Hot Weather and Suicide Deaths among Older Adults in Hong Kong, 1976–2014: A Retrospective Study
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data
2.2. Data Analyses
3. Results
3.1. Overview
3.2. Meteorological Risk Factors of Older-Adult Suicides
3.2.1. Violent Methods
3.2.2. Nonviolent Methods
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
I. Monthly Average |
i. daily maximum/mean/minimum ambient temperature; |
ii. diurnal ambient temperature range (difference between the daily maximum and minimum ambient temperature); |
iii. ambient temperature range over two days (the difference between the daily maximum and minimum ambient temperature of two consecutive days); |
iv. ambient temperature range over one week (the difference between the daily maximum and minimum ambient temperature for seven consecutive days); |
v. mean dewpoint; |
vi. mean amount of cloud; |
II. Monthly Total (Adjusted for the Number of Days in Each Month) of: |
i. hours of sunshine; |
ii. rainfall; |
III. Monthly (Adjusted for the Number of days in Each Month): |
i. number of days with a maximum ambient temperature of ≥ 33 °C (defined by Hong Kong Observatory as a “very hot day”); |
ii. number of occasions there were three consecutive days with a maximum ambient temperature of ≥ 33 °C; |
iii. number of days with a minimum ambient temperature of ≥ 28 °C (defined by Hong Kong Observatory as a “hot night”); |
iv. number of occasions there were three consecutive days with a minimum ambient temperature of ≥ 28 °C; |
v. number of days with a Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals (signal number 1 or above). |
Year | Annual Older-Adult Suicide Mortality Rate (per 100,000 Population) (per 100,000) | Average Daily Min. Ambient Temperature (°C) | Average Daily Max. Ambient Temperature (°C) | Total Number Of Days with Min. Ambient Temperature ≥28 °C | Total Number Of Days with Max. Ambient Temperature ≥33 °C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Violent Methods | Nonviolent Methods | |||||
1976 | 51.5 | 6.1 | 20.4 | 25.4 | 5 | 9 |
1977 | 42.9 | 5.4 | 21.1 | 26.4 | 14 | 17 |
1978 | 35.5 | 7.1 | 20.7 | 25.6 | 8 | 28 |
1979 | 41.5 | 5.6 | 21.0 | 25.8 | 10 | 14 |
1980 | 42.4 | 3.1 | 20.9 | 25.9 | 11 | 16 |
1981 | 26.4 | 3.8 | 21.2 | 25.5 | 10 | 5 |
1982 | 22.5 | 3.6 | 21.0 | 25.2 | 9 | 8 |
1983 | 31.0 | 2.1 | 21.1 | 25.4 | 30 | 13 |
1984 | 28.7 | 2.6 | 20.7 | 24.9 | 10 | 7 |
1985 | 34.0 | 3.4 | 20.8 | 25.0 | 2 | 2 |
1986 | 38.4 | 5.0 | 20.8 | 25.3 | 12 | 7 |
1987 | 38.6 | 2.3 | 21.6 | 25.7 | 20 | 9 |
1988 | 36.2 | 2.2 | 20.9 | 25.1 | 16 | 4 |
1989 | 33.4 | 3.8 | 21.1 | 25.3 | 17 | 15 |
1990 | 41.6 | 3.1 | 21.2 | 25.4 | 24 | 13 |
1991 | 37.2 | 2.6 | 21.6 | 25.9 | 19 | 12 |
1992 | 37.7 | 4.0 | 20.9 | 25.2 | 15 | 16 |
1993 | 35.0 | 3.7 | 21.2 | 25.5 | 24 | 6 |
1994 | 37.3 | 2.1 | 21.7 | 25.9 | 4 | 5 |
1995 | 35.1 | 2.7 | 20.9 | 25.2 | 15 | 7 |
1996 | 26.0 | 2.0 | 21.3 | 25.6 | 17 | 9 |
1997 | 32.3 | 1.6 | 21.5 | 25.5 | 12 | 5 |
1998 | 31.4 | 1.6 | 22.1 | 26.2 | 36 | 10 |
1999 | 26.2 | 2.4 | 21.8 | 26.2 | 17 | 6 |
2000 | 28.3 | 2.6 | 21.5 | 25.5 | 22 | 10 |
2001 | 27.2 | 2.7 | 21.8 | 25.8 | 16 | 9 |
2002 | 26.0 | 2.4 | 22.1 | 26.0 | 17 | 10 |
2003 | 32.7 | 4.9 | 21.9 | 25.7 | 20 | 14 |
2004 | 31.9 | 2.6 | 21.7 | 25.6 | 19 | 6 |
2005 | 28.9 | 1.6 | 21.4 | 25.4 | 26 | 12 |
2006 | 28.9 | 1.5 | 21.7 | 25.8 | 15 | 3 |
2007 | 27.1 | 1.7 | 21.7 | 26.4 | 23 | 25 |
2008 | 27.8 | 2.5 | 21.1 | 25.8 | 15 | 15 |
2009 | 27.0 | 1.8 | 21.6 | 26.3 | 28 | 30 |
2010 | 27.7 | 1.4 | 21.2 | 25.8 | 24 | 13 |
2011 | 24.0 | 1.9 | 21.0 | 25.8 | 21 | 19 |
2012 | 23.9 | 1.8 | 21.6 | 25.8 | 23 | 21 |
2013 | 22.3 | 1.7 | 21.4 | 25.9 | 10 | 17 |
2014 | 22.7 | 2.4 | 21.5 | 26.0 | 34 | 33 |
Trend | Decrease by 0.41 per year (p < 0.001) | Decrease by 0.08 per year (p < 0.001) | Increase by 0.02 °C per year (p < 0.001) | Increase by 0.01 °C per year (p = 0.010) | Increase by 0.35 days per year (p = 0.001) | Increase by 0.20 days per year (p = 0.054) |
Meteorological Variables as Input | Best Transfer Function Model | SBC | p-Value of Ljung-Box Test (lag 18) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lag | Numerator | Denominator | |||
