Elucidating the Disrupted Seasonal Cycle of Eodiaptomus japonicus (Calanoida, Copepoda) in Lake Biwa: Insights from an Individual-Based Model

The seasonal fluctuations of the copepod Eodiaptomus japonicus, which dominates the zooplankton community of Lake Biwa, have been disrupted several times over the past 45 years. The aim of this study was to clarify the primary environmental factor that caused the disrupted seasonal cycle in population density of E. japonicus. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the disruption in their seasonal cycle was due to the impacts of water temperature, food conditions, and predator pressure, using an individual-based model (IBM). Based on the experimental data from the literature, we described the growth and reproduction of E. japonicus using temperature- and food-dependent functions. Previously, the developmental time of this species was expressed using Bělehrádek’s equation. In this study, we applied the Kontodimas equation, which successfully reproduced the effects of food scarcity at higher temperatures. Additionally, the influence of predators was incorporated into the survival rate of adult individuals. The long-term data set of Lake Biwa was input into the developed model to simulate the population fluctuations during the disruption period (1975–1979) and stable period (1995–1999) of their seasonal cycle. The combination of environmental data to be input was (1) water temperature, food availability, and predators; (2) water temperature and food availability; and (3) water temperature and predators. Disruptions in the seasonal cycle of the population were only observed in scenario (1) during the disruption period simulation, suggesting that the disrupted seasonal cycle of this species in Lake Biwa may have been caused by the effects of both food condition and predators. The results of simulation scenarios (2) and (3) indicated that predators have a stronger impact on the population than food availability. This time, we used common and simple indicators to describe food conditions and predators, but the model can be improved to be more complex and accurate as more data become available. Such models are important tools for understanding the relationship between environmental factors and the dynamics of diaptomid copepod populations.