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Open AccessArticle

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Tuberculosis during Urbanization in the New Urban Area of Nanchang City, China, 2010–2018

by Shu Yang 1,†, Yuan Gao 2,†, Wei Luo 1, Longfu Liu 3, Yuanhua Lei 3 and Xiaoling Zhang 1,*
1
The Collaboration Unit for Field Epidemiology of State Key Laboratory, for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Jiangxi Provincial key Laboratory of Animal-origin and Vector-borne Diseases, Nanchang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330038, China
2
State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
3
XinJian Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330100, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16(22), 4395; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16224395
Received: 17 September 2019 / Revised: 2 November 2019 / Accepted: 5 November 2019 / Published: 11 November 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Environment and Health)
Background: Urbanization will play a key role in ending the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2030, but understanding the relationship between urbanization and the health threats posed by TB is incomplete. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal distribution of TB at the township level during urbanization in the new urban area of Nanchang. Methods: Seasonal-trend decomposition of time series analysis was used to explore the seasonal distribution and trend analysis. Global and local spatial autocorrelation statistics, and space–time scan statistics were performed to detect the spatiotemporal clusters of TB cases in the new urban area of Nanchang from 2010 to 2018. Results: A total of 3245 TB cases were reported in the study area from 2010 to 2018. Of all the TB cases, 68% occurred in individuals older than 40 years old, 73.2% were male cases, and 56.6% were farmers. The primary seasonal peak was in late spring (April), and a smaller peak was in early autumn (September). The results of local indicators of spatial association showed that Jiaoqiao town and Changleng town might be “High–High” clusters. The most likely spatiotemporal cluster was located in the southwest of the study area in 2010, which included five towns, and then shifted to the northeast gradually. Across 2010 to 2018, nine spatiotemporal clusters were identified. The most likely cluster was located at the northeast of the study area. The center of this area was in Nanji town with a circle radius of 43.74 kilometers. Conclusions: The spatial clusters of TB incidence shifted to the rural region and the fringe of the new urban area of Nanchang. Targeted management strategies for urban migrants in the process of urbanization should be strengthened. View Full-Text
Keywords: tuberculosis; spatiotemporal distribution; urbanization tuberculosis; spatiotemporal distribution; urbanization
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Yang, S.; Gao, Y.; Luo, W.; Liu, L.; Lei, Y.; Zhang, X. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Tuberculosis during Urbanization in the New Urban Area of Nanchang City, China, 2010–2018. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 4395.

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