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Keywords = Dyna CLUE

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19 pages, 4542 KiB  
Article
Exploring the Driving Factors of Land Use Change and Spatial Distribution in Coastal Cities: A Case Study of Xiamen City
by Tianhai Zhang, Greg Foliente, Jiangtao Xiao and Lina Tang
Sustainability 2025, 17(3), 941; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17030941 - 24 Jan 2025
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1057
Abstract
This study focuses on the coastal city of Xiamen, examining the factors and driving mechanisms influencing land use changes and spatial patterns. Spatial logistic regression and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software were employed using grid data with a resolution of [...] Read more.
This study focuses on the coastal city of Xiamen, examining the factors and driving mechanisms influencing land use changes and spatial patterns. Spatial logistic regression and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software were employed using grid data with a resolution of 100m to analyze the spatial relationships between six driving factors (such as elevation and slope) and five land use types within the study area. Regression models were established for each factor, and all Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) tests were passed. Based on the results of the logistic regression analysis, land use changes and spatial distribution were simulated using the updated Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model so as to validate the driving mechanisms. The findings indicate that the six driving factors effectively explain the spatial patterns of land use in the study area. The distance to the coastline is the primary influencing factor in the evolution of spatial patterns, particularly impacting built-up land and farmland, while for forest land, slope is the main factor affecting the spatial distribution. The simulation and accuracy analysis revealed an overall simulation accuracy ranging from 73% to 90.1%, demonstrating that the selected driving factors have effective explanatory power for the spatial distribution of land use. Thus, this study’s results provide valuable insights into the complexity of land use changes and serve as a reference for relevant departments in land use management and planning. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainable Management)
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24 pages, 4313 KiB  
Article
Land Use Optimization Embedding in Ecological Suitability in the Embryonic Urban Agglomeration
by Xidong Chen, Ruifeng Zhao, Peiji Shi, Lihua Zhang, Xiaoxin Yue, Ziyi Han, Jingfa Wang and Hanmei Dou
Land 2023, 12(6), 1164; https://doi.org/10.3390/land12061164 - 1 Jun 2023
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 2008
Abstract
Healthy and sustainable urban agglomerations development relies heavily on land use optimization. However, there is insufficient scientific basis and reliable quantitative analysis for land use pattern identification and optimal prediction in embryonic urban agglomeration. Therefore, taking the Lanzhou–Xining (LX) region, a typical primary [...] Read more.
Healthy and sustainable urban agglomerations development relies heavily on land use optimization. However, there is insufficient scientific basis and reliable quantitative analysis for land use pattern identification and optimal prediction in embryonic urban agglomeration. Therefore, taking the Lanzhou–Xining (LX) region, a typical primary developing urban agglomeration, as the study area, we first assessed the land ecological suitability (LES). Then, we embedded the LES evaluation results in the land optimization process and constructed the MCR-MOP- Dyna-CLUE model framework, simulating and optimizing land use patterns for the year 2035 under ecological optimization and business as usual scenarios, which aimed to explore a sustainable land use pattern for embryonic urban agglomerations. The results indicated that the ecological optimization scenario based on LES had a more rational land use pattern. It appropriately controlled the expansion rate of construction land and effectively alleviated the problems of construction land encroaching on farming land and ecological land. Meanwhile, the ecosystem services increased in value based on adequately addressing the need for food security and economic development. Compared to the business as usual scenario, the construction land under the ecological optimization scenario was 19,622.69 ha less, and the cultivated land was 32,103.29 ha more. Moreover, the ecological benefit and the economic benefit increased by 187,490.4595 million yuan and 151,808,605.1 million yuan from 2020 to 2035, respectively, under the ecological optimization scenario. Our research is of great value for making decisions on sustainable land use and land resource management in initial developing agglomerations. Full article
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18 pages, 41048 KiB  
Article
Ecological Quality Response to Multi-Scenario Land-Use Changes in the Heihe River Basin
by Shengtang Wang and Yingchun Ge
Sustainability 2022, 14(5), 2716; https://doi.org/10.3390/su14052716 - 25 Feb 2022
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 3524
Abstract
To investigate the spatial-temporal effects of land-use changes on ecological quality and future trends, an integrated framework combining the Dyna-CLUE model and the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) was developed. Land-use changes from 2000 to 2035 were simulated and projected under the current [...] Read more.
