) | 0.888 |
Med (1002.2 to 1013.2) | 217 | 255 | Ref. | Ref. | ||
High (≥1013.3) | 217 | 203 | −22.8 (−43.4, −2.2) | 0.03 | −15.8 (−36.6, 5.0) | 0.137 |
Mean daily wind speed, m/s | ||||||
Low (≤2.3) | 233 | 234 | −13.0 (−34.5, 8.4) | 0.233 | −5.1 (−26.3, 16.1) | 0.638 |
Med (2.4 to 3.4) | 208 | 238 | Ref. | Ref. | ||
High (≥3.5) | 210 | 245 | 1.9 (−19.1, 23.0) | 0.857 | −1.2 (−22.5, 20.2) | 0.913 |
Mean daily relative humidity, % | ||||||
Low (≤82.1) | 219 | 233 | −5.6 (−26.2, 15.0) | 0.596 | −2.7 (−24.7, 19.2) | 0.808 |
Med (82.2 to 88.3) | 216 | 243 | Ref. | Ref. | ||
High (≥88.4) | 216 | 241 | −0.8 (−21.6, 19.9) | 0.938 | −11.0 (−31.6, 9.6) | 0.293 |
Amount of precipitation per 12 h measured at 6:00 p.m., mm | ||||||
No (0.0) | 176 | 186 | 10.0 (−11.3, 31.3) | 0.359 | 6.2 (−15.5, 28.0) | 0.574 |
Low (0.1 to 0.3) | 252 | 241 | Ref. | Ref. | ||
Med/High (≥0.4) | 223 | 290 | 30.7 (10.9, 50.6) | 0.002 | 24.3 (4.7, 43.8) | 0.015 |
Ground surface condition measured at 6.00 a.m. | ||||||
No snow | 66 | 47 | Ref. | Ref. | ||
Loose dry snow | 422 | 453 | 41.0 (6.2, 75.8) | 0.021 | 26.7 (−14.4, 67.8) | 0.203 |
Compact/wet snow | 163 | 217 | 62.6 (25.2, 100.0) | 0.001 | 57.9 (20.1, 95.6) | 0.003 |
Weather Conditions | N Days | N Cases | Simple Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression | Multivariable Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression * | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
APC,% (95% CI) | p | APC,% (95% CI) | p | |||
Mean daily air temperature, °C | ||||||
Low (≤8.9) | 210 | 123 | −3.9 (−16.5, 8.7) | 0.544 | −0.8 (−14.4, 12.8) | 0.906 |
Med (9.0 to 15.1) | 208 | 161 | Ref. | Ref. | ||
High (≥15.2) | 208 | 124 | −14.2 (−27.1, −1.3) | 0.030 | −15.3 (−29.5, −1.1) | 0.034 |
Mean daily atmospheric pressure, hPa | ||||||
Low (≤1003.5) | 209 | 136 | −13.8 (−26.6, 0.1) | 0.035 | −15.7 (−28.4, −3.1) | 0.015 |
Med (1003.6 to 1010.9) | 210 | 144 | Ref. | Ref. | ||
High (≥1011) | 207 | 128 | −5.3 (−18.3, 7.8) | 0.429 | −6.0 (−19.6, 7.5) | 0.382 |
Mean daily wind speed, m/s | ||||||
Low (≤2.0) | 218 | 141 | 1.9 (−11.0, 14.7) | 0.779 | 0.6 (−13.3, 14.5) | 0.935 |
Med (2.1 to 2.7) | 202 | 137 | Ref. | Ref. | ||
High (≥2.8) | 206 | 130 | 0.0 (−12.9, 13.0) | 0.994 | −1.4 (−14.5, 11.7) | 0.834 |
Mean daily relative humidity, % | ||||||
Low (≤65.1) | 211 | 136 | 2.9 (−10.5, 16.3) | 0.676 | −4.6 (−35.3, 26.0) | 0.766 |
Med (65.2 to 79.0) | 208 | 128 | Ref. | Ref. | ||
High (≥79.1) | 207 | 144 | 3.4 (−9.6, 16.4) | 0.604 | −12.6 (−68.9, 43.7) | 0.661 |
Amount of precipitation per 12 h measured at 6:00 p.m., mm | ||||||
No (0.0) | 294 | 195 | 4.6 (−10.0, 19.1) | 0.535 | −6.8 (−24.9, 11.4) | 0.464 |
Low (0.1 to 0.2) | 129 | 80 | Ref. | Ref. | ||
Med/High (≥0.3) | 203 | 133 | 2.5 (−12.9, 18.0) | 0.747 | −17.2 (−45.0, 10.7) | 0.227 |
Ground surface condition measured at 6.00 a.m. | ||||||
Dry | 337 | 233 | Ref. | Ref. | ||
Moist | 257 | 153 | −4.9 (−16.0, 6.2) | 0.389 | 4.7 (−11.1, 20.5) | 0.561 |
Loose dry snow | 12 | 8 | 10.0 (−17.8, 37.9) | 0.480 | 29.8 (−3.3, 62.9) | 0.077 |
Compact/wet snow | 20 | 14 | −3.3 (−26.2, 19.6) | 0.777 | 24.5 (−3.6, 52.7) | 0.088 |
Mean daily relative humidity * Amount of precipitation per 12 h | 9.1 (−0.2, 18.1) | 0.045 | ||||
Mean relative humidity * Ground surface condition | −10.2 (−19.9, −0.5) | 0.039 |
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Unguryanu, T.N.; Grjibovski, A.M.; Trovik, T.A.; Ytterstad, B.; Kudryavtsev, A.V. Weather Conditions and Outdoor Fall Injuries in Northwestern Russia. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 6096. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176096
Unguryanu TN, Grjibovski AM, Trovik TA, Ytterstad B, Kudryavtsev AV. Weather Conditions and Outdoor Fall Injuries in Northwestern Russia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(17):6096. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176096
Chicago/Turabian StyleUnguryanu, Tatiana N., Andrej M. Grjibovski, Tordis A. Trovik, Børge Ytterstad, and Alexander V. Kudryavtsev. 2020. "Weather Conditions and Outdoor Fall Injuries in Northwestern Russia" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 17: 6096. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176096