Search Results (3)

Money laundering poses a serious threat to financial stability and requires effective national frameworks for prevention. This study investigates how the quality of legal and institutional frameworks affects the effectiveness of national anti-money laundering (AML) systems and their implications for financial risk management. We conducted an empirical analysis of 132 jurisdictions in 2024 using the Basel AML Index (AMLI) and the WJP Rule of Law Index (RLI). The Random Forest method was employed to model the relationship between rule-of-law indicators and AML risk levels. Findings reveal a significant inverse relationship between rule-of-law indicators and AML risk levels, with an overall classification accuracy of 69.6%. The model performed best for low-risk countries (precision 75%, recall 92.31%), moderately for medium-risk countries (precision 65.22%, recall 78.95%), but failed to identify high-risk jurisdictions, suggesting a legal institutional “threshold” necessary for effective AML functioning. Key predictors included protection of fundamental rights and mechanisms for civil oversight, with strong negative correlations between AML risk and criminal justice impartiality (−0.35), civil justice fairness (−0.35), and equality before the law (−0.41). These results show that legal factors strongly affect AML risk and can guide regulators in improving risk-based standards, enhancing regulatory certainty, and managing financial risk. Full article

Purpose—This study examines the interaction of economic openness, governance, and money laundering. The paper’s main objective is to analyze how trade openness, foreign direct investment, and anti-corruption measures influence the risk of money laundering in specific economic blocs. Design/methodology/approach—This study analyzes these economic blocs (EU, G20, BRICS, and CIVETS) using annual data from the Basel Institute on Governance and World Bank statistics for 2012–2021. A panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) estimator is employed to examine the relationships among the variables, accounting for cross-sectional dependence and ensuring robust parameter estimation. The corruption control index is a proxy for governance effectiveness, though it does not directly measure regulatory strength. Future research should incorporate more specific variables to evaluate the regulatory impact. Findings—This study reveals significant variations in money laundering risks by a country’s income category and economic bloc influenced by economic openness and governance structures. Economic growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows exhibit contrasting effects on money-laundering risks; they tend to exacerbate risks in middle-income countries, while high-income nations demonstrated a lower risk of money laundering, likely due to more robust governance structures. Trade openness and anti-corruption measures generally reduced risks in wealthier countries, highlighting the importance of strong governance frameworks. These insights suggest that anti-money-laundering policies should be tailored to fit different regions’ unique economic and institutional contexts for enhanced effectiveness. Originality—This study employs a structured approach to analyzing a decade of panel data from key economic blocs, providing insights into the intricate relationships between governance, economic openness, and money laundering risks. Bridging the gap between theoretical research and practical, actionable strategies serves as a valuable resource for improving the effectiveness of anti-money-laundering (AML) measures on a global scale. Full article

Legalization of the proceeds of crime represents a worldwide problem with serious economic and social consequences. Information technologies in conjunction with advanced computer techniques are important tools in the fight against money laundering (ML), financial crime (FC) and terrorism financing (TF). Nowadays, the applied literature on ML/FC/TF uses much more mathematical modelling as a solving strategy to estimate illicit money flows. However, we perceive that there is preference of linear models of economical dependences and sometimes lack of acceptance of nonlinearity of such investigated economic systems. To characterize the risk of legalization of crime proceeds in a certain country, the scientific researchers use the Basel anti-money laundering (AML) index. To better understand how the global indicators (WCI, CPI, EFI, GII, SEDA, DBI, GSCI, HDI, VAT_GAP, GDP per capita) affect the level of risk of ML/TF in the countries of EU, the authors use a unique data set of 24 destination countries of EU over the period 2012–2019. The article deals with two main research goals: to develop a nonlinear model and optimize the ML/TF risk by implementation of nonlinear optimization methods. The authors contribute: (i) providing the cross-country statistical analysis; (ii) creating the new nonlinear mathematical-statistical computational model (MSCM); and (iii) describing the observed dependent variable (Basel AML index). This study deepens previous knowledge in this research field and, in addition to the panel regression analysis, also applies nonlinear regression analysis to model the behavior of the investigated system (with nonlinearity). Our results point out the differences between the estimates of the investigated system behavior when using panel and nonlinear regression analysis. Based on the developed MSC model, the optimization procedure is conducted by applying an interior point method and MATLAB toolboxes and the second goal is achieved: the statement that such values of input variables at which the risk of legalization of income from criminal activity will be minimal. Full article