To investigate the spatial-temporal effects of land-use changes on ecological quality and future trends, an integrated framework combining the Dyna-CLUE model and the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) was developed. Land-use changes from 2000 to 2035 were simulated and projected under the current trend scenario (CTS), economic development scenario (EDS) and ecological protection scenario (EPS) in the Heihe River Basin, while the RSEI was predicted using the elastic net regression (machine learning method); finally, the predicted results were synthesized and analyzed. The results showed that forest, grassland and water were positively correlated with ecological quality, with the green space coverage under the CTS, EPS and EDS accounting for 34.15%, 70.65% and 34.72% of the total transferred land area, respectively. The increase in the area of build-up land and unutilized land was detrimental to ecological quality, with the area of building land in the EDS being 1.75 times larger than in the year 2000. The EDS contributes to the sustainable development of the upstream area and the EPS is more conducive to the midstream and downstream areas by limiting the expansion of build-up land and by developing unutilized land in a limited way to increase the area of green space after reconciling economic conditions. Projection results promote the rational allocation of various land-use types in the future (semi) arid region, such as artificial forestation, unutilized land development and restriction of urban expansion, and also lay the foundation for the formulation of policies such as water allocation and ecological protection to facilitate the sustainable development of regional society, economy and ecology. Full article
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17 pages, 2410 KiB  
Article
Strategies to Mitigate the Deteriorating Habitat Quality in Dong Trieu District, Vietnam
by Thi Thu Vu, Yuan Shen and Hung-Yu Lai
Land 2022, 11(2), 305; https://doi.org/10.3390/land11020305 - 17 Feb 2022
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2395
Abstract
Dong Trieu district is a vital connection for territorial ecological security and human welfare between Hanoi (the capital of Vietnam) and Quang Ninh province. Therefore, habitat quality (HQ) is of extraordinary importance to the area’s sustainable development. The ArcGIS platform, Dyna-CLUE, and InVEST [...] Read more.
Dong Trieu district is a vital connection for territorial ecological security and human welfare between Hanoi (the capital of Vietnam) and Quang Ninh province. Therefore, habitat quality (HQ) is of extraordinary importance to the area’s sustainable development. The ArcGIS platform, Dyna-CLUE, and InVEST models were utilized in this study to assess the spatial and temporal transformations of land use and the changes of HQ in 2030 under various scenarios, with intentions to find strategies that may mitigate the HQ’s deteriorating trend in the district. Simulated results indicated that, assuming the development is maintained as usual, the average HQ of the District at 2030 could diminish by 0.044 from that of 2019 (a four-times decrease compared to the previous decade). Cases comprised of four basic scenarios, including development as usual, built-up expansion slowdown, forest protection emphasized, and agricultural land conversion, were used to identify potential strategies to mitigate the deteriorating trend. Simulated results revealed that keeping the built-up expansion rate lower than 100 ha y−1, the deforestation rate lower than 20 ha y−1, and preferring orchards over agricultural land conversion is required to limit the drop in HQ to within 0.01 in the next decade. Other than the existing population growth control policy, new guidelines such as (1) changing urban expansion type from outward to upward to control the built-up expansion rate, (2) substituting forest-harming industries to forest-preservation industries to reduce deforestation rate, (3) encouraging orchards preferred over agricultural land conversion to increase incomes while maintaining higher habitat quality, (4) practicing better farming technologies to improve crop production and to alleviate potential food security issues due to considerable reduction in cropland, and (5) promoting Green Infrastructure and the Belt and Road Initiative to increase urban green cover and raise residents’ income should be considered in designing the new mitigation strategies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Land Socio-Economic and Political Issues)
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23 pages, 12513 KiB  
Article
Spatial Evolution of Coastal Tourist City Using the Dyna-CLUE Model in Koh Chang of Thailand during 1990–2050
by Katawut Waiyasusri and Srilert Chotpantarat
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2022, 11(1), 49; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi11010049 - 10 Jan 2022
Cited by 26 | Viewed by 4362
Abstract
Spatial evolution can be traced by land-use change (LUC), which is a frontier issue in the field of geography. Using the limited areas of Koh Chang in Thailand as the research case, this study analyzed the simulation of its spatial evolution from a [...] Read more.
