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Article

Predictive Modeling of Suitable Habitats for Cinnamomum Camphora (L.) Presl Using Maxent Model under Climate Change in China

1
College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
2
Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
3
College of Water Conservancy and Ecological Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, China
4
College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16(17), 3185; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16173185
Received: 24 July 2019 / Revised: 27 August 2019 / Accepted: 29 August 2019 / Published: 31 August 2019
Rapid changes in global climate exert tremendous pressure on forest ecosystems. Cinnamomum camphora (L.) Presl is a multi-functional tree species, and its distribution and growth are also affected by climate warming. In order to realize its economic value and ecological function, it is necessary to explore the impact of climate change on its suitable habitats under different scenarios. In this experiment, 181 geographical distribution data were collected, and the MaxEnt algorithm was used to predict the distribution of suitable habitats. To complete the simulation, we selected two greenhouse gas release scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and also three future time periods, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s. The importance of environmental variables for modeling was evaluated by jackknife test. Our study found that accumulated temperature played a key role in the distribution of camphor trees. With the change of climate, the area of suitable range will increase and continue to move to the northwest of China. These findings could provide guidance for the plantation establishment and resource protection of camphor in China. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; Cinnamomum camphora (L.) Presl; distribution of habitats; MaxEnt; jackknife test climate change; Cinnamomum camphora (L.) Presl; distribution of habitats; MaxEnt; jackknife test
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MDPI and ACS Style

Zhang, L.; Jing, Z.; Li, Z.; Liu, Y.; Fang, S. Predictive Modeling of Suitable Habitats for Cinnamomum Camphora (L.) Presl Using Maxent Model under Climate Change in China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 3185. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16173185

AMA Style

Zhang L, Jing Z, Li Z, Liu Y, Fang S. Predictive Modeling of Suitable Habitats for Cinnamomum Camphora (L.) Presl Using Maxent Model under Climate Change in China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2019; 16(17):3185. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16173185

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zhang, Lei, Zhinong Jing, Zuyao Li, Yang Liu, and Shengzuo Fang. 2019. "Predictive Modeling of Suitable Habitats for Cinnamomum Camphora (L.) Presl Using Maxent Model under Climate Change in China" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, no. 17: 3185. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16173185

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