Utilizing Ecological Modeling to Follow the Potential Spread of Honey Bee Pest (Megaselia scalaris) from Nearby Countries towards Saudi Arabia under Climate Change Conditions

The current challenge for the development of beekeeping is the possibility of bee pests invading new areas. It is well known that each geographical range has its unique pest species. The fly Megaselia scalaris is a facultative parasitoid to honey bees. This fly has been recorded in various countries while information about it in Saudi Arabia is still seldom. The main objective of this study was to follow the spread of this fly from North Africa/South Europe towards Gulf countries utilizing ecological modeling. Maxent, as a specialist software in analyzing species distribution, was used in combination of five environmental factors. The analysis was performed to cover current and future conditions (2050). The outputs of the model were analyzed in regard to their performance and distribution of M. scalaris in the study area. The top factor contributing to the model was the annual mean temperature with a percentage of 56.3. The model maps emphasized the possible occurrence of this pest in the northern parts of Saudi Arabia. The wide establishment and distribution towards the central and southern parts of Saudi Arabia were not supported. Screening apiaries located in Northern areas in Saudi Arabia for the presence of this pest using specific bait traps could be a good recommendation from this study.