Spatial evolution can be traced by land-use change (LUC), which is a frontier issue in the field of geography. Using the limited areas of Koh Chang in Thailand as the research case, this study analyzed the simulation of its spatial evolution from a multi-scenario perspective on the basis of the 1900–2020 thematic mapper/operational land imager (TM/OLI) remote sensing data obtained through the transfer matrix model, and modified LUC and the dynamic land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE). Over the past 30 years, the expansion of recreation areas and urban and built-up land has been very high (2944.44% and 486.99%, respectively) along the western coast of Koh Chang, which replaced the original mangrove forests, orchards, and communities. Logistic regression analysis of important variables affecting LUC revealed that population density variables and coastal plain topography significantly affected LUC, which showed strong β coefficients prominently in the context of a coastal tourist city. The results of the LUC and logistic regression analyses were used to predict future LUCs in the Dyna-CLUE model to simulate 2050 land-use in three scenarios: (1) natural evolution scenario, where a large patch expansion of agricultural land extends along the edge of the entire forest boundary around the island, particularly the southwestern areas of the island that should be monitored; (2) reserved area protection scenario, where the boundary of the conservation area is incorporated into the model, enabling forest preservation in conjunction with tourism development; and (3) recreation area growth scenario, where the southern area is the most susceptible to change at the new road crossing between Khlong Kloi village to Salak Phet village, and where land-use of the recreation area type is expanding. The model-projected LUC maps provide insights into possible changes under multiple pathways, which could help local communities, government agencies, and stakeholders jointly allocate resource planning in a systematic way, so that the development of various infrastructures to realize the potential impact on the environment is a sustainable coastal tourist city development. Full article
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14 pages, 3560 KiB  
Article
Impact of Future Land-Use/Cover Change on Streamflow and Sediment Load in the Be River Basin, Vietnam
by Dao Nguyen Khoi, Pham Thi Loi and Truong Thao Sam
Water 2021, 13(9), 1244; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13091244 - 29 Apr 2021
Cited by 17 | Viewed by 4539
Abstract
Evaluation of the influence of land-use/cover (LUC) change on water and sediment fluxes from river basins is essential for proposing adaptation and mitigation strategies, but as of yet little information is available, especially in the tropics. For this motivation, the objective of this [...] Read more.
Evaluation of the influence of land-use/cover (LUC) change on water and sediment fluxes from river basins is essential for proposing adaptation and mitigation strategies, but as of yet little information is available, especially in the tropics. For this motivation, the objective of this study was to assess the impact of scenarios of LUC change on streamflow and sediment load in the Be River Basin using the Dynamic Conversion of Land-Use and its Effects (Dyna-CLUE) model and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The Dyna-CLUE and SWAT models were calibrated and validated against observed data in the period of 1980–2010. Three future LUC scenarios in 2030, 2050, and 2070 were generated utilizing the calibrated Dyna-CLUE model based on the historical conversion of forest land to agricultural land and urban area in the study region. Subsequently, the calibrated SWAT model was used to simulate the changes in streamflow and sediment load under these three future LUC scenarios. Results indicated that the annual streamflow and sediment load were estimated to be approximately 287.35 m3/s and 101.23 × 103 ton/month for the baseline period. Under the influence of future LUC scenarios, the annual streamflow and sediment load would experience increases of 0.19% to 0.45% and 0.22% to 0.68%, respectively. In addition, the 5th and 95th percentile values of streamflow and sediment load are predicted to rise in the context of future LUC change. The results achieved from the present study will support the managers and policy makers proposing appropriate solutions for sustainable water resources management and sediment control in the context of LUC change. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sediment Transport and River Morphology)
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18 pages, 19626 KiB  
Article
Estimating Changes in Habitat Quality through Land-Use Predictions: Case Study of Roe Deer (Capreolus pygargus tianschanicus) in Jeju Island
by Dong-jin Lee and Seong Woo Jeon
Sustainability 2020, 12(23), 10123; https://doi.org/10.3390/su122310123 - 4 Dec 2020
Cited by 19 | Viewed by 3773
Abstract
This study predicts future land-use changes and the resulting changes in habitat quality, suggesting a method for establishing land-use management to ensure sustainable wildlife habitats. The conservation effects were verified in terms of wild animal habitat quality according to the designation of protected [...] Read more.
