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Authors = Djani Mohovic

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9 pages, 1030 KiB  
Communication
The Simulation of Sloped Bank Effect Influence on Container Ship Trajectory
by Mate Baric, Robert Mohovic, Djani Mohovic and Vinko Pavic
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2021, 9(11), 1283; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9111283 - 18 Nov 2021
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3366
Abstract
The latest container vessel grounding in the Suez Canal, which occurred on 23 March 2021 (the Ever Given), raised many questions regarding the safety of navigation. The sudden concern about safety is due to fears that traffic flow through the Suez Canal could [...] Read more.
The latest container vessel grounding in the Suez Canal, which occurred on 23 March 2021 (the Ever Given), raised many questions regarding the safety of navigation. The sudden concern about safety is due to fears that traffic flow through the Suez Canal could be blocked for longer periods of time. Besides external forces imposed by wind, in this case bank effect had a significant influence on the ship’s grounding. Bank effect occurs due to restricted water flow caused by narrow waterways. Many fairway design standards consider sloped banks such as those of the Suez Canal as unsubstantial in bank-effect forces. This paper analyses the impact of sloped banks on container ship trajectory and proposes minimal distances that may decrease bank-effect forces in order to reduce the risk of vessel grounding and increase the safety of navigation. However, this type of accident has happened before and may occur again due to a small sailing distance from the bank in cases where vessel speed is increased. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Navigability and Mooring)
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20 pages, 5518 KiB  
Article
The Development of a Bayesian Network Framework with Model Validation for Maritime Accident Risk Factor Assessment
by Lea Vojković, Ana Kuzmanić Skelin, Djani Mohovic and Damir Zec
Appl. Sci. 2021, 11(22), 10866; https://doi.org/10.3390/app112210866 - 17 Nov 2021
Cited by 17 | Viewed by 4416
Abstract
An integrative approach to maritime accident risk factor assessment in accordance with formal safety assessment is proposed, which exploits the multifaceted capabilities of Bayesian networks (BNs) by consolidation of modelling, verification, and validation. The methodology for probabilistic modelling with BNs is well known [...] Read more.
An integrative approach to maritime accident risk factor assessment in accordance with formal safety assessment is proposed, which exploits the multifaceted capabilities of Bayesian networks (BNs) by consolidation of modelling, verification, and validation. The methodology for probabilistic modelling with BNs is well known and its application to risk assessment is based on the model verified though sensitivity analysis only, while validation of the model is often omitted due to a lack of established evaluation measures applicable to scarce real-world data. For this reason, in this work, the modified Lyapunov divergence measure is proposed as a novel quantitative assessor that can be efficiently exploited on an individual accident scenario for contributing causal factor identification, and thus can serve as the measure for validation of the developed expert elicited BN. The proposed framework and its approach are showcased for maritime grounding of small passenger ships in the Adriatic, with the complete grounding model disclosed, quantitative validation performed, and its utilization for causal factor identification and risk factor ranking presented. The data from two real-world grounding cases demonstrate the explanatory capabilities of the developed approach. Full article
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