Search Results (11)

Forward-looking metrics of uncertainty based on options-implied information should be highly predictive of equity market returns in accordance with asset pricing theory. Empirically, however, the ability of the VIX, for example, to predict returns is statistically weak. In contrast to other studies that typically analyze a short time-series of option prices, I make use of a ‘VIX-type’ but a text-based measure of uncertainty starting in 1890, which is constructed using the titles and abstracts of front-page articles of the Wall Street Journal. I hypothesize that uncertainty timing might increase Sharpe ratios because changes in uncertainty are not necessarily correlated with changes in equity risk and, therefore, not offset by proportional changes in expected returns. Using a major US equity portfolio, I propose a dynamic trading strategy and show that lagged news-based uncertainty explains future excess returns on the market portfolio at the short horizon. While policy- and war-related concerns mainly drive these predictability results, stock market-related news has no predictive power. A managed equity portfolio that takes more risk when news-based uncertainty is high generates an annualized equity risk-adjusted alpha of 5.33% with an appraisal ratio of 0.46. Managing news-based uncertainty contrasts with conventional investment knowledge because the strategy takes relatively less risks in recessions, which rules out typical risk-based explanations. Interestingly, I find that the uncertainty around governmental policy is lower and, by taking less risk, it performs better during periods when the Republicans control the senate. I conclude that my text-based measure is a plausible proxy for investor policy uncertainty and performs better in terms of predictability compared to other options-based measures. Full article

Background: Deployment-related neurotoxicant exposures are implicated in the etiology of Gulf War illness (GWI), the multisymptom condition associated with military service in the 1990–1991 Gulf War (GW). A Q/R polymorphism at position 192 of the paraoxonase (PON)-1 enzyme produce PON1₁₉₂ variants with different capacities for neutralizing specific chemicals, including certain acetylcholinesterase inhibitors. Methods: We evaluated PON1₁₉₂ status and GW exposures in 295 GWI cases and 103 GW veteran controls. Multivariable logistic regression determined independent associations of GWI with GW exposures overall and in PON1₁₉₂ subgroups. Exact logistic regression explored effects of exposure combinations in PON1₁₉₂ subgroups. Results: Hearing chemical alarms (proxy for possible nerve agent exposure) was associated with GWI only among RR status veterans (OR = 8.60, p = 0.014). Deployment-related skin pesticide use was associated with GWI only among QQ (OR = 3.30, p = 0.010) and QR (OR = 4.22, p < 0.001) status veterans. Exploratory assessments indicated that chemical alarms were associated with GWI in the subgroup of RR status veterans who took pyridostigmine bromide (PB) (exact OR = 19.02, p = 0.009) but not RR veterans who did not take PB (exact OR = 0.97, p = 1.00). Similarly, skin pesticide use was associated with GWI among QQ status veterans who took PB (exact OR = 6.34, p = 0.001) but not QQ veterans who did not take PB (exact OR = 0.59, p = 0.782). Conclusion: Study results suggest a complex pattern of PON1₁₉₂ exposures and exposure–exposure interactions in the development of GWI. Full article

The recent COVID-19 pandemic effectively concretized the vitality of health expenditure and the economic-growth nexus, and the threat of new pandemics make re-examining this relationship a necessity. Consequently, this paper focuses on this nexus for developed OECD countries, paying particular attention to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The use of stock indices as proxy variables for health expenditure and economic growth enabled the examination of this nexus by using high-frequency data and financial econometric techniques, specifically via rolling correlation and bivariate GARCH analyses. The data span 1170 observations between 15 May 2018 and 11 November 2022. Since the research period overlaps with the outbreak of Ukraine–Russia war, additional insights are obtained regarding the effects of the war as well. It was found that an increase in health expenditure leads to a delayed increase in economic growth even in the short term, and this relationship mainly develops during crises such as epidemics, wars, supply chain breakdowns, etc., for developed OECD countries. Given the aging population of developed countries, which will probably deteriorate the health status of those countries in the near future, the increasing political tensions around the globe and the considerations of a global recession highlight the importance and the inevitability of investments in health capital for developed countries as well. Full article

