Search Results (3)

This paper provides recommendations on how large-scale household surveys should be conducted to generate the data needed to train models for satellite-based crop type mapping in smallholder farming systems. The analysis focuses on maize cultivation in Malawi and Ethiopia, and leverages rich, georeferenced plot-level data from national household surveys that were conducted in 2018–20 and integrated with Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and complementary geospatial data. To identify the approach to survey data collection that yields optimal data for training remote sensing models, 26,250 in silico experiments are simulated within a machine learning framework. The best model is then applied to map seasonal maize cultivation from 2016 to 2019 at 10-m resolution in both countries. The analysis reveals that smallholder plots with maize cultivation can be identified with up to 75% accuracy. Collecting full plot boundaries or complete plot corner points provides the best quality of information for model training. Classification performance peaks with slightly less than 60% of the training data. Seemingly little erosion in accuracy under less preferable approaches to georeferencing plots results in the total area under maize cultivation being overestimated by 0.16–0.47 million hectares (8–24%) in Malawi. Full article

Satellite data offer great promise for improving measures related to sustainable development goals. However, assessing satellite estimates is complicated by the fact that traditional ground-based measures of these same outcomes are often very noisy, leading to underestimation of satellite performance. Here, we quantify the amount of noise in traditional measures for three commonly studied outcomes in prior work—agricultural yields, household asset ownership, and household consumption expenditures—and present a theoretical basis for properly characterizing satellite performance in the presence of noisy ground data. We find that for both yield and consumption, repeated ground measures often disagree with each other, with less than half of the variability in one ground measure captured by the other. Estimates of the performance of satellite measures, in terms of squared correlation (r²), which account for this noise in ground data are accordingly higher, and occasionally even double, the apparent performance based on a naïve comparison of satellite and ground measures. Our results caution against evaluating satellite measures without accounting for noise in ground data and emphasize the benefit of estimating that noise by collecting at least two independent ground measures. Full article

The advent of multiple satellite systems capable of resolving smallholder agricultural plots raises possibilities for significant advances in measuring and understanding agricultural productivity in smallholder systems. However, since only imperfect yield data are typically available for model training and validation, assessing the accuracy of satellite-based estimates remains a central challenge. Leveraging a survey experiment in Mali, this study uses plot-level sorghum yield estimates, based on farmer reporting and crop cutting, to construct and evaluate estimates from three satellite-based sensors. Consistent with prior work, the analysis indicates low correlation between the ground-based yield measures (r = 0.33). Satellite greenness, as measured by the growing season peak value of the green chlorophyll vegetation index from Sentinel-2, correlates much more strongly with crop cut (r = 0.48) than with self-reported (r = 0.22) yields. Given the inevitable limitations of ground-based measures, the paper reports the results from the regressions of self-reported, crop cut, and (crop cut-calibrated) satellite sorghum yields. The regression covariates explain more than twice as much variation in calibrated satellite yields (R² = 0.25) compared to self-reported or crop cut yields, suggesting that a satellite-based approach anchored in crop cuts can be used to track sorghum yields as well or perhaps better than traditional measures. Finally, the paper gauges the sensitivity of yield predictions to the use of Sentinel-2 versus higher-resolution imagery from Planetscope and DigitalGlobe. All three sensors exhibit similar performance, suggesting little gains from finer resolutions in this system. Full article