Search Results (2)

We implemented the semantically open conceptual framework ‘Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism’ (MuSIASEM) to deal with nexus challenges in agricultural production systems in transboundary river basins, using the Iranian Aras River Basin as a case study. The performance of the agricultural sector was characterized for relevant typologies of crop production using metabolic profiles, i.e., inputs and outputs per ton of crop produced, per hectare of land use, and per hour of labor. This analysis was contextualized across hierarchical levels of analysis, including the agronomic context at the regional level (rainfed versus irrigated cultivation), the socio-economic and political context at the national level (food sovereignty; urbanization), and the hydro-ecological context of the larger transboundary river basin (water constraints, GHG emissions). We found that the simultaneous use of two different interrelated logics of aggregation—the productivity of land and labor (relevant for the agronomic and socio-economic dimension) and the density of flows under different land uses (relevant for the hydrological and ecological dimension)—allowed for the identification of trade-offs in policy deliberations. In the case of Iran, it showed that striving for strategic autonomy will exacerbate the current water crisis; with the current cropping patterns, agronomic improvements will not suffice to avert a water crisis. It was concluded that the proposed approach fills an important gap in nexus research, but to effectively guide nexus governance in the region, a co-production of the analysis with social actors as well as more complete data sets at the river basin level would be essential. Full article

Changes in land cover (LC) can alter the basin hydrology by affecting the evaporation, infiltration, and surface and subsurface flow processes, and ultimately affect river water quantity and quality. This study aimed to monitor and predict the LC composition of a major, transboundary basin contributing to the Caspian Sea, the Aras River Basin (ARB). To this end, four LC maps of ARB corresponding to the years 1984, 2000, 2010, and 2017 were generated using Landsat satellite imagery from Armenia and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The LC gains and losses, net changes, exchanges, and the spatial trend of changes over 33 years (1984–2017) were investigated. The most important drivers of these changes and the most accurate LC transformation scenarios were identified, and a land change modeler (LCM) was applied to predict the LC change for the years 2027 and 2037. Validation results showed that LCM, with a Kappa index higher than 81%, is appropriate for predicting LC changes in the study area. The LC changes observed in the past indicate significant anthropogenic impacts on the basin, mainly by constructing new reservoir dams and expanding agriculture and urban areas, which are the major water-consuming sectors. Results show that over the past 33 years, agricultural areas have grown by more than 57% from 1984 to 2017 in the study area. Results also indicate that the given similar anthropogenic activities will keep on continuing in the ARB, and agricultural areas will increase by 2% from 2017 to 2027, and by another 1% from 2027 to 2037. Results of this study can support transboundary decision-making processes to analyze potential adverse impacts following past policies with neighboring countries that share the same water resources. Full article