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In order to accurately judge the tendency of rock burst disaster and effectively guide the prevention and control of rock burst disaster, a rock burst intensity-grade prediction model based on the comprehensive weighting of prediction indicators and Bayesian optimization algorithm–improved-support vector machine (BOA-SVM) is proposed for the first time. According to the main factors affecting the occurrence and intensity of rock burst, the rock stress coefficient (σ_θ/σ_c), brittleness coefficient (σ_c/σ_t) and elastic energy index (W_et) are selected to construct the rock burst prediction indicator system. On the basis of the research of other scholars, according to the main performance and characteristics of rock burst, rock burst is divided into four intensity levels. The collected and sorted 120 sets of rock burst case data at home and abroad are taken as learning samples, and the T-SNE algorithm is used to perform dimensionality-reduction visualization processing on the sample data, visually display the distribution of samples of different grades, evaluate the representativeness of the sample data and prejudge the feasibility of the machine learning algorithm to distinguish different rock burst intensity levels. The combined improved analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) and Delphi method determine the subjective weight of the indicators; the combined entropy weight method and CRITIC method determine the objective weight of the indicator, and use the harmonic mean criterion of information theory to synthesize the subjective weight and objective weight of the indicator to obtain the comprehensive weight of the indicators. After weighted prediction indicators, a rock burst intensity-grade prediction model is constructed based on the support vector machine, and the hyperparameters of three types of support vector machines are improved by using the Bayesian optimization algorithm. Then, the prediction accuracy of different models is calculated by the random cross-validation method, and the feasibility and effectiveness of the rock burst intensity-grade prediction model is verified. In order to evaluate the generalization and engineering applicability of the proposed model, 20 groups of rock burst case data from the Maluping mine and Daxiangling tunnel are introduced to predict the rock burst intensity grade. The results show that the accuracy of the rock burst intensity-grade prediction model based on comprehensive weighting and BOA-SVM is as high as 93.30%, which is of higher accuracy and better effect than the ordinary model, and can provide warning information with a higher fault tolerance rate, which provides a new way of thinking for rock burst intensity-grade prediction. Full article

Rock burst disasters occurring in underground high-stress rock mass mining and excavation engineering seriously threaten the safety of workers and hinders the progress of engineering construction. Rock burst classification prediction is the basis of reducing and even eliminating rock burst hazards. Currently, most of mainstream discriminant models for rock burst grade prediction are based on small samples. Comprehensive selection according to many pieces of literature, the maximum tangential stress of surrounding rock and rock uniaxial compressive strength ratio coefficient (stress state parameter), rock uniaxial compressive strength and uniaxial tensile strength ratio (brittleness modulus), and the elastic energy index are used as a grading evaluation index of rock burst based on the collection of different construction engineering instances of rock burst in 114 groups of extensive sample data in different regions of the world, which are used to carry out the training study. The representativeness and accuracy of the index selection were verified by the indicator variance analysis and Spearman correlation coefficient hypothesis test. The Intelligent Rock burst Identification System (IRIS) based on an optimizable SVM model was established using data set samples. After extensive data cross-validation training, the accuracy of the SVM discriminant analysis model can reach 95.6%, which is significantly better than the prediction accuracy of the traditional SVM model of 71.9%. The model is used to classify and predict the rock burst intensity of 10 typical projects at home and abroad. The prediction results are consistent with the actual rock burst intensity, which is better than the discriminant model based on small sample data and other existing prediction models. The application of engineering examples shows that the results of the rock burst intensity classification prediction model based on extensive sample data processing analysis and the SVM discriminant method are in good agreement with the actual rock burst intensity, which can effectively provide a reference for the prediction of rock burst intensity grade in a construction area. Full article