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Keywords = Danish fire loss

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21 pages, 482 KiB  
Article
Modeling Data with Extreme Values Using Three-Spliced Distributions
by Adrian Bâcă and Raluca Vernic
Axioms 2024, 13(7), 473; https://doi.org/10.3390/axioms13070473 - 13 Jul 2024
Viewed by 935
Abstract
When data exhibit a high frequency of small to medium values and a low frequency of large values, fitting a classical distribution might fail. This is why spliced models defined from different distributions on distinct intervals are proposed in the literature. In contrast [...] Read more.
When data exhibit a high frequency of small to medium values and a low frequency of large values, fitting a classical distribution might fail. This is why spliced models defined from different distributions on distinct intervals are proposed in the literature. In contrast to the intensive study of two-spliced distributions, the case with more than two components is scarcely approached. In this paper, we focus on three-spliced distributions and on their ability to improve the modeling of extreme data. For this purpose, we consider a popular insurance data set related to Danish fire losses, to which we fit several three-spliced distributions; moreover, the results are compared to the best-fitted two-spliced distributions from previous studies. Full article
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17 pages, 496 KiB  
Article
Dependence Modelling for Heavy-Tailed Multi-Peril Insurance Losses
by Tianxing Yan, Yi Lu and Himchan Jeong
Risks 2024, 12(6), 97; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12060097 - 16 Jun 2024
Viewed by 1680
Abstract
The Danish fire loss dataset records commercial fire losses under three insurance coverages: building, contents, and profits. Existing research has primarily focused on the heavy-tail behaviour of the losses but ignored the relationship among different insurance coverages. In this paper, we aim to [...] Read more.
The Danish fire loss dataset records commercial fire losses under three insurance coverages: building, contents, and profits. Existing research has primarily focused on the heavy-tail behaviour of the losses but ignored the relationship among different insurance coverages. In this paper, we aim to model the aggregate loss for all three coverages. To study the pairwise dependence of claims from all types of coverage, an independent model, a hierarchical model, and some copula-based models are proposed for the frequency component. Meanwhile, we applied composite distributions to capture the heavy-tailed severity component. It is shown that consideration of dependence for the multi-peril frequencies (i) significantly enhances model goodness-of-fit and (ii) provides more accurate risk measures of the aggregated losses for all types of coverage in total. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Statistical Modelling in Risk Management)
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23 pages, 1072 KiB  
Article
Composite and Mixture Distributions for Heavy-Tailed Data—An Application to Insurance Claims
by Walena Anesu Marambakuyana and Sandile Charles Shongwe
Mathematics 2024, 12(2), 335; https://doi.org/10.3390/math12020335 - 19 Jan 2024
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2445
Abstract
This research provides a comprehensive analysis of two-component non-Gaussian composite models and mixture models for insurance claims data. These models have gained attraction in actuarial literature because they provide flexible methods for curve-fitting. We consider 256 composite models and 256 mixture models derived [...] Read more.
This research provides a comprehensive analysis of two-component non-Gaussian composite models and mixture models for insurance claims data. These models have gained attraction in actuarial literature because they provide flexible methods for curve-fitting. We consider 256 composite models and 256 mixture models derived from 16 popular parametric distributions. The composite models are developed by piecing together two distributions at a threshold value, while the mixture models are developed as convex combinations of two distributions on the same domain. Two real insurance datasets from different industries are considered. Model selection criteria and risk metrics of the top 20 models in each category (composite/mixture) are provided by using the ‘single-best model’ approach. Finally, for each of the datasets, composite models seem to provide better risk estimates. Full article
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