This study predicts future land-use changes and the resulting changes in habitat quality, suggesting a method for establishing land-use management to ensure sustainable wildlife habitats. The conservation effects were verified in terms of wild animal habitat quality according to the designation of protected areas. Land-use change until 2050 was predicted using the Dyna-Conversion of Land Use Change and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) model for Jeju Island, Korea, and the change in the quality of roe deer habitats was predicted using the Integrated Valuation and Environmental Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Results indicate that, compared to 2030, urbanized area increased by 42.55 km2, farmland decreased by 81.36 km2, and natural area increased by 38.82 km2 by 2050. The average habitat quality on Jeju Island was predicted to decrease from 0.306 in 2030 to 0.303 in 2050. The average habitat quality ranged from 0.477 in 2030 to 0.476 in 2050 in protected areas and 0.281 in 2030 to 0.278 in 2050 outside protected areas. Habitat quality in protected areas was relatively high, and its reduction was limited. Areas with lower habitat quality need approaches such as expanding greenery and improving its quality. By establishing appropriate land-use plans by predicting habitat quality, wildlife habitats can be better maintained and protected, which is a primary goal of green infrastructure. Full article
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20 pages, 5845 KiB  
Article
Evaluating Spatial Scenarios for Sustainable Development in Quito, Ecuador
by Esthela Salazar, Cristián Henríquez, Richard Sliuzas and Jorge Qüense
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2020, 9(3), 141; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9030141 - 28 Feb 2020
Cited by 21 | Viewed by 7880
Abstract
Peripheral urban sprawl configures new, extensive conurbations that transcend current administrative boundaries. Land use planning, supported by the analysis of future scenarios, is a guide to achieve sustainability in large metropolitan areas. To understand how urban sprawl is consuming natural and agricultural land, [...] Read more.
Peripheral urban sprawl configures new, extensive conurbations that transcend current administrative boundaries. Land use planning, supported by the analysis of future scenarios, is a guide to achieve sustainability in large metropolitan areas. To understand how urban sprawl is consuming natural and agricultural land, this paper analyzes land use changes in the metropolis of Quito, considering a combination of urban planning, natural conservation and risk areas. Using the Dyna-CLUE model we simulate spatial demands for future land uses by 2050, based on two growth scenarios: the trend scenario (unrestricted growth) and the regulated scenario, which considers two parameters—a government proposal for urban expansion areas and laws that protect natural areas. Both scenarios show how urban expansion consumes agricultural and natural areas. This expansion is backed by urban policies which do not sufficiently account for conservation areas nor for risk areas. Therefore, these simulations suggest that planning should follow a more holistic approach that explicitly considers urban growth beyond current administrative limits, in what we refer to as the New Metropolitan Area of Quito. Full article
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18 pages, 6603 KiB  
Article
Investigation of Future Land Use Change and Implications for Cropland Quality: The Case of China
by Meng Wang, Xiaofang Sun, Zemeng Fan and Tianxiang Yue
Sustainability 2019, 11(12), 3327; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11123327 - 16 Jun 2019
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3519
Abstract
Cropland loss resulting from land use change has drawn great attention in China due to the threat to food security. However, little is known about future magnitude and quality of cropland of China. In this study, the dynamic conversion of land use and [...] Read more.
Cropland loss resulting from land use change has drawn great attention in China due to the threat to food security. However, little is known about future magnitude and quality of cropland of China. In this study, the dynamic conversion of land use and its effects model (Dyna-CLUE) together with the Markov model and the potential yield data were used to simulate the influence of land use change on cropland quality in the next two decades under three scenarios. The results indicate that, under the trend scenario, the high-yield and medium-yield cropland would decrease and the low-yield cropland would increase between 2015 and 2030. The crop yield would decrease by 1.3 × 109 kg. Under planned scenario, high-yield and medium-yield cropland would decrease and the low-yield cropland would increase, and total crop yield would stay almost unchanged. Under the cropland protection scenario, the high-yield cropland would reduce slightly, and the medium-yield and low-yield cropland would increase substantially. The crop yield would increase by 5.36 × 1010 kg. The result of this study will help decision-makers to develop reasonable land use policies to achieve the goals of harmonious development between food security, economic growth, and environmental protection. Full article
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22 pages, 2899 KiB  
Article
Land-Use/Land-Cover Change from Socio-Economic Drivers and Their Impact on Biodiversity in Nan Province, Thailand
by Yongyut Trisurat, Hiroaki Shirakawa and John M. Johnston
Sustainability 2019, 11(3), 649; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030649 - 26 Jan 2019
Cited by 60 | Viewed by 11102
Abstract
The rate of deforestation declined steadily in Thailand since the year 2000 due to economic transformation away from forestry. However, these changes did not occur in Nan Province located in northern Thailand. Deforestation is expected to continue due to high demand for forest [...] Read more.
