Search Results (8)

Tornadoes pose growing threats to both communities and the built environment, yet few studies have quantified how spatial characteristics of the built environment interact with social and economic factors while influencing tornado impacts. This paper introduces an integrated metric that combines tornado risk and exposure to evaluate localized disaster impact. Focusing on Florida’s Panhandle, we examine how housing density and affordability, network connectivity, and urban form efficiency, together with demographic and socioeconomic attributes, shape tornado impacts at the U.S. census block group (CBG) level. To address spatial autocorrelation and non-stationarity, five statistical models were compared, including both global and local spatial regressions. The findings indicate that multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) most effectively captures the spatial heterogeneity of tornado impacts. Built-environment and affordability factors show clear spatial heterogeneity— smart location indexand housing cost burden (h_ami) are positively associated with tornado impact in CBGs near Tallahassee and parts of Pensacola—suggesting amplified impacts in location-efficient urban areas where exposure is concentrated and affordability stress may limit preparedness and recovery. In contrast, network density is negatively associated with the impact of key clusters, consistent with the idea that denser, more redundant road networks can reduce canopy-weighted disruption by providing alternative routes for emergency access and restoration. Overall, these findings can inform our understanding of how the built environment influences tornado exposure, offering critical insights for planners and policymakers seeking to strengthen communities against tornadoes. Full article

Background: In forensic ballistics, identifying ammunition types on physical evidence is critical, particularly when metallic residues are minimal. This study comparatively analyzes the elemental signatures deposited by two common projectiles—Full Metal Jacket (FMJ) (Cu/Zn jacket) and Lead Round Nose (LRN) (exposed Pb core)—on complex targets, including pig bone/tissue and mango wood. Methods: Using a semi-automatic handgun at an intermediate range of 5.0 m, residues were examined through high-resolution benchtop Micro-XRF (M4 Tornado) for micro-spatial analysis and Portable XRF (Elio) for rapid field characterization. Additionally, fresh pork leg samples were subjected to a 3-month environmental degradation period to assess trace persistence. Results: Observations indicated that LRN projectiles exhibit markedly elevated Lead (Pb) concentrations along the wound track in bone, hence confirming Pb as a reliable indicator for unjacketed ammunition; specifically, the median Pb concentrations at bullet wiping were 10.39 wt% for M4 and 7.34 wt% for Elio. Conversely, FMJ traces remain strictly confined to the surface bullet wipe area, with median concentrations of Pb, Cu, and Zn being 2.21 wt%, 0.24 wt%, and 0.59 wt% via M4, respectively. Statistical analysis showed a strong correlation for high-concentration elements on tissue, but significantly greater variance on wooden surfaces where FMJ traces exhibited a very weak negative correlation (r = −0.2774) due to minimal and irregular metal transfer. Taphonomic evaluation revealed that the Pb signature from LRN is exceptionally stable (r ≈ 0.9999) even after decomposition, while FMJ signatures are highly sensitive to environmental exposure. Conclusions: This research underscores the necessity of high-sensitivity Micro-XRF (M4) for definitive ammunition verification, providing a refined analytical framework for shooting incident reconstruction even involving degraded remains or complex environmental scenes. Full article

The rapid growth of distributed photovoltaic (PV) resources is transforming distribution networks into active systems with highly variable net loads, while the rising frequency and severity of extreme weather events is increasing outage risk and restoration challenges. In this context, utilities require reliability assessment tools that jointly represent operational variability and climate-driven stressors beyond stationary assumptions. This paper presents a weather-aware probabilistic framework to quantify the reliability of active distribution networks with high PV penetration. The approach synthesizes realistic residential demand and PV time series at 15-min resolution, models extreme weather as a low-probability/high-impact escalation of component failure rates and restoration uncertainty, and computes IEEE Std 1366–2022 indices (SAIFI, SAIDI, ENS) through Monte Carlo simulation. The methodology is validated on a modified IEEE 33-bus feeder with parameter values representative of urban/suburban overhead networks. Compared with classical reliability modeling, the proposed framework captures in a unified pipeline the joint effects of load/PV stochasticity, weather-dependent failure escalation, and repair-time dispersion, providing a consistent statistical interpretation supported by kernel density estimation and convergence diagnostics. The results show that (i) extreme weather shifts the distributions of SAIFI, SAIDI and ENS to the right and thickens upper tails (higher exceedance probabilities); (ii) PV penetration yields a non-monotonic response with measurable improvements up to intermediate levels and saturation/partial degradation at very high penetrations; and (iii) compound risk is nonlinear, as the mean ENS surface over $(r_{\mathrm{PV}},P_{\mathrm{ext}})$ exhibits a valley at moderate PV and a ridge for large storm probability. A tornado analysis identifies the base failure rate, storm escalation factor and storm exposure as dominant drivers, in line with resilience literature. Overall, the framework provides an auditable, scenario-based tool to co-design DER hosting and resilience investments. Full article

