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Keywords = netload forecast

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28 pages, 7303 KB  
Article
Impact of PV/Wind Forecast Accuracy and National Transmission Grid Reinforcement on the Italian Electric System
by Marco Pierro, Fabio Romano Liolli, Damiano Gentili, Marcello Petitta, Richard Perez, David Moser and Cristina Cornaro
Energies 2022, 15(23), 9086; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15239086 - 30 Nov 2022
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2625
Abstract
The high share of PV energy requires greater system flexibility to address the increased demand/supply imbalance induced by the inherent intermittency and variability of the solar resource. In this work, we have developed a methodology to evaluate the margins for imbalance reduction and [...] Read more.
The high share of PV energy requires greater system flexibility to address the increased demand/supply imbalance induced by the inherent intermittency and variability of the solar resource. In this work, we have developed a methodology to evaluate the margins for imbalance reduction and flexibility that can be achieved by advanced solar/wind forecasting and by strengthening the national transmission grid connecting the Italian market areas. To this end, for the forecasting of the day-ahead supply that should be provided by dispatchable generators, we developed three advanced load/PV/wind forecasting methodologies based on a chain or on the optimal mix of different forecasting techniques. We showed that, compared to the baseline forecast, there is a large margin for the imbalance/flexibility reduction: 60.3% for the imbalance and 47.5% for the flexibility requirement. In contrast, the TSO forecast leaves only a small margin to reduce the imbalance of the system through more accurate forecasts, while a larger reduction can be achieved by removing the grid constrains between market zones. Furthermore, we have applied the new forecasting methodologies to estimate the amount of imbalance volumes/costs/flexibility/overgenerations that could be achieved in the future according to the Italian RES generation targets, highlighting some critical issues related to high variable renewable energy share. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Volume Ⅱ: Advances in Wind and Solar Farm Forecasting)
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15 pages, 2521 KB  
Article
Improving PV Resilience by Dynamic Reconfiguration in Distribution Grids: Problem Complexity and Computation Requirements
by Filipe F. C. Silva, Pedro M. S. Carvalho and Luís A. F. M. Ferreira
Energies 2021, 14(4), 830; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14040830 - 5 Feb 2021
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 2189
Abstract
The dissemination of low-carbon technologies, such as urban photovoltaic distributed generation, imposes new challenges to the operation of distribution grids. Distributed generation may introduce significant net-load asymmetries between feeders in the course of the day, resulting in higher losses. The dynamic reconfiguration of [...] Read more.
The dissemination of low-carbon technologies, such as urban photovoltaic distributed generation, imposes new challenges to the operation of distribution grids. Distributed generation may introduce significant net-load asymmetries between feeders in the course of the day, resulting in higher losses. The dynamic reconfiguration of the grid could mitigate daily losses and be used to minimize or defer the need for network reinforcement. Yet, dynamic reconfiguration has to be carried out in near real-time in order to make use of the most updated load and generation forecast, this way maximizing operational benefits. Given the need to quickly find and update reconfiguration decisions, the computational complexity of the underlying optimal scheduling problem is studied in this paper. The problem is formulated and the impact of sub-optimal solutions is illustrated using a real medium-voltage distribution grid operated under a heavy generation scenario. The complexity of the scheduling problem is discussed to conclude that its optimal solution is infeasible in practical terms if relying upon classical computing. Quantum computing is finally proposed as a way to handle this kind of problem in the future. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Distribution Grids Modernization)
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