The rate of deforestation declined steadily in Thailand since the year 2000 due to economic transformation away from forestry. However, these changes did not occur in Nan Province located in northern Thailand. Deforestation is expected to continue due to high demand for forest products and increased agribusiness. The objectives of this paper are (1) to predict land-use change in the province based on trends, market-based and conservation scenarios, (2) to quantify biodiversity, and (3) to identify biodiversity hotspots at greatest risk for future deforestation. This study used a dynamic land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) to allocate aggregated land demand for three scenarios and employed FRAGSTATS to determine the spatial pattern of land-use change. In addition, the InVEST Global Biodiversity Assessment Model framework was used to estimate biodiversity expressed as the remaining mean species abundance (MSA) relative to their abundance in the pristine reference condition. Risk of deforestation and the MSA values were combined to determine biodiversity hotspots across the landscape at greatest risk. The results revealed that most of the forest cover in 2030 would remain in the west and east of the province, which are rugged and not easily accessible, as well as in protected areas. MSA values are predicted to decrease from 0.41 in 2009 to 0.29, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively, under the trends, market-based and conservation scenarios in 2030. In addition, the low, medium, and high biodiversity zones cover 46, 49 and 6% of Nan Province. Protected areas substantially contribute to maintaining forest cover and greater biodiversity. Important measures to protect remaining cover and maintain biodiversity include patrolling at-risk deforestation areas, reduction of road expansion in pristine forest areas, and promotion of incentive schemes for farmers to rehabilitate degraded ecosystems. Full article
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23 pages, 15750 KiB  
Review
Projecting Land-Use and Land Cover Change in a Subtropical Urban Watershed
by John J. Lagrosa, Wayne C. Zipperer and Michael G. Andreu
Urban Sci. 2018, 2(1), 11; https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci2010011 - 31 Jan 2018
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 4814
Abstract
Urban landscapes are heterogeneous mosaics that develop via significant land-use and land cover (LULC) change. Current LULC models project future landscape patterns, but generally avoid urban landscapes due to heterogeneity. To project LULC change for an urban landscape, we parameterize an established LULC [...] Read more.
Urban landscapes are heterogeneous mosaics that develop via significant land-use and land cover (LULC) change. Current LULC models project future landscape patterns, but generally avoid urban landscapes due to heterogeneity. To project LULC change for an urban landscape, we parameterize an established LULC model (Dyna-CLUE) under baseline conditions (continued current trends) for a sub-tropical urban watershed in Tampa, FL. Change was modeled for 2012–2016 with observed data from 1995–2011. An ecosystem services-centric classification was used to define 9 LULC classes. Dyna-CLUE projects change using two modules: non-spatial quantity and spatial reallocation. The data-intensive spatial module requires a binomial logistic regression of socioecological driving factors, maps of restricted areas, and conversion settings, which control the sensitivity of class-to-class conversions. Observed quantity trends showed a decrease in area for agriculture, rangeland and upland forests by 49%, 56% and 27% respectively with a 22% increase in residential and 8% increase in built areas, primarily during 1995–2004. The spatial module projected future change to occur mostly in the relatively rural northeastern section of the watershed. Receiver-operating characteristic curves to evaluate driving factors averaged an area of 0.73 across classes. The manipulation of these baseline trends as constrained scenarios will not only enable urban planners to project future patterns under many ecological, economic and sociological conditions, but also examine changes in urban ecosystem services. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Modeling and Simulation)
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