Search Results (3)

This work explores the effectiveness of explainable artificial intelligence in mapping solar photovoltaic power outputs based on weather data, focusing on short-term mappings. We analyzed the impact values provided by the Shapley additive explanation method when applied to two algorithms designed for tabular data—XGBoost and TabNet—and conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the overall model and across seasons. Our findings revealed that the impact of selected features remained relatively consistent throughout the year, underscoring their uniformity across seasons. Additionally, we propose a feature selection methodology utilizing the explanation values to produce more efficient models, by reducing data requirements while maintaining performance within a threshold of the original model. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology was demonstrated through its application to a residential dataset in Madeira, Portugal, augmented with weather data sourced from SolCast. Full article

Three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling for small, stratified tropical lakes in the Philippines and in Southeast Asia in general is not deeply explored. This study pioneers investigating the hydrodynamics of a small crater lake in the Philippines with a focus on temperature simulation using a Fantom Refined 3D model that has been tested mostly for temperate and sub-tropical lakes. The lake’s monthly temperature during the dry season served as a reference for the model’s initial condition and validation. For the simulation to proceed, input data such as weather, inflow, and bathymetry were prepared. In the absence of hourly meteorological data from local weather stations, this paper adopted the satellite weather data from Solcast. Simple correlation analysis of daily weather data between local stations and Solcast showed valid and acceptable results. Inflow values were estimated using the rational method while the stream temperature was estimated from a regression equation using air temperatures as input. The validated satellite-derived data and runoff model can therefore be employed for 3D modeling. The simulations resulted in extremely higher temperatures compared with those observed when using previous default model settings. Direct modifications were then applied to weather parameters, compromising their integrity but resulting in reasonable profiles. By adding scaling factors to heat flux equations and multiplying their components by 0.75 (shortwave), 1.35 (longwave), 0.935 (air temperature), and 0.80 (wind), better results were achieved. This study identifies several challenges in performing 3D hydrodynamic modeling, such as paucity in input hydro-meteorologic and limnologic data and the need for heat flux model improvement. Overall, this study was successful in employing 3D hydrodynamic modeling in a tropical lake, which can pave directions and serve as an excellent reference for future modeling in the same region. Full article

This study validates the hourly satellite based and reanalysis based global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for sites in South Africa. Hourly GHI satellite based namely: SOLCAST, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), and Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CMSAF SARAH) and two reanalysis based, namely, fifth generation European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2) were assessed by comparing in situ measured data from 13 South African Weather Service radiometric stations, located in the country’s six macro climatological regions, for the period 2013–2019. The in situ data were first quality controlled using the Baseline Surface Radiation Network methodology. Data visualization and statistical metrics relative mean bias error (rMBE), relative root mean square error (rRMSE), relative mean absolute error (rMAE), and the coefficient of determination (R²) were used to evaluate the performance of the datasets. There was very good correlation against in situ GHI for the satellite based GHI, all with R² above 0.95. The R² correlations for the reanalysis based GHI were less than 0.95 (0.931 for ERA5 and 0.888 for MERRA2). The satellite and reanalysis based GHI showed a positive rMBE (SOLCAST 0.81%, CAMS 2.14%, CMSAF 2.13%, ERA5 1.7%, and MERRA2 11%), suggesting consistent overestimation over the country. SOLCAST satellite based GHI showed the best rRMSE (14%) and rMAE (9%) combinations. MERRA2 reanalysis based GHI showed the weakest rRMSE (37%) and rMAE (22%) combinations. SOLCAST satellite based GHI showed the best overall performance. When considering only the freely available datasets, CAMS and CMSAF performed better with the same overall rMBE (2%), however, CAMS showed slightly better rRMSE (16%), rMAE (10%), and R² (0.98) combinations than CMSAF rRMSE (17%), rMAE (11%), and R² (0.97). CAMS and CMSAF are viable freely available data sources for South African locations. Full article