In a mass fatality incident (MFI), effective preservation of tissue samples is the cornerstone for downstream DNA-based identification of victims. This is commonly achieved through freezing of tissue samples excised from bodies/fragmented remains which may be buried or stored in refrigerated containers. This may, however, not be possible depending on the nature of the MFI; in particular, during armed conflict/war where extended periods of electrical outages would be expected. The present study compared the effectiveness of long-term tissue preservation at ambient temperatures using two commercial products (non-iodized kitchen salt and a 40% alcoholic beverage) against a chemical preservative (Allprotect™ Tissue Reagent (Qiagen, Germantown, MD, USA)) and freezing at −20 °C. Bovine muscle tissue, used as a proxy for human tissue, was treated with the four preservation methods and sampled at six different time-points over a 24-month period. All four methods were able to preserve the bovine tissue, generally yielding STR-PCR (Short Tandem Repeat-Polymerase Chain Reaction) amplicons > 200 bp in size even at the end of 24 months. Gel electrophoresis, however, indicated that salt was more effective in preserving DNA integrity with high-molecular-weight DNA clearly visible as compared to the low-molecular-weight DNA smears observed in the other methods. This study also proposes a simple process for the rapid and low-cost preservation of tissue samples for long-term storage at ambient temperatures in support of post-incident victim identification efforts. Full article

When Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized Idlib, it alarmed and disturbed international observers. However, HTS is only one among a number of radical Islamist groups in a part of Syria that has become an incubator of Jihadism. As the last remaining redoubt of the armed opposition in the country, the governorate has become an international concern. Events have now reached an impasse, and the time is thus right for a reappraisal that steps back and considers contemporary developments in the wider context of ongoing events in the governorate. This article also places local developments in a wider context in another sense by considering how regional and international interventions contributed to HTS’s rise in the Idlib governorate. This is particularly important as external interventions by Turkey, Iran, Russia and the US have not only failed to establish a sustainable basis for peace by addressing the root causes of violence but have actually inflamed hostilities and exacerbated the various challenges involved in ending the conflict, which has at times taken on the appearance of a proxy war. In seeking to better theorise externalisation, this article draws on peacebuilding theory. This historical and political contextualisation seeks to contribute to an improved understanding of HTS’s rise and the means through which it can be most effectively combated in the future. Full article

Deglobalization, as opposed to the term globalization, appears in the world order due to local solutions to problems and border controls, ignoring the principles of treaties, trade wars, and the expansion of regionalism. In addition, slowbalization helps shrink the global flow of trade, information, and societal and cultural exchange dynamism. However, this scary global order, as triggered by deglobalization and slowbalization, significantly impacts the income factors of allied nations. Against this background, we aim to investigate whether deglobalization and slowbalization proxied by the influencing magnitudes of globalization dimensions (e.g., globalization de facto and de jure, internet diffusions, and trade openness) impact the income inequality of the 12 post-Soviet countries, considering the panel data during 1991–2019. To this end, we apply the quantiles via moments approach to investigate the time-varying connectedness between variables that have country and data-centric heterogeneities. Our findings depict that deglobalization is futile in affecting the post-Soviet countries’ income dynamics, as globalization negatively affects income inequality in diverse quantiles. Specifically, globalization de facto (globalized policy-implementation spectrum) and internet diffusions have a significantly negative influence on reducing income inequality from low to medium quantiles (q.25–q.75). Globalization de jure (globalized policy-decision spectrum) and trade openness are statistically insignificant in entire quantiles (q.25–q.95), implying the likely existence of slowbalization. Finally, government expenditures and governance quality are monotonically negative in reducing income inequality at all quantiles (q.25–q.95). Therefore, policy suggestions enclose galvanizing globalization potentials in curbing income inequality to keep away the distressful phases of deglobalization and slowbalization. Full article