Monthly average of daily maximum ambient temperature ≤5th percentile (16.3 °C) | 0 | 2 | 0 | −3013.7 | 0.057 |
Monthly average of daily maximum ambient temperature ≤25th percentile (21.4 °C) | 0 | 1 | 1 | −3064.9 | 0.411 |
Monthly average of daily maximum ambient temperature ≥75th percentile (30.3 °C) | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3061.7 | 0.168 |
Monthly average of daily maximum ambient temperature ≥95th percentile (32.7 °C) | 1 | 1 | 1 | −3033.7 | 0.219 |
Monthly average of daily minimum ambient temperature ≤25th percentile (17.2 °C) | 1 | 1 | 1 | −3062.0 | 0.541 |
Monthly average of daily minimum ambient temperature ≥75th percentile (25.7 °C) | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3060.4 | 0.134 |
Meteorological Variables as Input | Best Transfer Function Model | SBC | p-Value of Ljung-Box Test (lag 18) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lag | Numerator | Denominator | |||
Monthly average of daily maximum ambient temperature ≤5th percentile (16.3 °C) | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3991.7 | 0.126 |
Monthly average of daily maximum ambient temperature ≤25th percentile (21.4 °C) | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3993.0 | 0.141 |
Monthly average of daily maximum ambient temperature ≥75th percentile (30.3 °C) | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3992.3 | 0.119 |
Monthly average of daily maximum ambient temperature ≥95th percentile (32.7 °C) | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3994.4 | 0.087 |
Monthly average of daily minimum ambient temperature ≤5th percentile (12.1 °C) | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3991.3 | 0.120 |
Monthly average of daily minimum ambient temperature ≤25th percentile (17.2 °C) | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3992.6 | 0.153 |
Monthly average of daily minimum ambient temperature ≥75th percentile (25.7 °C) | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3993.9 | 0.101 |
Monthly average of daily minimum ambient temperature ≥95th percentile (27.9 °C) | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3992.9 | 0.089 |
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Year | ICD-Version | Suicide by Violent Methods | Suicide by Nonviolent Methods |
---|---|---|---|
1976−1978 | ICD-8 | 1953–1957 | 1950–1952 |
1979−2000 | ICD-9 | E953–E957 | E950–E952 |
2001−2009 | ICD-10 | X70–X82 | X60–X69 |
2010−2014 | ICD-10 (updated) | X70–X82 | X60–X69 |
Meteorological Variable | Best ARIMA Model | SBC | P-Value of Ljung-Box Test (Lag 18) |
---|---|---|---|
Monthly average of daily maximum ambient temperature | (0,0,1) × (0,1,1)12 | 1348.4 | 0.564 |
Monthly average of daily mean ambient temperature | (0,0,1) × (0,1,1)12 | 1280.9 | 0.492 |
Monthly average of daily minimum ambient temperature | (0,0,1) × (0,1,1)12 | 1325.6 | 0.297 |
Monthly average of diurnal ambient temperature range | (1,0,1) × ( 0,1,1)12 | 613.5 | 0.516 |
Monthly average of ambient temperature range within two days | (1,0,1) × (0,1,1)12 | 748.8 | 0.439 |
Monthly average of ambient temperature range within one week | (1,0,1) × (0,1,1)12 | 1299.5 | 0.134 |
Monthly average of daily mean dewpoint | (0,0,0) × (0,1,1)12 | 1630.5 | 0.317 |
Monthly average of daily mean amount of cloud | (0,0,0) × (0,1,1)12 | 3353.9 | 0.877 |
Adjusted monthly total number of sunshine hours | (0,0,0) × (0,1,1)12 | 4625.2 | 0.576 |
Adjusted monthly total rainfall | (0,0,0) × (0,1,1)12 | 5909.1 | 0.950 |
Adjusted monthly number of days with maximum ambient temperature ≥33 °C (defined by the Hong Kong Observatory as “very hot day”) | (0,0,1) × (0,1,1)12 | 1833.5 | 0.970 |
Adjusted monthly number of days with three consecutive days of maximum ambient temperature ≥33 °C | (0,0,1) × (0,1,1)12 | 1409.6 | 1.000 |
Adjusted monthly number of days with minimum ambient temperature ≥28 °C (defined by the Hong Kong Observatory as “hot night”) | (1,0,0) × (0,1,1)12 | 1923.8 | 0.994 |
Adjusted monthly number of days with three consecutive days with minimum ambient temperature ≥28 °C | (1,0,0) × (0,1,1)12 | 1420.9 | 0.983 |
Adjusted monthly number of days with Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals | (0,0,0) × (0,1,1)12 | 1844.7 | 0.959 |