Windborne debris generated during tornadoes and hurricanes plays a critical role in building damage. This damage occurs either through direct impact on structural and nonstructural components or indirectly by increasing internal pressure when debris penetrates openings (e.g., windows and doors) or creates new ones. These breaches can significantly raise internal pressure, even at lower wind speeds compared to debris-free conditions. Current provisions in ASCE 7, the nationally adopted standard for wind load calculations in the United States, account for factors such as building geometry, location, and exposure category. However, they do not consider the effects of windborne debris on internal pressure coefficients. This study proposes an enhancement to ASCE 7 by incorporating debris effects through the use of a more conservative enclosure classification. Real-world damage observations from three tornado-impacted residential buildings are presented, followed by a failure mechanism analysis, supporting analytical fragility data, and numerical simulations of debris effects on building damage. The findings suggest that treating buildings as Partially Enclosed under ASCE 7 can more accurately reflect debris-induced internal pressures and improve building resilience under extreme wind events. Full article

Although the literature provides valuable insight into tornado vulnerability and resilience, there are still research gaps in assessing tornadoes’ impact on communities and transportation infrastructure, especially in the wake of the rapidly changing frequency and strength of tornadoes due to climate change. In this study, we first investigated the relationship between tornado exposure and demographic-, socioeconomic-, and transportation-related factors in our study area, the state of Kentucky. Tornado exposures for each U.S. census block group (CBG) were calculated by utilizing spatial analysis methods such as kernel density estimation and zonal statistics. Tornadoes between 1950 and 2022 were utilized to calculate tornado density values as a surrogate variable for tornado exposure. Since tornado density varies over space, a multiscale geographically weighted regression model was employed to consider spatial heterogeneity over the study region rather than using global regression such as ordinary least squares (OLS). The findings indicated that tornado density varied over the study area. The southwest portion of Kentucky and Jefferson County, which has low residential density, showed high levels of tornado exposure. In addition, relationships between the selected factors and tornado exposure also changed over space. For example, transportation costs as a percentage of income for the regional typical household was found to be strongly associated with tornado exposure in southwest Kentucky, whereas areas close to Jefferson County indicated an opposite association. The second part of this study involves the quantification of the tornado impact on roadways by using two different methods, and results were mapped. Although in both methods the same regions were found to be impacted, the second method highlighted the central CBGs rather than the peripheries. Information gathered by such an investigation can assist authorities in identifying vulnerable regions from both transportation network and community perspectives. From tornado debris handling to community preparedness, this type of work has the potential to inform sustainability-focused plans and policies in the state of Kentucky. Full article

Tornadoes are one of the most prevalent natural hazards in the United States, yet they have been underrepresented in the disaster mental health comprehensive literature. In the current study, we systematically reviewed available scientific evidence within published research journals on tornadoes and mental health from 1994 to 2021. The electronic search strategy identified 384 potentially relevant articles. Of the 384 articles, 29 articles met the inclusion criteria, representing 27,534 participants. Four broad areas were identified: (i) Mental health impacts of tornadoes; (ii) Risk factors; (iii) Protective factors; and (iv) Mental health interventions. Overall, results showed adverse mental health symptoms (e.g., post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety) in both adult and pediatric populations. A number of risk factors were found to contribute to negative mental health, including demographics, tornado exposure, post-tornado stressors, and prior exposure to trauma. Protective factors found to contribute to positive outcomes included having access to physical, social, and psychological resources. Together, these findings can serve as an important resource for future mental health services in communities experiencing tornadoes. Full article

Prior research has found that Black and Latinx communities in the U.S. face significant disparities that impact both preparedness for severe weather events and the support received after a disaster has occurred. In the current study, we examined key risk and protective factors that impacted mental health among 221 Black and Latinx adult respondents exposed to the 2–3 March 2020 nocturnal tornado outbreak in the U.S. state of Tennessee. Key factors that adversely affected mental health among participants were encountering barriers for receiving tornado warning alerts and tornado-related exposure. Key factors that served a protective mechanism against adverse mental health included having access to physical resources, supportive relationships, and adaptive coping skills. These findings may assist National Weather Service (NWS) personnel, emergency managers, and mental health providers with the development of policies and practices to address barriers and promote protective strategies for future nocturnal tornado events. Full article

Genes, environmental factors, and their interplay affect posttrauma symptoms. Although environmental predictors of the longitudinal course of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms are documented, there remains a need to incorporate genetic risk into these models, especially in youth who are underrepresented in genetic studies. In an epidemiologic sample tornado-exposed adolescents (n = 707, 51% female, M_age = 14.54 years), trajectories of PTSD symptoms were examined at baseline and at 4-months and 12-months following baseline. This study aimed to determine if rare genetic variation in genes previously found in the sample to be related to PTSD diagnosis at baseline (MPHOSPH9, LGALS13, SLC2A2), environmental factors (disaster severity, social support), or their interplay were associated with symptom trajectories. A series of mixed effects models were conducted. Symptoms decreased over the three time points. Elevated tornado severity was associated with elevated baseline symptoms. Elevated recreational support was associated with lower baseline symptoms and attenuated improvement over time. Greater LGLAS13 variants attenuated symptom improvement over time. An interaction between MPHOSPH9 variants and tornado severity was associated with elevated baseline symptoms, but not change over time. Findings suggest the importance of rare genetic variation and environmental factors on the longitudinal course of PTSD symptoms following natural disaster trauma exposure. Full article