A proxy war between a coalition of countries, BLUE, and a country, RED, is considered. RED wants to increase the size of the RED territory. BLUE wants to involve more regions in trade and other types of cooperation. GREEN is a small and independent nation that wants to become a member of BLUE. RED attacks GREEN and tries to invade. BLUE decides to give optimal arms support to GREEN. This support can help GREEN in the war against RED and simultaneously can reduce the military power of RED, which is valuable to BLUE also outside this proxy war, since RED may confront BLUE also in other regions. The optimal control problem of dynamic arms support, from the BLUE perspective, is defined in general form. From the BLUE perspective, there is an optimal position of the front. This position is a function of the weights in the objective function and all other parameters. Optimal control theory is used to determine the optimal dynamic BLUE strategy, conditional on a RED strategy, which is observed by BLUE military intelligence. The optimal arms support strategy for BLUE is to initially send a large volume of arms support to GREEN, to rapidly move the front to the optimal position. Then, the support should be almost constant during most of the war, keeping the war front location stationary. In the final part of the conflict, when RED will have almost no military resources left and tries to retire from the GREEN territory, BLUE should strongly increase the arms support and make sure that GREEN rapidly can regain the complete territory and end the war. Full article

While many social scientists view heart disease as the outcome of current conditions, this cannot fully explain the significant geographic disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates in the USA. The developmental origins hypothesis proposes that CVD vulnerability is created by poor conditions in utero that underbuilds major organs relative to those needed to process lush nutrition later in life. The American South underwent an economic transformation from persistent poverty to rapid economic growth in the post-World War II era. We use state-level data on income growth and current conditions to explain variation in CVD mortality rates in 2010–2011. Our proxy for unbalanced physical growth, the ratio of median household income in 1980 to that in 1950, has a large systematic influence on CVD mortality, an impact that increases dramatically with age. The income ratio combined with smoking, obesity, healthcare access, and education explain more than 70% of the variance in CVD mortality rates. Full article

It has been argued recently that Uganda’s sexual law should be interpreted as a part of gender power struggles, rather than in the original neo-colonial interpretation or as a result of structural changes and President Museveni’s pragmatic policy. Based on our intensive fieldwork during the dry season in 2017, we argue that an understanding of this development as a combination of the US proxy culture wars–US cultural wars being fought worldwide-interacting with local religious sensitivity is more plausible. The “sexual law” is a product of the clash between conservatives and progressivists over Uganda’s future. The Neo-Pentecostals—typically supported by conservative circles from the USA and Canada—stand against the influence of secular NGOs—mostly connected with the LGBTQ and progressivist circles from the USA and EU. However, the effect of international influence is limited due to religious sensitivity, shaped by local tradition. Uganda’s people are not passive victims of any kind. They take an active part in the global contest between cultural progressivists and conservatives. Full article

Humanitarian interventions have often been employed to promote the intervener’s political and economic interests. Given the issues around intervention’s morality, this article explores Michael Walzer’s humanitarian intervention theory in order to unravel the practical difficulties of legitimating humanitarian interventions in multisided conflicts. After exploring Walzer’s arguments as they relate to unilateral and multilateral interventions, this article explains why, according to the self-determination principle, intervening countries must share the victim’s cause. Later, the article uses the Syrian Civil War to exemplify the conundrum of crafting a legitimate humanitarian intervention in multisided conflicts where the victims are internally divided and have opposing political, economic, and/or religious views. This case study evidences how, in such contexts, humanitarian interventions simultaneously protect the population and promote the group that best represents the intervening state’s interests, thus turning internal conflicts into foreign proxy wars. Finally, the article argues that, despite Walzer’s proposal for a consistent theory of unilateral and multilateral humanitarian interventions, unilateral interventions should be replaced in multisided conflicts by multilateral interventions able to halt atrocities and provide a stable solution for internal conflicts. Full article

Humanitarian workers often complain that international aid to victims of armed conflicts is more and more militarized because relief organizations are embedded into peacekeeping operations, used as a “force multiplier”, or manipulated as an instrument of diplomacy by proxy. Historically, however, charity has always been a military issue in times of war. We can distinguish four types of militarization of relief organizations in this regard. First is the use of charities to make “war by proxy”, as in Afghanistan or Nicaragua in the 1980s. The second pattern is “embedment”, like the Red Cross during the two world wars. The third is “self-defense”, as with the Order of Saint John of Jerusalem (now Malta) in the 12th Century. The fourth, finally, is the model of “International Brigades” alongside the Spanish Republicans in 1936 or various liberation movements in the 1970s. In comparison, humanitarian aid today appears to be much less militarized. However, this perception also depends on the various definitions of the word “humanitarian”. Full article