Threshold Effects of PM2.5 Exposure on Particle-Related Mortality in China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Research Background
2.1. Energy Consumption and
2.2. and Mortality
2.3. The Relationship between and Mortality Rate
3. Methodology
3.1. Panel Regression Model
3.2. Panel Threshold Models
3.2.1. Theoretical Model
3.2.2. Empirical Model
3.3. Data Set
4. Results
4.1. Estimating the Environmental Impacts of Fossil Fuel Consumption
4.2. Estimating Multiple Threshold Effects of on Mortality
4.2.1. Testing for Multiple Thresholds
4.2.2. Estimated Effects of on Cause-Specific Mortality Rate
4.2.3. Two-stage Econometric Approach for Health Effects of Coal Consumption
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
6.1. Contribution of the Study
6.2. Implications of the Study
6.3. Limitations of the Study
6.4. Recommendations for Further Research
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables | Description | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Std. Dev. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
concentration ) | 27.26 | 26.96 | 51.91 | 2.17 | 11.71 | |
Coal_cons | coal consumption (10,000 tons) | 10,520.76 | 8559.73 | 37,327.89 | 332.23 | 7897.92 |
GasDie_cons | gasoline-diesel consumption (10,000 tons) | 682.03 | 568.77 | 2754.68 | 40.74 | 496.26 |
Paved_Rd | per capita area of paved road (sq.m) | 11.41 | 11.19 | 22.23 | 4.04 | 3.31 |
Temp | average temperature () | 14.47 | 15.1 | 25.4 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
Humid | relative humidity (%) | 64.24 | 66 | 83 | 44 | 9.41 |
Precp | precipitation (mm) | 867.63 | 765.6 | 2628.2 | 74.9 | 503.46 |
Observations | 203 |
Variables | Description | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Std. Dev. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
cardiovascular mortality rate (deaths per 100,000 persons) | 238.84 | 239.02 | 355.85 | 152.94 | 49.04 | |
respiratory mortality rate (deaths per 100,000 persons) | 114.39 | 104.42 | 226.05 | 55.73 | 43.25 | |
concentration () | 26.69 | 26.72 | 51.94 | 2.17 | 11.92 | |
concentration () | 40.86 | 41.30 | 73.00 | 11.90 | 13.69 | |
emission () | 76.30 | 63.35 | 200.30 | 0.10 | 48.16 | |
GRP | gross regional product (100 million yuan) | 8279.15 | 6438.74 | 35,696.71 | 229.04 | 7139.56 |
Observations | 210 |
Variables | Pooled OLS | FE Model | RE Model |
---|---|---|---|
Coefficients | |||
Constant | −1.345 (1.228) | −1.771 ** (0.829) | −1.923 ** (0.755) |
LnCoal_cons | 0.404 *** (0.0544) | 0.196 *** (0.056) | 0.233 *** (0.051) |
B08 | 0.126 * (0.0704) | 0.142 *** (0.0164) | 0.145 *** (0.016) |
LnGasDie_cons | 0.0168 (0.069) | 0.076 ** (0.038) | 0.0650 * (0.037) |
LnPaved_Rd | −0.158 (0.106) | −0.046 (0.038) | −0.056 (0.037) |
LnTemp | 0.689 *** (0.106) | 0.233 ** (0.110) | 0.241 ** (0.095) |
LnHumid | 0.244 (0.365) | 0.604 *** (0.159) | 0.581 *** (0.149) |
LnPrec | −0.260 ** (0.101) | −0.059 ** (0.027) | −0.061 ** (0.027) |
Adj R2 | 0.481 | 0.984 | 0.376 |
F test (Pooled vs. Fixed) | 216.96 *** | ||
LM test (Pooled vs. Random) | 540.24 *** | ||
Hausman Test (Random vs. Fixed) | 6.04 |
Threshold | ||
---|---|---|
Test for single threshold | ||
210.329 | 51.314 | |
p-value | 0.000 | 0.010 |
Critical values (10, 5, 1) | 29.720, 37.778, 49.981 | 27.013, 36.152, 45.191 |
Test for double threshold | ||
24.799 | 17.189 | |
p-value | 0.080 | 0.250 |
Critical values (10, 5, 1) | 23.274, 28.334, 34.176 | 23.340, 28.697, 36.832 |
Test for triple threshold | ||
142.326 | 21.743 | |
p-value | 0.000 | 0.013 |
Critical values (10, 5, 1) | 20.952, 27.461, 41.740 | 13.272, 16.893, 22.610 |
Threshold Estimates | Threshold | Estimates | 95% Confidence | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2.872 | [2.717, 2.872] | 17.67 | ||
3.073 | [3.074, 3.074] | 21.62 | ||
3.534 | [2.872, 3.610] | 34.27 | ||
Variable | Coefficient | Regime-dependent | ||
