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Keywords = SEIAR epidemic model

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16 pages, 820 KiB  
Article
Stability Analysis of SEIAR Model with Age Structure Under Media Effect
by Hongliang Gao, Fanli Zhang and Jiemei Li
Axioms 2025, 14(6), 412; https://doi.org/10.3390/axioms14060412 - 28 May 2025
Viewed by 262
Abstract
In this paper, we establish an age-structured SEIAR epidemic model that incorporates media effects and employ the exponential function approach to demonstrate the crucial role of media influence in disease prevention and control. Notably, our model accounts for the possibility of recessive infected [...] Read more.
In this paper, we establish an age-structured SEIAR epidemic model that incorporates media effects and employ the exponential function approach to demonstrate the crucial role of media influence in disease prevention and control. Notably, our model accounts for the possibility of recessive infected individuals becoming dominant through contact with infectious individuals. Theoretical analysis yields the explicit expression for the basic reproduction number R0, which serves as a critical threshold for disease dynamics. Through comprehensive threshold analysis, we investigate the existence and stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibrium states. By applying characteristic equation analysis and the method of characteristics, we establish the following: (1) when R0<1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; (2) when R0>1, a unique endemic equilibrium exists and maintains local asymptotic stability under specific conditions. This study shows that strengthening media promotion, raising awareness, and reducing the density of recessive infected individuals can effectively control the further spread of a disease. To validate our theoretical results, we present numerical simulations that quantitatively assess the impact of varying media reporting intensities on epidemic containment measures. These simulations provide practical insights for public health intervention strategies. Full article
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36 pages, 4068 KiB  
Article
On Confinement and Quarantine Concerns on an SEIAR Epidemic Model with Simulated Parameterizations for the COVID-19 Pandemic
by Manuel De la Sen, Asier Ibeas and Ravi P. Agarwal
Symmetry 2020, 12(10), 1646; https://doi.org/10.3390/sym12101646 - 7 Oct 2020
Cited by 25 | Viewed by 4166
Abstract
This paper firstly studies an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) epidemic model without demography and with no disease mortality under both total and under partial quarantine of the susceptible subpopulation or of both the susceptible and the infectious ones in order to satisfy the hospital availability [...] Read more.
This paper firstly studies an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) epidemic model without demography and with no disease mortality under both total and under partial quarantine of the susceptible subpopulation or of both the susceptible and the infectious ones in order to satisfy the hospital availability requirements on bed disposal and other necessary treatment means for the seriously infectious subpopulations. The seriously infectious individuals are assumed to be a part of the total infectious being described by a time-varying proportional function. A time-varying upper-bound of those seriously infected individuals has to be satisfied as objective by either a total confinement or partial quarantine intervention of the susceptible subpopulation. Afterwards, a new extended SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) epidemic model, which is referred to as an SEIAR (susceptible-exposed-symptomatic infectious-asymptomatic infectious-recovered) epidemic model with demography and disease mortality is given and focused on so as to extend the above developed ideas on the SIR model. A proportionally gain in the model parameterization is assumed to distribute the transition from the exposed to the infectious into the two infectious individuals (namely, symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals). Such a model is evaluated under total or partial quarantines of all or of some of the subpopulations which have the effect of decreasing the number of contagions. Simulated numerical examples are also discussed related to model parameterizations of usefulness related to the current COVID-19 pandemic outbreaks. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling and Simulation of Natural Phenomena of Current Interest)
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