Search Results (4)

Global climate change results in increasing challenges to the structural security of China’s food system, while pronounced spatial heterogeneities in provincial production and consumption intensify the risk of supply-demand imbalance. This study examines the resilience of China’s inter-provincial staple food flow network from a systemic perspective and identifies its key drivers. Inter-provincial food flows are first inferred using a cost-minimization optimization model. Network resilience is then evaluated by integrating complex network analysis with ecological network resilience theory. Finally, econometric analysis is applied to quantify the relative contributions of multiple structural factors to resilience dynamics. The results reveal an overall decline in the resilience of aggregated staple food, alongside persistently low resilience in soybeans network, indicating heightened structural vulnerability. Substantial heterogeneity is observed across staples in both resilience levels and underlying mechanisms. In general, greater connectivity and diversity of flow paths enhance system resilience, although this effect is markedly weaker for soybeans due to concentrated and import-dependent supply structures. By explicitly linking flow, network structure, and resilience, this study provides system-level insights into the functioning of inter-provincial food flow networks. The proposed analytical framework offers a transferable tool for assessing interregional food flow resilience and supports evidence-based strategies for validating system robustness under uncertainties. Full article

Under the spatial distribution of water resources, with more water resources in the southern regions and less in the northern regions, and the “north–south grain transport” pattern, calculating the virtual water flow in food trade between provinces in China and analyzing its sustainability is crucial for ensuring the country’s water resources and food security. By considering various products and consumption types, the virtual water flow in inter-provincial grain trade is estimated using the Minimum Transport Cost Method and the Penman-Monteith formula. The sustainability of this virtual water flow is evaluated at the provincial level. (1) The results show that the top three provinces with the largest net virtual water outflow from inter-provincial grain trade are Heilongjiang, Henan, and Anhui, with net outflows of 43.166 billion m³, 18.974 billion m³, and 13.089 billion m³, respectively. The top three provinces with the largest net virtual water inflows are Hebei, Guangxi, and Liaoning, with net inflows of 18.875 billion m³, 10.076 billion m³, and 8.795 billion m³, respectively. (2) The largest inter-provincial virtual water flow occurs from Henan to Hebei (15.06 billion m³), followed by Inner Mongolia to Hunan (9.57 billion m³), and Heilongjiang to Hubei (9.04 billion m³). (3) Overall, the current pattern of virtual water flow in China’s grain trade is sustainable, though several exporting provinces are under greater stress. In the actual scenario, the average water resource pressure index across all provinces is 0.43, 17.31% lower than the average of 0.52 in the scenario without inter-provincial grain trade. Compared with the scenario without inter-provincial grain product trade, in the actual scenario, Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia show a higher increase in water resource pressure index, with increases of 94.74%, 73.68%, and 48%, respectively; Beijing, Shanghai, and Qinghai show a greater decrease in water resource pressure index, with reductions of 94.64%, 79.41%, and 66.67%, individually. And then, efforts should be made to adjust and optimize the structure of grain production and circulation; provinces with virtual water net outflow (such as Heilongjiang, Henan, Anhui, etc.) need to adjust their grain cultivation types and grain export structures.; provinces with virtual water net inflow (such as Hebei, Guangxi, Liaoning, etc.) can appropriately expand the scale of grain cultivation, while adjusting their diets to reduce the demand for water-intensive grains. Full article

Food security serves as the cornerstone of national security, intricately linked to social stability and economic progress. Currently, with the swift evolutions in social economy, logistics and transport, information dissemination, and technological advancements, there has been a marked increase in the cross-regional flow of food production, distribution, and consumption. Consequently, the spatial interdependence of food security across different regions has grown increasingly salient. This paper investigates the spatial interrelationship of food security levels in China through a network analysis framework, examining its determinants and network dynamics. The findings offer valuable insights for decision-makers aiming to optimize agricultural resource allocation and enhance national food security levels. This research establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system for assessing food security levels in China across four dimensions: production security, distribution security, supply security, and consumption security. Employing data from 30 provinces between 2008 and 2022, the entropy method quantifies food security levels, while a modified gravity model underpins the construction of a spatial association network. This framework subsequently examines the network’s structural characteristics and the factors influencing its formation. The results reveal that: (1) China’s food security levels demonstrate a consistent upward trajectory over the study period, though significant regional disparities persist. The central region surpasses the national average, while the eastern and western regions lag. Recently, the western region has shown accelerated improvements in food security, followed by the central area, with the eastern region maintaining steady growth. (2) A structurally robust spatial correlation network of food security has emerged, characterized by variations in the number of network relationships, fluctuations in network density, and a decline in network efficiency while still exhibiting pronounced small-world characteristics. (3) The network displays a clear core-periphery structure, with Shanghai, Beijing, and Jiangsu positioned centrally, playing pivotal intermediary roles, whereas remote provinces such as Gansu, Ningxia, and Liaoning occupy the periphery. (4) The four major regions demonstrate sparse internal connectivity yet robust inter-regional ties, resulting in pronounced spillover effects. (5) Various factors, including geographic distance, provincial proximity, disparities in economic development levels, variations in marketization, differences in agricultural human capital, and disparities in land productivity, significantly impact the establishment of spatial correlations in food security. The affirmative influences of geographic distance and neighboring relations, along with the beneficial shifts in economic development disparities, suggest that the flow of technology and resources plays a crucial role in reinforcing spatial connections. Full article

Telecoupling interregional resource interaction based on cultivated land grain production (CLGP) plays a crucial role in ensuring national food security and advancing sustainable socio-environmental and economic development. Based on the provincial panel data of 31 administrative regions in China from 1990 to 2020, we used the spatial and temporal evolution of CLGP and the global Moran index to detect the spatial correlation of CLGP among the provinces in China; we adopted the SDM to study the telecoupling effect of CLGP among the provinces in China and decompose the effect, enabling us to propose policy recommendations for enhancing the telecoupling effect among the provinces. The results are as follows: (1) China’s inter-provincial CLGP has shown an increasingly strong telecoupling effect over time, further validating the scientific nature of China’s grain production pattern. (2) Cultivated land, irrigation area, the number of agricultural employees, the power of agricultural machinery, the proportion of grain sown, and total grain production have positive “flow” effects on spatial teleconnections between provinces and regions. (3) In terms of the total telecoupling effect, the most significant factor affecting CLGP is the ratio of the area sown with grain to the total area sown with crops. Meanwhile, the area of cultivated land in each region, the irrigated area, the agricultural labor force, the agricultural machinery total power, and the percentage of grain sowing in each region have the most direct telecoupling effect on CLGP. The conduct of the study further fleshes out the empirical research on interregional resource telecoupling linkages arising from resource deployment and utilization. Full article