OLS S.E. | White S.E. | |||
17.67 | 0.031 | 0.043 | 0.060 | |
−0.003 | 0.020 | 0.013 | ||
0.196 ** | 0.073 | 0.090 | ||
21.62 > 17.67 | 0.806 *** | 0.245 | 0.198 | |
−0.270 *** | 0.078 | 0.064 | ||
−0.159 | 0.142 | 0.118 | ||
34.27 > 21.62 | 0.257 *** | 0.059 | 0.054 | |
0.054 * | 0.025 | 0.028 | ||
−0.162 *** | 0.045 | 0.042 | ||
> 34.27 | −0.003 | 0.070 | 0.062 | |
0.172 *** | 0.028 | 0.020 | ||
−0.034 | 0.043 | 0.038 | ||
Variable | Coefficient | Regime-independent | ||
OLS S.E. | White S.E. | |||
0.0378 ** | 0.016 | 0.017 |
Threshold Estimates | Threshold | Estimates | 95% Confidence | |
---|---|---|---|---|
r | 4.3836 | [4.3549, 4.3993] | 80.13 | |
Variable | Coefficient | Regime-independent | ||
OLS S.E. | White S.E. | t-statistic | ||
( 80.13) | 0.172 *** | 0.028 | 0.043 | 4.050 |
80.13) | 0.250 *** | 0.029 | 0.047 | 5.352 |
Ln | −0.032 | 0.019 | 0.035 | −0.904 |
Ln | 0.176 *** | 0.041 | 0.043 | 4.052 |
LnGRP | −0.188 *** | 0.019 | 0.025 | −7.585 |
Result of Stage 1 (Panel Data Model) | Result of Stage 2 (Panel Threshold Model) | Result of Two-Stage Approach | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Estimate effect of coal consumption on | Estimate effect of on cause-specific mortality | Estimate health effect of coal consumption | ||
0.233 *** | Estimated threshold regimes | Coefficient | Coefficient | |
Cardiovascular mortality | 21.62 > 17.67 | 0.806 *** | 0.188 | |
34.27 > 21.62 | 0.257 *** | 0.060 | ||
Respiratory mortality | 80.13 (tons) | 0.172 *** | 0.040 | |
80.13 (tons) | 0.250 *** | 0.058 |
Study Approach | Regions [Author] | Pollutant | Methodology (Time Period) | Health Outcomes | Estimated Coef. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Short-term Studies | Shanghai, China [19] | Time-series | Cardiovascular mortality | 0.41 [0.00, 0.82] | |
Respiratory mortality | 0.95 [0.17, 1.73] | ||||
Shenyang, China [18] | Time-stratified case-crossover | Cardiovascular mortality | 0.53 [0.09, 0.97] | ||
Respiratory mortality | 0.97 [0.01, 1.94] | ||||
Quangzhou, China [17] | Time-stratified case-crossover | Cardiovascular mortality | 1.22 [0.63, 1.68] | ||
Respiratory mortality | 0.97 [0.16, 1.79] | ||||
This study | China | Panel Threshold Model | Cardiovascular mortality | 30.18 (21.62 > 17.67) | |
9.63 (34.27 > 21.62) | |||||
Respiratory mortality | 6.45 ( 80.13) | ||||
9.35 ( > 80.13) | |||||
Long-term Studies | Shenyang, China [39] | Retrospective cohort study (1998–2009) | Cardiovascular mortality | 55 [51, 60] | |
Shenyang, China [40] | Retrospective cohort (1998–2009) | Respiratory mortality | 67 [60, 74] | ||
US metropolitan areas [56] | Cohort study (1979–1983) | Cardiopulmonary mortality | 6 [2, 10] | ||
Netherlands [57] | Cohort study (1987–1996) | Respiratory mortality | 7 [−25, 52] | ||
US metropolitan areas [56] | Cohort study (1979–1983) | Cardiopulmonary mortality | 6 [2, 10] | ||
Canada [24] | Cohort study (1991–2001) | Cardiovascular mortality | 31 [27, 35] |
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Tran, B.-L.; Chang, C.-C.; Hsu, C.-S.; Chen, C.-C.; Tseng, W.-C.; Hsu, S.-H. Threshold Effects of PM2.5 Exposure on Particle-Related Mortality in China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 3549. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16193549
Tran B-L, Chang C-C, Hsu C-S, Chen C-C, Tseng W-C, Hsu S-H. Threshold Effects of PM2.5 Exposure on Particle-Related Mortality in China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2019; 16(19):3549. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16193549
Chicago/Turabian StyleTran, Bao-Linh, Ching-Cheng Chang, Chia-Sheng Hsu, Chi-Chung Chen, Wei-Chun Tseng, and Shih-Hsun Hsu. 2019. "Threshold Effects of PM2.5 Exposure on Particle-Related Mortality in China" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, no. 19: 3549. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16193549