Meteorological Variables as Input | Best Transfer Function Model | SBC | p-Value of Ljung-Box Test (Lag 18) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lag | Numerator | Denominator | |||
Monthly average of daily maximum ambient temperature | 0 | 1 | 1 | −3077.2 | 0.463 |
Monthly average of daily mean ambient temperature | 0 | 1 | 1 | −3078.1 | 0.448 |
Monthly average of daily minimum ambient temperature | 0 | 1 | 1 | −3078.7 | 0.437 |
Monthly average of ambient temperature range within one week | 2 | 0 | 1 | −3040.6 | 0.227 |
Monthly average of daily mean dewpoint | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3076.4 | 0.307 |
Monthly average of daily mean amount of cloud | 1 | 0 | 0 | −3049.0 | 0.215 |
Adjusted monthly total number of sunshine hours | 2 | 0 | 1 | −3037.4 | 0.399 |
Adjusted monthly total rainfall | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3052.9 | 0.233 |
Adjusted monthly number of days with maximum ambient temperature ≥ 33 °C | 1 | 1 | 1 | −3028.9 | 0.094 |
Adjusted monthly number of days with Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals | 0 | 1 | 1 | −3048.4 | 0.388 |
Meteorological Variable as Input | Best Transfer Function Model | SBC | p-Value of Ljung-Box Test (Lag 18) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lag | Numerator | Denominator | |||
Monthly average of daily maximum ambient temperature | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3993.5 | 0.132 |
Monthly average of daily mean ambient temperature | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3993.2 | 0.133 |
Monthly average of daily minimum ambient temperature | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3992.9 | 0.135 |
Monthly average of ambient temperature range within one week | 2 | 0 | 1 | −3965.1 | 0.281 |
Monthly average of daily mean dewpoint | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3993.1 | 0.145 |
Monthly average of daily mean amount of cloud | 2 | 0 | 0 | −3978.7 | 0.337 |
Adjusted monthly total number of sunshine hours | 1 | 1 | 0 | −3980.3 | 0.320 |
Adjusted monthly total rainfall | 0 | 0 | 1 | −3980.0 | 0.113 |
Adjusted monthly number of days with maximum ambient temperature ≥ 33 °C | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3992.3 | 0.094 |
Adjusted monthly number of days with three consecutive days of maximum ambient temperature ≥ 33 °C | 1 | 0 | 0 | −3984.1 | 0.142 |
Adjusted monthly number of days with minimum ambient temperature ≥ 28 °C | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3992.6 | 0.082 |
Adjusted monthly number of days with Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals | 0 | 0 | 1 | −3982.8 | 0.223 |
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Chau, P.H.; Yip, P.S.F.; Lau, E.H.Y.; Ip, Y.T.; Law, F.Y.W.; Ho, R.T.H.; Leung, A.Y.M.; Wong, J.Y.H.; Woo, J. Hot Weather and Suicide Deaths among Older Adults in Hong Kong, 1976–2014: A Retrospective Study. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 3449. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17103449
Chau PH, Yip PSF, Lau EHY, Ip YT, Law FYW, Ho RTH, Leung AYM, Wong JYH, Woo J. Hot Weather and Suicide Deaths among Older Adults in Hong Kong, 1976–2014: A Retrospective Study. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(10):3449. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17103449
Chicago/Turabian StyleChau, Pui Hing, Paul Siu Fai Yip, Eric Ho Yin Lau, Yee Ting Ip, Frances Yik Wa Law, Rainbow Tin Hung Ho, Angela Yee Man Leung, Janet Yuen Ha Wong, and Jean Woo. 2020. "Hot Weather and Suicide Deaths among Older Adults in Hong Kong, 1976–2014: A Retrospective Study" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 10: 3449. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17103449
APA StyleChau, P. H., Yip, P. S. F., Lau, E. H. Y., Ip, Y. T., Law, F. Y. W., Ho, R. T. H., Leung, A. Y. M., Wong, J. Y. H., & Woo, J. (2020). Hot Weather and Suicide Deaths among Older Adults in Hong Kong, 1976–2014: A Retrospective Study. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(10), 3449. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17103449