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Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research

ClimAdapt, LLC, 424 Tyndall Street, Los Altos, CA 94022, USA
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11(1), 30-46;
Received: 18 October 2013 / Revised: 4 December 2013 / Accepted: 4 December 2013 / Published: 19 December 2013
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change and Human Health)
PDF [231 KB, uploaded 19 June 2014]


The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; scenarios; health; adaptation; mitigation climate change; scenarios; health; adaptation; mitigation

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0).

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Ebi, K.L. Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11, 30-46.

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