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Natural gas scarcity poses a significant risk to the global economy. The risk of production loss due to natural gas scarcity can be transferred to downstream economies through globalized supply chains. Therefore, it is important to quantify and analyze how natural gas scarcity in some regions affects the Belt and Road (B&R) economies. The embodied natural gas scarcity risks (EGSRs) of B&R economies are assessed and the EGSR transmission network is constructed. The built network shows a small-world nature. This illustrates that any interruption in key countries will quickly spread to neighboring countries, potentially affecting the global economy. The top countries, including Turkey, China, Ukraine, and India are identified in EGSR exports, which also have relatively high values of closeness centrality. The findings illustrate that the shortage of natural gas supply in these countries may have a significant impact on downstream countries or sectors and the resulting economic losses spread rapidly. These countries are critical to the resilience of the B&R economies to natural gas scarcity. The top nations, including Turkmenistan, Macedonia, and Georgia are also identified in EGSR imports, highlighting their vulnerability to natural gas scarcity. Further, the community analysis of the network provides a fresh perspective for formulating fair and reasonable allocation policies of natural gas resources and minimizing the large-scale spread of economic losses caused by natural gas scarcity. Full article

The rapid development of the Belt and Road economics has generated a considerable energy demand. Under the general trend of the global energy transition, natural gas resources are becoming the main driving force. The limited natural gas resources are posing a significant risk to economies, and this risk may also be transferred to other distant regions through economic trade. The aim of this study is to explore the trans-regional (sectoral) transmission pattern of natural gas scarcity risk. The main contribution of this paper is the assessment of the local natural gas scarcity risk (LGSR) and cross-region transfer relationship of embodied natural gas scarcity risk (EGSR), which are evaluated for the BRI economies. In addition, the network amplification effect is considered when evaluating the cross-regional impact of natural gas scarcity risk. The results show that, at the national level, Turkey, Ukraine, and Bulgaria have significant EGSR related to exports activities. The natural gas scarcity risks (GSRs) originating from these countries are mainly transferred to Turkmenistan, Georgia, and Albania, with large EGSR imports. Moreover, by comparing the ranking changes of EGSR imports, EGSR exports, and LGSRs at the national and sectoral levels, countries or sectors with higher LGSRs also have higher EGSR exports. The Top EGSR import and export network consisting of top EGSR flow relationships can well reflect countries’ preferences in choosing EGSR transfer partners. The results suggest that upstream countries and sectors should strengthen cooperation to manage natural gas resources, and provide references for decision makers in highly vulnerable downstream countries and sectors to formulate strategies to avoid the large-scale spread of economic losses caused by natural gas scarcity. Full article