Search Results (4)

Streamflow prediction is crucial for planning future developments and safety measures along river basins, especially in the face of changing climate patterns. In this study, we utilized monthly streamflow data from the United States Bureau of Reclamation and meteorological data (snow water equivalent, temperature, and precipitation) from the various weather monitoring stations of the Snow Telemetry Network within the Upper Colorado River Basin to forecast monthly streamflow at Lees Ferry, a specific location along the Colorado River in the basin. Four machine learning models—Random Forest Regression, Long short-term memory, Gated Recurrent Unit, and Seasonal AutoRegresive Integrated Moving Average—were trained using 30 years of monthly data (1991–2020), split into 80% for training (1991–2014) and 20% for testing (2015–2020). Initially, only historical streamflow data were used for predictions, followed by including meteorological factors to assess their impact on streamflow. Subsequently, sequence analysis was conducted to explore various input-output sequence window combinations. We then evaluated the influence of each factor on streamflow by testing all possible combinations to identify the optimal feature combination for prediction. Our results indicate that the Random Forest Regression model consistently outperformed others, especially after integrating all meteorological factors with historical streamflow data. The best performance was achieved with a 24-month look-back period to predict 12 months of streamflow, yielding a Root Mean Square Error of 2.25 and R-squared ($R^2$) of 0.80. Finally, to assess model generalizability, we tested the best model at other locations—Greenwood Springs (Colorado River), Maybell (Yampa River), and Archuleta (San Juan) in the basin. Full article

Methods for downstream river flow prediction can be categorized into physics-based and empirical approaches. Although based on well-studied physical relationships, physics-based models rely on numerous hydrologic variables characteristic of the specific river system that can be costly to acquire. Moreover, simulation is often computationally intensive. Conversely, empirical models require less information about the system being modeled and can capture a system’s interactions based on a smaller set of observed data. This article introduces two empirical methods to predict downstream hydraulic variables based on observed stream data: a linear programming (LP) model, and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We apply both empirical models within the Colorado River system to a site located on the Green River, downstream of the Yampa River confluence and Flaming Gorge Dam, and compare it to the physics-based model Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) currently used by federal agencies. Results show that both proposed models significantly outperform the SSARR model. Moreover, the CNN model outperforms the LP model for hourly predictions whereas both perform similarly for daily predictions. Although less accurate than the CNN model at finer temporal resolution, the LP model is ideal for linear water scheduling tools. Full article

Otolith microchemistry has emerged as a powerful technique with which to identify the natal origins of fishes, but it relies on differences in underlying geology that may occur over large spatial scales. An examination of how small a spatial scale on which this technique can be implemented, especially in water bodies that share a large proportion of their flow, would be useful for guiding aquatic invasive species control efforts. We examined trace isotopic signatures in northern pike (Esox lucius) otoliths to estimate their provenance between two reservoirs in the Upper Yampa River Basin, Colorado, USA. This is a challenging study area as these reservoirs are only 11-rkm apart on the same river and thus share a high proportion of their inflow. We found that three isotopes (⁸⁶Sr, ¹³⁷Ba, and ⁵⁵Mn) were useful in discriminating between these reservoirs, but their signatures varied annually, and the values overlapped. Strontium isotope ratios (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) were different between sites and relatively stable across three years, which made them an ideal marker for determining northern pike provenance. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of otolith microchemistry for natal origin determination within the same river over a relatively small spatial scale when there are geologic differences between sites, especially geologic differences underlying tributaries between sites. Full article

Estimation of flood magnitude for a given recurrence interval T (T-year flood) at a specific location is needed for design of hydraulic and civil infrastructure facilities. A key step in the estimation or flood frequency analysis (FFA) is the selection of a suitable distribution. More than one distribution is often found to be adequate for FFA on a given watershed and choosing the best one is often less than objective. In this study, the generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2) was introduced for FFA. The principle of maximum entropy (POME) method was proposed to estimate the GB2 parameters. The performance of GB2 distribution was evaluated using flood data from gauging stations on the Colorado River, USA. Frequency estimates from the GB2 distribution were also compared with those of commonly used distributions. Also, the evolution of frequency distribution along the stream from upstream to downstream was investigated. It concludes that the GB2 is appealing for FFA, since it has four parameters and includes some well-known distributions. Results of case study demonstrate that the parameters estimated by POME method are found reasonable. According to the RMSD and AIC values, the performance of the GB2 distribution is better than that of the widely used distributions in hydrology. When using different distributions for FFA, significant different design flood values are obtained. For a given return period, the design flood value of the downstream gauging stations is larger than that of the upstream gauging station. In addition, there is an evolution of distribution. Along the Yampa River, the distribution for FFA changes from the four-parameter GB2 distribution to the three-parameter Burr XII distribution. Full article