A Simple Model of the Rise and Fall of Civilizations
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
3. Results
4. Discussion and Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Parameter | Description | Analogical Examples |
---|---|---|
Invention rate | Novel inventions, organizations, or settlements | |
m | Memory | Oral tradition, cultural memory, written records |
Affinity | Trade networks, geographic distance, social distance | |
N | Agents | Population size or number of organizations |
Statistic | log (Median HHI) | log (Turnover) |
---|---|---|
Intercept | −3.281 | 0.022 |
Standard error | 0.028 | 0.045 |
Coeff. on (s.e.) | −0.471 (0.005) | 0.393 (0.008) |
Standard error | 0.005 | 0.008 |
Coeff. on (s.e.) | −0.406 (0.009) | −0.230 (0.015) |
0.979 | 0.922 | |
Residual std. error | 0.093 | 0.148 |
m | |||
---|---|---|---|
1000 | −0.077 | −0.225 | 0.960 |
2000 | −0.253 | −0.354 | 0.974 |
3000 | −0.424 | −0.395 | 0.979 |
3500 | −0.455 | −0.405 | 0.980 |
4000 | −0.468 | −0.405 | 0.980 |
5000 | −0.471 | −0.407 | 0.979 |
m | |||
---|---|---|---|
1000 | 0.084 | 0.312 | 0.966 |
2000 | 0.233 | −0.324 | 0.968 |
3000 | 0.353 | −0.266 | 0.949 |
3500 | 0.378 | −0.245 | 0.934 |
4000 | 0.389 | −0.236 | 0.927 |
5000 | 0.392 | −0.231 | 0.923 |
m | |||
---|---|---|---|
1000 | −0.148 | −0.048 | 0.888 |
2000 | −0.225 | −0.132 | 0.918 |
3000 | −0.088 | −0.168 | 0.643 |
3500 | −0.029 | −0.050 | 0.402 |
4000 | −0.008 | −0.017 | 0.105 |
5000 | n.s. | n.s. | ∼0 |
Estimate | Std. Error | t Value | Pr(>|t|) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Intercept | 0.89 | 0.0022 | 397.3 | <0.0001 |
−3.76 | 0.024 | −158.5 | <0.0001 | |
m | −0.0202 | 0.0002 | −94.6 | <0.0001 |
0.00000215 | 0.00000003 | 74.0 | <0.0001 |
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Nyman, R.; Ormerod, P.; Bentley, R.A. A Simple Model of the Rise and Fall of Civilizations. Entropy 2023, 25, 1298. https://doi.org/10.3390/e25091298
Nyman R, Ormerod P, Bentley RA. A Simple Model of the Rise and Fall of Civilizations. Entropy. 2023; 25(9):1298. https://doi.org/10.3390/e25091298
Chicago/Turabian StyleNyman, Rickard, Paul Ormerod, and R. Alexander Bentley. 2023. "A Simple Model of the Rise and Fall of Civilizations" Entropy 25, no. 9: 1298. https://doi.org/10.3390/e25091298
APA StyleNyman, R., Ormerod, P., & Bentley, R. A. (2023). A Simple Model of the Rise and Fall of Civilizations. Entropy, 25(9), 1298. https://doi.org/10.3390/e25091298