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Risk Assessment in Urban Large-Scale Public Spaces Using Dempster-Shafer Theory: An Empirical Study in Ningbo, China

1
School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Ningbo University of Technology, Ningbo 315211, China
2
College of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200082, China
3
Intelligent Transport System (ITS) R & D Center, Shanghai Urban Construction Design and Research Institute (Group) Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200082, China
4
School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China
5
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16(16), 2942; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16162942 (registering DOI)
Received: 12 July 2019 / Revised: 13 August 2019 / Accepted: 14 August 2019 / Published: 16 August 2019
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Abstract

Urban Large-scale Public Spaces (ULPS) are important areas of urban culture and economic development, which are also places of the potential safety hazard. ULPS safety assessment has played a crucial role in the theory and practice of urban sustainable development. The primary objective of this study is to explore the interaction between ULPS safety risk and its influencing factors. In the first stage, an index sensitivity analysis method was applied to calculate and identify the safety risk assessment index system. Next, a Delphi method and information entropy method were also applied to collect and calculate the weight of risk assessment indicators. In the second stage, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) method with evidence fusion technique was utilized to analyze the interaction between the ULPS safety risk level and the multiple-index variables, measured by four observed performance indicators, i.e., environmental factor, human factor, equipment factor, and management factor. Finally, an empirical study of DST approach for ULPS safety performance analysis was presented. View Full-Text
Keywords: traffic safety; risk assessment; Dempster-Shafer theory; normal cloud model; index system; large-scale public spaces traffic safety; risk assessment; Dempster-Shafer theory; normal cloud model; index system; large-scale public spaces
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Zhou, J.; Mao, X.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, M.; Dong, S. Risk Assessment in Urban Large-Scale Public Spaces Using Dempster-Shafer Theory: An Empirical Study in Ningbo, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2942.

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